new all-time high for Gold
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Gold stocks have been lagging the broad stock market for most of the past 13 years. Last week, this ratio chart hit its lowest point in two decades. In other words, gold stocks are cheap.
So, as we head into March – which is a seasonally bullish time of the year for the gold sector – I like the setup for at least a short-term rally in gold stocks and perhaps something even more dramatic.
Gold is on an incredible run higher. But the metal’s COT shows most investors are indifferent. Sentiment is in “no man’s land” despite the new highs.
That won’t last forever. Gold prices will likely keep rallying, which will eventually attract new money. That should lead to even more gains before sentiment becomes too bullish and prices reverse.
Put simply, gold still has much higher to go before we get to that point. That’s why you should consider owning the metal today.
Other than low valuations, four additional factors are tipping the scales in favor of speculating on the gold. In no particular order, the gold price could benefit from…
Falling interest rates – The gold price almost always rises when interest rates trend lower. Chairman Powell reiterated on Wednesday that his team intends to initiate a new rate-cut cycle by lowering interest rates three times this year.
Weakening dollar – Because interest rates are falling, the dollar exchange rate might also drift lower. A weak dollar usually manifests itself as a strong gold price.
Rising geopolitical tensions – Almost nothing benefits from geopolitical tension or wars, other than weapons manufacturers… and gold.
Central Bank Buying – On a net basis, the world’s central banks have become large, consistent gold buyers. In 2022, they bought more than 1,000 metric tonnes – equal to more than one-quarter of the world’s annual gold production.
Given the bullish factors that are aligning behind the gold price, the yellow metal seems likely to deliver some upside surprises over the coming months.
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