Aluminum

[winston]

Global Primary Aluminum Output Rises by 3.9% YoY in 1H24; CN Output Climbs 5.2% YoY

The data from the International Aluminum Institute (IAI) shows that global primary aluminum output for 1H24 rose by 3.9% YoY to 35.84 million metric tons, according to Reuters.

Of which, China's output climbed by 5.2% YoY to 21.26 million metric tons, while aluminum output in Western and Central Europe inclined by 2.2% YoY to 1.37 million metric tons.

The output in Russia and Eastern Europe/ Middle East grew by 2.4%. 0.7% YoY to 2.04 million/ 3.1 million tons, respectively.

Global primary aluminum production rose 3.2% YoY to 5.94 million tons in June, the data added.

Aluminum prices increased to a nearly-2-year high at the end of May, prompting producers to increase output.

The prices of aluminum subsequently slumped 17%.

Source; AAStocks Financial News

http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/ ... -news/AAFN

[winston]

China to extend record aluminum output amid ample power

National output is expected to rise 3% in the fourth quarter from a year ago to 11 million tons

China’s smelters, which account for about half of the world’s aluminum, churned out a record 3.69 million tons in August.

Demand has been healthy despite a slowing economy due to the lightweight metal’s burgeoning applications in clean energy and power transmission.

But producing aluminum is notoriously electricity-thirsty. In Yunnan, the province that accounts for about 12 per cent of China’s supply, smelters rely on hydropower, which has been pinched in recent years by drought.

Hydro generation in the first eight months of the year surged 22 per cent to 882 billion kilowatt hours.

China has also built enormous stockpiles of coal, its mainstay fuel, which mitigates the risk of outages at smelters elsewhere.

Inventories, meanwhile, have slumped more than 20 per cent from their peak in March to 656,000 tons, according to SMM.

Output growth is expected to slow to 2 per cent next year as China runs up against its capacity cap of 45 million tons.

Source: Bloomberg

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/intern ... mple-power

[behappyalways]

"No Signs Of A Turnaround": Alumina Prices Near Record As Global Supply Chain Snarls Mount
https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/n ... arls-mount

[winston]

Aluminium soars as China scraps tax sweetener that fuelled exports

China said that it would cancel a tax rebate that’s helped fuel a decades-long boom in exports and shielded an industry prone to overcapacity.

China’s aluminium industry historically has exported significant amounts of the metal as semi-finished products, which are used in value-added manufacturing or simply re-melted into commodity-grade shapes.

China’s exports of semi-finished aluminium rose to 5.2 million tonnes in 2023. That’s equivalent to about 7 per cent of the global aluminium market.

The tax rebate – applied across a range of aluminium products including pipes, plates, sheets and strips – was staggered up to 13 per cent. It was also removed for copper and lowered for some refined oil, solar, battery and non-metallic mineral products.

Source: Bloomberg

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/compan ... ed-exports

[winston]

Trump to impose 25 per cent tariffs on steel and aluminium imports on Monday

Will impose 25 per cent tariffs on all steel and aluminium imports, including from Canada and Mexico, as well as other import duties later in the week.

Would announce “reciprocal tariffs” – “probably on Tuesday or Wednesday” – meaning that the US would impose import duties on products in cases where another country has levied duties on US goods.

Source: SCMP

https://www.scmp.com/news/world/united- ... e=homepage

[winston]

Bloomberg foresees that the global aluminium market may see a deficit as the demand growth rate outpaces output growth

Aluminium demand is expected to weaken by 2.9%, driven by China’s slower consumption growth as well as Europe’s continuous subdued demand as automotive original equipment manufacturers or OEMs cut production.

On the supply side, China’s aluminium output nears its 45 tonne annual capacity following strong hydro-powered operations, while delays in new plants in Indonesia and India limit global production growth.

This factored into Affin Hwang’s revision of the London Metal Exchange aluminium price assumption upwards to US$2,525 and US$2,575 per tonne for 2025 and 2026, reflecting the demand growth outpacing the expected supply growth.

Meanwhile, alumina prices have dropped to around US$565 per tonne from a high of US$800 per tonne in December 2024, following supply recovery from Brazil, Guinea and China.

The global alumina market is expected to enter a surplus in 2025, with supply growing 4% – outpacing demand growth of 1.3% – driven by increased output from China, Indonesia and India.

Source: The Star

[winston]

Strong price momentum to continue - Aluminium Sector

Aluminium price to increase by 7.8% in 2025, supported by intact demand growth

China aluminium utilisation reaching full; Capacity cap being a strong driver for aluminium price hikes

Falling alumina prices due to capacity building to bolster better profitability in aluminium

Top pick: China Hongqiao on its attractive dividend yield (c.10%), higher-than-peers profitability due to high self-supply rate, improving production efficiency and product matrix

Source: DBS

https://www.dbs.com/insightsdirect/land ... rtid=42493