The Fed now admits some countries are moving to gold. But says it’s a small group.
https://x.com/balajis/status/1796208316907126841
The stage is set for gold prices to potentially shine further this year, buoyed by uncertainties triggered by geopolitical risks, the trade war between China and the United States and the likely gradual interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed).
Anticipation of central banks easing monetary policy globally, continued gold purchases by central banks, geopolitical concerns and gold’s role as a safe haven and portfolio diversifier.
Essential to acknowledge potential risks which include a prolonged delay in the Fed’s policy pivot, an unexpected rate hike by the Fed (which is not our base case) or a significant reduction in geopolitical tensions.
Exchange-traded funds continue to liquidate but over-the-counter and real money purchases have been strong. Net long positions on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange are high but may not rise much further. Market sentiment is clearly bullish and while the near-term upward trajectory shows no signs of slacking, we think prices are progressively overstretched.
Gold prices have risen 12% year to date. And mining stocks have stormed higher, too. The gold-mining sector has soared about 21% since March.
We expect this huge gold rally to continue from here. But at least in the short term, trouble is on the horizon for mining businesses…
We should see future gains for mining companies as the gold rally continues. But if you’ve been debating buying into the boom, you might want to wait a bit longer before joining in…
And if you are invested in miners, keep an eye on your position, and expect some volatility ahead.
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