Oil 13 (Oct 23 - Dec 25)

[winston]

Trump's 10% oil tariff could cost foreign producers US$10b annually, Goldman Sachs says

By Sherin Elizabeth Varghese & Noel John

A proposed 10% US oil tariff could cost foreign producers US$10 billion (RM44.21 billion) per year, as Canadian and Latin American heavy crudes remain reliant on US refiners due to limited alternative buyers and processing capabilities.

Plans to impose a 25% tariff on Mexican crude and a 10% levy on Canadian crude starting in March.

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Trump's 10% oil tariff could cost foreign producers US$10b annually, Goldman Sachs says
OIL & GAS
Trump's 10% oil tariff could cost foreign producers US$10b annually, Goldman Sachs says
By Sherin Elizabeth Varghese & Noel John / Reuters
22 Feb 2025, 10:13 am

main news image
BENGALURU (Feb 22): Goldman Sachs said on Friday a proposed 10% US oil tariff could cost foreign producers US$10 billion (RM44.21 billion) per year, as Canadian and Latin American heavy crudes remain reliant on US refiners due to limited alternative buyers and processing capabilities.

President Donald Trump plans to impose a 25% tariff on Mexican crude and a 10% levy on Canadian crude starting in March, a delay from his initial proposal.

Despite this, Goldman expects the US to remain the primary destination for heavy crude, as advanced refining capabilities and low costs continue to make American refiners the most competitive buyers.

Goldman estimates light oil prices would need to rise by 50 cents per barrel to make medium crude from the Middle East more attractive to Asian refiners, as US Gulf Coast refiners prioritise domestic light crude over imported medium grades.

US consumers would face an annual tariff cost of US$22 billion, while the government would generate US$20 billion in revenue.

Source: Reuters

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/745449

[behappyalways]

Oil Prices Plunge As OPEC+ Confirms Output Hikes Amid Trump Pressure
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/oil-pr ... p-pressure

[winston]

US energy chief will seek US$20 billion to refill oil reserve

US Energy Secretary Chris Wright plans to seek up to US$20 billion (HK$156 billion) to accomplish President Donald Trump’s goal of refilling the nation’s depleted oil reserve to its maximum capacity.

The initiative, which may take years, would restore holdings “just close to the top” to maintain efficient operating status, Wright said in an interview on Thursday in Louisiana after touring a natural-gas export plant.

Trump said he planned to replenish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve during his inaugural address in January, part of a broad embrace of conventional energy that’s also included pledges to boost domestic oil production and roll back regulation.

The reserve was created in a network of salt caverns in the aftermath of the Arab oil embargo in the 1970s. It has maximum capacity of about 700 million barrels.

Congress will need to approve funding to refill the system, which isn’t guaranteed.

Source: Bloomberg

https://www.thestandard.com.hk/breaking ... il-reserve

[behappyalways]

Burgum Orders Nearly 20 Million Acres In Alaska Opened For Oil, Gas Development
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/burgum ... evelopment

[behappyalways]

Trump: Any Country Buying Venezuelan Oil Slapped With 25% Tariff
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/trump- ... -25-tariff

[behappyalways]

Eight OPEC+ producers accelerate crude oil output hikes, pushing oil prices 6% lower
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/03/eight-o ... cent-.html

[winston]

World oil demand, US supply to grow more slowly on tariff tensions, IEA says

Global oil demand will grow at its slowest rate for five years in 2025 and United States’ production rises will also taper off, due to US President Donald Trump’s tariffs on trading partners and their retaliatory moves, the International Energy Agency said.

Trump's tariffs, along with a supply hike by OPEC+ producers, have driven a steep slide in oil prices this month, cutting revenue for producers.

World oil demand this year will rise by 730,000 barrels per day, a sharp cut from 1.03 million bpd expected last month.

The reduction is larger than a cut made on Monday by producer group OPEC.

"Roughly half of this downgrade occurs in the United States and China, with most of the remainder in trade-oriented Asian economies."

Growth of 730,000 bpd would be the lowest since 2020, when demand contracted due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Excluding the pandemic, it would be the lowest since 2019, when growth was 540,000 bpd.

In its first look at 2026, the IEA predicted a further slowdown in demand growth to 690,000 bpd, due to a fragile economic backdrop and growing penetration of electric vehicles.

Global oil prices have dropped by 13 percent this month to around $64 a barrel, pressured by trade tensions and the decision of OPEC+ producers to accelerate a supply hike in May.

"The significant drop in oil prices rattled the US shale patch," the IEA said. "New tariffs may also make it more expensive to buy steel and equipment, further discouraging drilling."

Together with the impact of Chinese tariffs on imports of U.S. ethane and liquefied petroleum gas, these factors prompted the IEA to cut its US oil supply forecast by 150,000 bpd this year to growth of 490,000 bpd.

Nonetheless, conventional oil projects remain on track, the IEA said, and it sees total supply from outside OPEC+ rising by 1.3 million bpd in 2025, comfortably above the rate of demand growth and suggesting a sizeable surplus.

The IEA's reduction in its 2025 oil demand forecast follows a similar move by OPEC on Monday, although the Paris-based IEA's reduction is more drastic.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries lowered its forecasts for oil demand this year and next to 1.30 million bpd and 1.28 million bpd respectively. These were both down 150,000 bpd from last month's figures.

Source: REUTERS

https://www.thestandard.com.hk/breaking ... ,-IEA-says

[winston]

It’s Time to Buy Oil

by Jeff Clark

Early last week, the OVX closed above its upper Bollinger Band. It closed back inside the bands on Thursday. So, we have a new buy signal for oil.

And based on the previous success of this indicator, traders should be looking for higher oil prices in the days and weeks ahead.

Source: Jeff Clark Trader

https://tradesoftheday.com/2025/04/16/i ... o-buy-oil/

[behappyalways]

Oil Prices Drop As Kazakh Chaos Threatens OPEC Alliance
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/oil-pr ... c-alliance

[winston]

Oil’s rarest ‘smile’ fascinates Morgan Stanley as glut looms

By Nicholas Lua & Yongchang Chin

Futures pricing that points to near-term tightness while also flagging a “meaningful surplus” further out.

Crude has been rocked this month by the fall-out from the US-led trade war, moves by Opec+ to boost supply at a faster-than-expected clip and growing expectations for a surplus.

Source: Bloomberg

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/753409