Coal 02 (Jul 12 - Dec 25)

[behappyalways]

[经济信息联播]煤炭市场低迷 鄂尔多斯过半煤矿关停
http://jingji.cntv.cn/2014/09/16/VIDE14 ... 5803.shtml

[winston]

'Dirty' coal set to go in cleanup

Beijing will ban the sale and import of "dirty" coal in less than four months, in an anti-pollution move that could have repercussions for key exporters.

Coal with sulfur content of more than 3 percent and ash content of more than 40 percent will no longer be permitted as of January 1, said a notice on the website of the National Development and Reform Commission, the country's top economic planner.

Premier Li Keqiang in March said China "will declare war against pollution and fight it with the same determination we battled poverty."

The government will shut 50,000 small coal-fired furnaces this year, clean up coal-burning power plants and remove six million high-emission vehicles from the roads, Li said.

Australia whose economic growth has been fueled in part by Chinese demand may feel the brunt of the impact of Beijing's latest move as it exports 50 million tones of thermal coal a year to China.

Source: AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE

[winston]

Resource ALERT: This news just sent “shockwaves” through the coal market by Dave Forest

Breaking news: the thermal coal market is reeling this week. After the world’s biggest consumer of the commodity announced some sweeping changes to its rules.

That’s of course China. Where officials have finally moved on an import ban for shipments of certain types of coal coming into the country.

A notice of new rules around the coal ban was officially posted on the website of the National Development and Reform Commission on Monday. Here’s how the ban breaks down (summary courtesy of the keen China-watchers at the Black China blog).

There are three levels to the ban. Under the first level, coastal Chinese cities are restricted from importing coal with sulfur levels above 1%, and ash content greater than 20%.

Level two prohibits the transport of coal for over 600 kilometres inland if it has a calorific value of 3,940 kcal/kg or less. Or if the coal has sulfur content exceeding 1%, or ash content above 20%.

Level three applies a total ban across the country to coal with a sulphur content greater than 3% and ash content greater than 40%.

The new rules are interesting in a couple of ways.

First, as expected, authorities largely went after sulfur and ash content − rather than overall calorific value, as was originally the plan according to reports. This was apparently in response to objections from coal consumers. Who felt that an outright ban on low heat-content coal would make it too hard to find supply.

But the government didn’t totally let buyers off the hook here. Coastal cities will still be able to use all varieties of heat-content coal. But inland consumers will be restricted to higher-calorie products.

Analysis is that these rules will hit Australian coal the hardest. Although there are still plenty of mines in that nation producing coal that would pass spec.

A final part of the rules is an outright ban on low-calorie lignite coal, with a sulfur content greater than 1.5% and ash greater than 30%. Which could [b]affect Indonesia [/b]− currently the largest supplier of lignite to China.

The ban comes into effect on January 1. But it appears imports could start dropping during the fourth quarter, ahead of the rules being implemented.

Whatever the case, the global coal market has been changed in a big way.

Here’s to banning the burn…

Source: Pierce Points

[winston]

Coal stocks are stuck in a downtrend… big coal producer Peabody sinks to its lowest level in a decade.

[winston]

Coal stocks look ready to break down… big coal sector fund KOL is sitting just off a five-year low.

[winston]

Coal bear market continues… coal producer fund KOL plunges to a new five-year low.

[behappyalways]

[经济信息联播]煤炭脱困进行时：我国煤炭总体过剩 局部紧张
http://jingji.cntv.cn/2014/10/18/VIDE14 ... 2272.shtml

[winston]

not vested

It's Almost Time to Buy This Beaten-Up Energy Sector By Jeff Clark
Thursday, November 13, 2014

Get ready to buy coal stocks…

Like most natural resources, the coal sector has been clobbered over the past three years. The Market Vectors Coal Fund (KOL) – which holds a basket of global coal stocks – is down 65% since 2011.

You can blame the decline on too much supply, too little demand, and an increased regulatory environment. That has all contributed to the drop in coal prices and the dismal performance of coal stocks.

But the real reason is simpler… It's just the normal boom-and-bust cycle of the natural resource industry.

And this cycle could soon make contrarian traders a lot of money. Let me explain…

Natural resources are cyclical. Their prices move in waves. They go through big booms and busts.

Boom periods can last for years and attract tons of money to the sector – causing prices to boom. That leads to overproduction and malinvestment, which eventually leads to a peak in the boom cycle and the start of the "bust" period.

Bust periods can also last for years. Prices decline. Bad investments get written off. Marginal producers go out of business. Investors give up on the sector.

Boom periods are the party. Bust periods are the hangover.

The best time to buy natural resource stocks is near the end of the hangover. And that's where coal stocks are right now.

Think about this…

Coal sells for about $60 per ton. That's below its cost of production, which is closer to $80 per ton. Coal miners can't sell the stuff at a profit. So investors are dumping the stocks. And the share prices are reflecting the worst of all possible outcomes.

But coal isn't going away. It still provides more of the world's energy supply than any other source. So the current price dilemma is temporary. At some point, supply will fall, demand will increase, prices will come back into line, and coal miners will return to profitability.

That's why we told you the sector was shaping up to be an excellent contrarian trade back in June. But the problem with most contrarians is they tend to be early. So we recommended waiting to buy.

Now, KOL is trading 10% below where it was in June. It's even more of a bargain now. And there are two potential "buy" signals setting up.

Take a look at this chart of KOL with its Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) momentum indicator…

Please Enable Images to See this

KOL fell hard throughout September and early October. This caused its MACD – a measure of overbought and oversold conditions – to get extremely oversold. But KOL has bounced along with the rest of the stock market over the past three weeks. And it may be setting up for a rally.

Traders looking to buy should wait for one of two signals to happen:

1. KOL to fall back down and make a slightly lower low around $15.50 per share. Because KOL's MACD got so oversold at KOL's lows three weeks ago, it is not likely to fall as low on any additional declines in the stock. This would create positive divergence (KOL making lower lows on the chart while the MACD makes higher lows) – which is often an early sign of an impending rally. This would be an ideal time for bargain hunters to buy.

2. KOL to pull back a bit now, form a higher low, and then rally back above $17 per share. We would have the first set of higher highs and higher lows. And that's the definition of an uptrend. Traders will want to hop on board if this happens.

Keep an eye on the chart of KOL. We'll likely get one of these triggers within the next few weeks. And that's when it will be time to buy.


Source: www.growthstockwire.com

[winston]

<Research Report>G Sachs: Mainland coal price sees short-term upside but unlikely to sustain

Goldman Sachs said in the latest research report that with effective from today, CHINA SHENHUA (01088.HK) will raise its 5,500Kcal/kg coal price by RMB15/t to RMB539/t.

The research house expected that other major coal miners, such as CHINA COAL (01898.HK), YITAI COAL (03948.HK) and Datong Coal Industry (601001.SH) will follow the price hike.

It was believed that the Mainland's coal price has further short-term upside, yet the price is unlikely to repeat the 26% rebound that happened in the fourth quarter of 2013 as the current demand outlook is weaker compared to the year-ago period.

Source: AAStocks Financial News

[winston]

CHINA COAL proposes new coal prices in Dec

CHINA COAL (01898.HK) 0.000 (0.000%) Short selling $15.23M; Ratio 17.303% unveiled new coal prices in December, with all coal types up RMB15/tonne other than Pingsi coal (平四煤種) which was raised by RMB12/tonne, the Mainland media reported, citing a person familiar with the group.

Source: AAStocks Financial News