Cotton

Cotton

Postby Investor123 » Thu Aug 28, 2008 2:42 pm

The market is operating under the bullish influence of the reversal and outside day up from a one-year low on August 20th.

Outlook for significant battle for planted acreage and potential for tropical storm damage to supply this season are factors which helped to support the reversal.

Both Comm Channel and Parabolic have signal BUY for cotton.

I place my stop at the lowest point of the chart.

Bought 1 lot of cotton at 68.36
Stop level at 66.00
Target level at 77.00
Value of 1 point equals US$500
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Re: Cotton

Postby winston » Sun Nov 09, 2008 10:54 am

November 09, 2008
Financial Shit Rolls Down Global Hill

I've just returned from the land of sand and mutton... to read reports that the effects of the global financial crisis have finally made it all the way down to those who can least afford it. There are disturbing reports via Xinhua that as much as half of Xinjiang's recent cotton crop is unsold, and with no apparent buyers in site.

From AFP:

Half of the autumn cotton harvest in northwest China's Xinjiang region remains unsold as demand from textile and garment makers has weakened amid the global slowdown, state media said Thursday.

Planters in Xinjiang, China's largest cotton plantation area, are left with more than a million tonnes of unsold cotton, as bulging stockpiles have turned dealers into reluctant buyers, the Xinhua news agency said.

Even an offer from policy lender Agricultural Development Bank of China of 22.4 billion yuan (3.3 billion dollars) in credit to potential buyers has failed to trigger any major interest, it said.

What makes things even worse:

Millions of impoverished farmers find seasonal jobs in the region every year picking cotton, [Xinhua] said.

I'm not even that worried about the local farmers, to tell you the truth. They live off the land, have very few costs, and are able to get by even in very lean times.

I'm thinking more about about the hundreds of thousands of young unemployed guys — mostly Uyghurs — who mill around the cities of southern Xinjiang looking for piecemeal work... the sort of men usually found in outdoor pool halls. Most of them have nothing to do for much of the year, but late summer and fall is their busy season: picking pears, apples, but most of all cotton.

And what about the hundred of thousands of impoverished people from Sichuan who have been imported each year in recent years to pick cotton? They're out of a major source of income as well.

So... a mother in North Carolina decides to hold-off purchasing some new jeans or t-shirts at Wal-Mart for her kids; stockpiles build up at warehouses, and Wal-Mart reduces orders; clothing factories shut down in the Pearl River Delta; cotton cloth manufactures pull the plug in Xi'an; and, farmers and itinerant workers go hungry in Xinjiang.

What's next? I'm not making any predictions, especially outside of Xinjiang. But as for Uyghurs, when you mix increased economic desperation with a sense of increased repression in recent months, pressure is being added to an already dangerous situation. Let's hope it doesn't explode.

On the upside, there will probably be less forced cotton picking in the future for Xinjiang kids.
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Re: Cotton

Postby millionairemind » Mon Nov 17, 2008 3:28 pm

Cotton Exports Drop at Fastest Pace in Decade as Demand Slows

By Shruti Date Singh

Nov. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Cotton users are halting orders from the U.S., the world's biggest exporter, at the fastest pace in at least a decade as the economic slowdown erodes demand from China and sends prices to a six-year low.

Delays, cancellations and order reductions of U.S. upland cotton by foreign buyers rose almost sevenfold from a year earlier to 329,600 running bales (74,752 metric tons) in the first 13 weeks of the marketing year that started in August, data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture show. The level is the highest since at least 1998. A bale weighs 500 pounds.

Cotton prices fell 54 percent from a 12-year high in March, and Barclays Capital says demand is so weak no rally is likely to last. Commodity buyers from metal recyclers and sugar processors to clothing makers are struggling to honor contracts signed when prices were higher.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... refer=home
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Re: Cotton

Postby winston » Tue Dec 09, 2008 1:47 pm

China to buy more cotton for reserves

China's State Council has agreed to buy additional 1.5 million tonnes of domestic cotton for state reserves in an effort to aid domestic prices and protect farmers' incomes, traders said.

The planned purchase was in additional to 1.22 million tonnes since October, of which the government has already purchased 935,000 tonnes from farmers, mainly in the northwest region of Xinjiang, the largest cotton area.

"The extra amount has been approved by the State Council, which would be mainly in areas outside Xinjiang,'' said Cheng Jie, a manager with the state-backed China National Cotton Information Center.

Source: REUTERS
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Re: Cotton

Postby winston » Sat Oct 03, 2009 8:36 am

If you are interested in Noble and Olam, then you would need to this article..

Cotton Industry Faces ‘Huge Challenge,’ Chief Says (Update2)
By Claudia Carpenter

Oct. 2 (Bloomberg) -- The cotton industry faces a “huge challenge” as traders close, leaving Louis Dreyfus & Cie. SA, Olam International Ltd., Noble Group Ltd. and Cargill Inc. controlling more than half of the fiber traded worldwide, said the incoming president of the International Cotton Association.

“Five countries account for 80 percent of supply and five countries account for 80 percent of demand. The pace of integration is just massive,” he said.

Annual cotton demand is about 105 million bales, each weighing 480 pounds (218 kilograms), and traders focus on the 30 million to 35 million bales that are shipped worldwide, rather than consumed domestically, White said. China is the largest consumer and producer of the fiber.

Demand Outlook

Cotton prices have climbed 25 percent this year on speculation strengthening economies will spur increased consumption from textile manufacturers. Global cotton demand will exceed production by 376,000 metric tons in the marketing year that started Aug. 1, compared with a surplus of 889,000 tons a year earlier, Birkenhead, England-based research company Cotlook Ltd. estimated on Sept. 25.

Production may rise 10 percent to 116.1 million bales in 2010-11 from the previous year as prices climb, Joe Nicosia, CEO of Allenberg Cotton, said today. Output was 108.7 million bales in 2008-09, he said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... SAFegrEcNg
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Re: Cotton

Postby winston » Tue Sep 28, 2010 11:02 am

Not vested

DJ China To Sell 400,000 Tons Reserve Cotton To Stabilize Market

BEIJING (Dow Jones)--China will release 400,000 metric tons of cotton reserves to keep prices in check, the China Cotton Association said.

The latest release brings the volume of state cotton reserves the government has auctioned since August to 1 million tons.

'Recently, domestic cotton prices have been rising sharply...(so this is) to stabilize the domestic market and meet demand from textile firms,' the association said in a weekend statement.

The association didn't say when the auction would be held. They are typically within weeks of such announcements.

Source: Dow Jones Newswire
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Re: Cotton

Postby winston » Thu Oct 21, 2010 6:54 am

Cotton Exposure Through ETFs by Matt McCall

Over the last three months, the price of cotton futures has risen over 50 percent, propelled by speculation that demand will outstrip supply. Just last week, the price for a pound of cotton hit $1.198, the highest level since the New York Cotton Exchange was created—back in 1870.

The reason supply concerns have hit such panic stages is due to inclement weather around the globe.

China, the No. 1 producer of cotton, will see its crop fall by 5.4 percent in 2010, drowned out by a series of heavy rains.

Pakistan, the No. 4 producer, also had to cope with devastating floods that ravaged the nation.

Add in the increasing demand from emerging markets around the world, and it's no wonder the final equation equals higher cotton prices. (Of course, don't forget the investors playing the momentum for short-term gains; that helps add to the magnitude of the recent rally, too.)

http://www.hardassetsinvestor.com/featu ... -etfs.html
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Re: Cotton

Postby winston » Mon Jan 17, 2011 11:18 am

Still expecting record cotton harvest but forecast has been revised downwards by 8% due to the Australian Floods.

Source: CNBC
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Re: Cotton

Postby winston » Tue Feb 08, 2011 12:19 pm

Dennis Gartman: Cotton is probably at it's peak only
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Re: Cotton

Postby winston » Sat Feb 19, 2011 10:06 am

Cotton Falls From Record as Cotlook Forecasts Global Supply to Top Demand
By Luzi Ann Javier and Debarati Roy

Cotton futures fell from a record on speculation that the global crop will increase, replenishing a deficit that led prices double in the past five months.

Production will exceed demand by 1.2 million metric tons in the season starting Aug. 1, making up for about a third of the shortfall in the past two years, Cotlook Ltd., an industry researcher, said yesterday.

Earlier, cotton jumped the most allowed by ICE Futures U.S. to a record $2.0893 a pound and then tumbled by the limit.

Prices may “wane over the balance of 2011 as global production rebounds and inventories begin to rebuild,” Luke Mathews, a strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, said in a report.

“The market was going crazy because of short-covering by mills,” said Ron Lawson, a managing director at Logic Advisors, a commodity consultant in Sonoma, California. “We will see a temporary pullback, but the demand story remains intact.”

World output will gain 13 percent to a record 27.65 million tons, more than the projected 4.4 percent increase in consumption Birkenhead, England-based Cotlook said yesterday in its first estimates for the new season.

In China, the world’s biggest producer and consumer, output will increase 15 percent, the company said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-1 ... emand.html
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