Exactly what I want to see in a trade
Source: Daily Crux
http://thecrux.com/sjuggerud-exactly-wh ... e-part-ii/
According to a July 2016 World Nuclear Association (WNA) report, France exports more electricity than any other country on the planet.
That is largely a result of how cheap nuclear power is to produce, resulting in more than €3 billion ($3.3 billion) a year in export revenues, and the best domestic tariff regimen on the continent.
The nuclear sector also provides another active export market.
Reactor technology along with processed fuel and related services provide opportunities for exports to broader markets.
Third, as the WNA report noted, about 17% of all French electricity comes from recycled nuclear fuel.
Not everything on the French nuclear front is positive, however. Despite being a nice contributor to any initiative (like the Paris Climate Agreement) intended to lower the carbon footprint, public support for nuclear power is declining.
Some of this results from increasing fears of accidents, even though the French have a spotless record here. Supporters of solar and wind power also criticize the reliance on nuclear reactors.
But most criticism comes for the high costs of maintaining the nuclear infrastructure, and the heavy bills coming due for refurbishing aging nuclear power plants.
Similar concerns are slowing down the adoption of nuclear power elsewhere (apart from Asia). But the Paris Climate Agreement will affect much more than just nuclear power…
Three major influences on demand will be moving into the market at the same time... and the effect on prices could be explosive.
First, Japan is hoping to restart about 21 of the 54 nuclear reactors it shut down after the Fukushima disaster.
Second, a surge of new nuclear plants will be starting up. According to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development's International Energy Agency, "installed nuclear capacity could reach 1,200 gigawatts in 2050, with annual electricity production of nearly 10,000 terawatt hours. This would represent around 24% of electricity generated worldwide, making nuclear the single largest source of electricity."
Third, about 25% of existing supply contracts will expire over the next two years... and about 75% will expire between now and 2025. That means most of the world's nuclear utilities will be trying to secure new long-term contracts at the very same time that a wave of nuclear reactors will resume operating... or begin operating for the first time.
Apparently, a handful of nuclear power companies are fearful of this exact scenario. So they're locking down long-term supplies now... at double the current spot price of uranium.
The Global X Uranium ETF (NYSE: URA), which holds a basket of uranium mining companies, has advanced nearly 20% during the last five weeks.
1. Japan is getting its nuclear energy back on track
2. 61 new reactors are under construction around the world
3. Another 149 new reactors are planned and
4. Long-term uranium contracts are set to expire.
1. Bigger than you think
Carbon dioxide is the environmental 'bad guy' of the moment. Nuclear power doesn't release carbon dioxide. And it's an always-on power source, making it a good option for baseload power.
Nuclear power made up 60% of the "clean" power generated in the United States in 2015. And nuclear power plants ran at 90% of capacity, far above solar, wind, and even hydro power plants.
2. Nuclear in China
China, the world's most populous nation, has 35 reactors up and running today. For comparison, the United States, a mature market, has around 60 nuclear power plants.
According to Cameco, the world's largest independent uranium miner, China has 20 more facilities under construction right now.
However, those 20 reactors could be just the start. According to Energy Fuels, the giant nation has plans to build 177 more reactors.
3. Nuclear in India
Right now, the country has 22 nuclear power plants up and running, with five under construction. And it has another 64 planned or proposed, according to Energy Fuels.
4. Beyond the giants
There are 57 nuclear reactors under construction today, only around 25 of which are in China and India.
5. Open and shut
New construction is expected to more than offset retirements, leading to a net increase in nuclear power and uranium demand.
People expected Trump’s team, which is pushing deregulation, to lift roadblocks to new nuclear development.
Grant Isaac, Cameco’s chief financial officer, said that utilities won’t need new uranium until about 2022.
China, which has 35 operating nuclear power plants, is building 20 more right now. And according to data from Energy Fuels, China has plans to build 177 more reactors.
Meanwhile, India, which has 22 nuclear power plants now, is building five more. And it has another 64 planned or proposed.
Worldwide, there are 58 nuclear power plants under construction. Only 25 are in China and India. So this is a global trend.
So my approach to this industry would be “buy the dips.” There’s always a “disaster” now and then. Wait for it and buy on the cheap. Because those long-term trends are both undeniable and irresistible.
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