Sugar, Stevia etc.

[winston]

Longest Sugar Glut in Decade Extends on Indian Crop: Commodities

Indian farmers may reap at least 6 percent more sugar than forecast by the government and industry, extending the longest global glut in more than a decade and a bear market that began in September.


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-11-0 ... ities.html

[winston]

China Said to Have Bought 250,000 Tons of Sugar as Price Falls

China, the second-biggest sugar consumer, bought 250,000 metric tons of the sweetener as a 23 percent decline in prices in the past year , has made imports more attractive, said two executives with direct knowledge of the matter.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-1 ... falls.html

[winston]

Sugar: A global surplus of sugar, due to higher-than-expected production from Brazil and India, should prevent major changes in prices for the next two years.

Sugar ended 2012 at 19.2 cents/pound. The 2013 projection is 19 cents/pound, down 1.04% from 2012.

The 2014 projection is 20 cents/pound, up 4.17% from 2012.

Source: MS

[winston]

SUGAR: Prices dived to multi-year lows, weighed down by worries over emerging markets turmoil and plentiful supplies.

Sugar sank to 14.70 US cents per pound in New York, the lowest point since June 2010.

In London, the commodity touched the weakest level since April 2009, at $399.10 a tonne.

"With sugar prices stuck in freefall since mid-October 2013, the recent events in emerging markets, particularly in Argentina, have led to concerns of contagion to Brazil and further pressure on sugar prices," said Societe Generale analyst Christopher Narayanan.

"For the moment, then, sugar prices remain pressured by a larger than expected global surplus, a strong start to the Thai harvest, uncertainty surrounding India's export policy and support programmes, and tepid demand."


Source: AP

[winston]

Hedge Funds Bet on Sugar as Dryness Threatens Crops

By Luzi Ann Javier and Debarati Roy

Hedge funds got more bullish on sugar before prices climbed to the highest since October as dry weather threatened supply from India to Brazil.


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-06-2 ... ities.html

[winston]

Sugar plummets… Dow Jones sugar fund SGG is down 25%-plus over the past 10 months.

[winston]

Sugar plummets… Dow Jones sugar fund SGG is down 25%-plus over the past 10 months.

[behappyalways]

Watch John Oliver’s Brilliant Takedown of the Sugar Industry
http://time.com/3541173/john-oliver-sug ... -takedown/

[winston]

Sugar continues to fall… Dow Jones sugar fund SGG is down nearly 30% in 2014.

[winston]

A Commodity Speculation for 2015 By Matt Badiali

Sugar is a commodity to watch this year.

In November, I told you about the bear market in the sweet stuff. From 2010 to early 2011, sugar saw a huge boom. Prices surged from less than $0.14 per pound to more than $0.34 - a 142% increase.

Rising prices caused farmers all over the world to increase their sugar production. But this led to an oversupply. And sugar entered "bust" mode. Prices fell 50% from their 2011 high to November.

But I said the bottom was likely in for sugar... farmers were cutting production and demand was rising.

My call was a little early. Sugar prices have fallen around 3% since my essay. But that's about to change...

Most sugar (around 80%) comes from sugar cane, which is grown in hot, wet climates around the world - like in Brazil, Thailand, and India.

Sugar cane is also a "semi-perennial" crop, which means it's hard for farmers to switch to another crop (like when prices fall).

So even though some farmers have been switching crops because of low sugar prices, the vast majority haven't. And world sugar production - and prices - haven't changed much.

But now, sugar production is set to fall in the world's main sugar producing (and exporting) countries...

According to Georgia Twomey, a sugar analyst for the giant Dutch bank Rabobank, "below-average rainfall forecasts and the potential of an El Niño event raises concerns for [the] 2015 [sugar crop]."

An El Niño event occurs when the equatorial Pacific Ocean becomes unusually warm. And it has impacts on weather worldwide.

In Australia (the world's ninth-largest sugar producer, which accounts for 7% of the world's sugar exports) and India (the world's second-largest sugar producer, which accounts for 3% of the world's sugar exports), it causes severe drought - which limits sugar cane growth.

In Brazil (the world's largest sugar producer, which accounts for 45% of the world's sugar exports), it has the opposite effect. An El Niño event causes torrential rains, which are just as bad as drought. High-water levels increase disease and pests. It also makes harvesting sugar cane more difficult.

According to commodity broker Marex Spectron, the El Niño in 1997 caused sugar production in Brazil to decline by 2%. That was the only year in the last decade when production fell.

According to the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), there is a 50% to 60% chance of El Niño-like conditions over the next two months. So we could soon see sugar production decrease significantly.

We're already seeing falling forecasts. For example, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) reduced this year's Brazilian and Thai production forecasts by 2 million and 1.1 million metric tons, respectively.

Meanwhile, as you can see in the table below, demand for sugar is increasing - including in the countries that import the most sugar, like China and India.

Sugar / Consumption / Country
2013/ 2014* 2014/ 2015*
India 26.0 27.0
European Union 18.3 18.5
China 16.5 17.4
Brazil 11.3 11.5
United States 10.7 10.8
World Total 167.3 171.0
* In millions of metric tons
Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture

Less supply with increasing demand should cause sugar prices to rally this year.

Investors looking to speculate on increasing sugar prices can buy one of these three exchange-traded funds with exposure to sugar - the iPath Dow Jones-UBS Sugar Subindex Total Return Fund (SGG), the iPath Pure Beta Sugar Fund (SGAR), and the Teucrium Sugar Fund (CANE). These funds are already up an average of 5% since January 6 on recent sugar-price strength. And they should continue to do well as sugar prices recover.

Source: Growth Stock Wire