Oil 12 (Feb 21 - Dec 24)

[winston]

Oil oversupply is keeping prices low, but the situation is about to flip, Occidental CEO says

by Jennifer Sor

The narrative of the oil market will soon be flipped on its head, according to Occidental CEO Vicki Hollub.

Oversupply will soon ease and the market will be undersupplies, sending prices upward.

Oil could be in a new "supercycle," Goldman Sachs analysts said recently.

All the big fields have been found. So, if you take the 20 largest fields in the world, 97% of the volume from those was discovered before 2000. So we're in a situation now where in a couple years' time, we're going to be very short on supply, so the situation is going to flip,"

Chronic underinvestment in the industry also means oil and other commodities are in a "supercycle," which could push crude as high as $100 a barrel, Goldman Sachs previously estimated.

The effects of OPEC cuts have been muted so far. That's partly due to booming production elsewhere, particularly in the US, which churned out a record volume of oil in 2023, with new records also being eyed for 2024 and 2025.

Source: Business Insider

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-over ... 45586.html

[behappyalways]

Diesel Prices Primed To Rise Sharply In 2024
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/diesel ... arply-2024

[behappyalways]

Visualizing The Rise Of The US As Top Global Crude Oil Producer
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/visual ... l-producer

[winston]

Oil prices settle lower on global demand worries

The premium for prompt US crude futures to the second-month contract more than doubled, hitting a high of US$1.71 a barrel – its widest in roughly four months. This encourages energy companies to sell now rather than paying to store product for future months.

China announced its biggest ever reduction in the benchmark mortgage rate, the largest since the reference rate was introduced in 2019 and far more than analysts had expected.

"The fact that the crude market hasn't responded more positively shows you the depths of the oil demand problems in China".

The IEA estimated global oil demand will grow by 1.22 million barrels per day (bpd) this year. Opec's growth forecast is 2.25 million bpd.

US oil refiners are running at weak levels due to seasonal maintenance and unplanned outages, but warmer winter weather may prompt refiners to ramp up rates.

Source: Reuters

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/202 ... nd-worries

[winston]

Oil Holds Gain as Signs of Tight Market Offsets Demand Concerns

by Yongchang Chin

Oil held a gain as signs of a tightening crude market countered concerns about weak demand, keeping prices in a narrow range.

American Petroleum Institute reported a big rise in US crude stockpiles.

Crude is trading near the upper band of the year’s range as investors juggle a gloomy demand outlook from top importer China with rising geopolitical risks in the Middle East and disruptions in the Red Sea.

Source: Bloomberg

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-hold ... 27100.html

[winston]

Eurasia Group: CN Oil Demand Growth in 2024 May Just Reach Half of Pre-Covid Levels

onsultancy Eurasia Group released a report, suggesting that China's oil demand growth this year could be half of its pre-Covid level in 2019 as the country's key economic sectors slow down.

China is unlikely to return to its oil-intensive growth model this year as the construction and automotive sectors look weak, the report said, estimating that the country's oil demand growth is expected to be between about 250,000 and 350,000 barrels per day, or less than half of what it was in 2019, according to the report.

Even if China's property sector recovers, it is unlikely that future oil demand growth will reach pre-pandemic levels due to the country's soaring debt levels, declining population and lower economic growth forecasts, meaning the growth in China's fuel demand that the oil industry has relied on for the past 20 years is no longer there, the report added.

Source: AAStocks Financial News

http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/ ... -news/AAFN

[behappyalways]

The Shadow Tankers Sneaking Russian Oil Past Western Sanctions | WSJ
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=16c32pvyx7k

[behappyalways]

Crude oil is breaking out (green line)
https://twitter.com/biancoresearch/stat ... 2386461144

[behappyalways]

Saudi Aramco makes a lot of money
https://twitter.com/Mayhem4Markets/stat ... 8586006528

[winston]

Citi Expects Brent Oil May Fall to US$55/ Barrel by End-2025, Calls on Oil Producers to Hedge 2025 Output in Advance

Citigroup released a report on last Sunday (17th) saying that the 1Q24 international oil prices continued to be at a relatively high level, and expecting that the OPEC+ will maintain production cuts until December 2024, but still recommended oil producers to hedge their 2025 output in advance to beware of a sharp fall in oil prices.

Citigroup expected brent oil futures to average US$78 per barrel in 2Q24 before falling to US$74 per barrel in 3Q24, and further decrease to US$70 per barrel in 4Q24.

Citigroup's 2025 oil price expectation is unexpectedly pessimistic, with an US$65 per barrel estimation for 1Q25, followed by US$60 per barrel for 2Q-3Q25.

The price for 4Q25 may decline to US$55 per barrel.

In the electronic trading session, Brent oil futures for May delivery slightly slid by less than 0.1% to last at US$86.84 per barrel.

Source: AAStocks Financial News

http://www.aastocks.com/en/usq/news/com ... 562&catg=4