Uranium (Nuclear Energy)

[winston]

Why This High-Profile Investor Is Piling Into Uranium

By Eric Fry

First of all, out of about 420 reactors currently operating in the world, about 100 of them are in the U.S. So the U.S. today is the biggest nuclear market and biggest market for uranium in the world. It’s a great market to be in. But can you believe that as big of a market as the U.S. is, 95% of its uranium requirements are being imported?

Source: The Oxford Club

http://energyandresourcesdigest.com/inv ... ?src=email

[winston]

Four Factors That Could Boost Uranium Prices

by Eric Fry

First of all, in the uranium market you have long-term contracts that were signed five or six or seven years ago. Those contracts would have been at a higher uranium price than today’s. Those contracts are now rolling off.

Second, because the long-term supply contracts are rolling off, many utilities will be entering the uranium market to reload on new contracts to cover the requirements out over the next five years. Over the next five to 10 years, the amount of “uncovered” reactor requirements is near a 10-year high. Almost 1 billion pounds of uranium has to be purchased for long-term contracts.

The U.S. is importing 95% of its uranium requirements.

Japan was a very large nuclear nation six years ago. But after the Fukushima accident, it shut down all its nuclear reactors. Only two reactors are back online right now. But more reactors will be coming online.

Source: The Oxford Club

http://energyandresourcesdigest.com/inv ... ?src=email

[winston]

Japanese Restarts

The Osaka high court has overturned an injunction preventing the operation of can size to Takahama reactors, and these reactors are now expected to restart in May and June of this year.

Further, last month, the Hiroshima District Court dismissed an application for a temporary injunction seeking to shutdown Shikoku's Ikata reactor.

And recently, Kyushu Electric received approval at the local level to restart its Genkai 3 and 4 reactors; these developments bring more clarity to the restart process and hopefully creates a momentum for additional restarts in Japan.

Source: Seekking Alpha

[winston]

The problems with nuclear plants are many

by David Fessler

They take a decade to permit and at least a decade to build. Cost overruns affect more than 97% of nuclear projects. On average, these projects cost a staggering 117% more than expected.

Westinghouse is $9.8 billion in debt. The company is dwindling.

If you look elsewhere, the story is much the same...

General Electric (NYSE: GE) makes nuclear reactors. But it's not actively pursuing new business.

France's nuclear reactor in Normandy was supposed to cost $3.3 billion and to come online in 2012. Now, it won't produce power until 2018 at the earliest... and it will cost at least $11.3 billion.

The only hope for nuclear may lie in China. The Chinese are choking on pollution from coal-fired plants and want to replace them with nuclear plants. Twenty-one nuclear plants are under construction, with more waiting in the wings to start.

But even they are running into problems. The Chinese want to give the green light to eight reactors in 2017. Wonder who's working on those...

You guessed it: Westinghouse.

Nuclear power, while free of greenhouse gas emissions, has a unique set of problems... Not to mention the challenges of storing or disposing spent reactor fuel for 20,000 years or so.

If anything, it's yet another reason we should strive for 100% renewable energy sources for electricity and transportation.

And here's the best part: We have the technology to do this now. The only barriers are political and social ones.

Moving to renewables will create tens of thousands of new jobs. It will also go a long way toward stabilizing energy prices.

The good news is that thousands of companies are already supporting the march toward 100% renewable energy... it's Fessler's First Law of Technology in action: Technology marches on.

We'll get there without nuclear... and a lot faster than anyone thinks we will.

As Fessler's Second Law of Technology states, "When it comes to technology, change happens much faster than anyone expects."

Source: The Oxford Club

[winston]

Radiation, risk and robots: Ripping out a reactor's heart

About 200 nuclear reactors around the world will be shut down over the next quarter century, mostly in Europe

Dismantling a nuclear power plant can take decades and cost up to 1 billion euros ($1.1 billion), depending on its size and age.

http://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/rn ... index.html

Source: Reuters

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-nucle ... News%20Now

[winston]

France to ban all new oil and gas exploration in renewable energy drive

'Ecological transition' minister says law will be passed later this year

Around 75 per cent of France’s electricity is currently provided by nuclear power stations, with the industry employing around 200,000 people and led by state-owned EDF.

A law was passed last year to [b]reduce the nuclear proportion to 50 per cent by 2025, [/b]sparking controversy over potential job losses and the closure of up to 20 reactors.

Mr Macron reinstated his commitment to the law last month but has evaded concrete targets for the ultimate aim of making France run completely on renewable energy.

Source: Independent

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world ... 06161.html

[winston]

vested in Cameco (CCJ)

Uranium: Why It Can Rally Back to $70

By Robert Guy

Uranium prices may be trading around $20.50 a pound, the highest level in a month, but there is little to celebrate given the nuclear fuel is trading at a fraction of the $150 a pound it fetched in 2007.

But RBC Capital Markets has given some hope for uranium bulls that better days are ahead in its third quarter mining and metals outlook.

While the short term looks tough, production deficits could boost prices over coming years:

We forecast uranium prices will increase significantly through our forecast period due to cost curve economics, declining contract coverage, and required incentive price for new mine supply.

Near-term, we think prices are relatively range-bound near $20-25/lb U3O8 in 2017- 2018. As cost curve economics take effect and contract coverage declines in 2019-2021, we forecast an increase to $30-40/lb.

Post-2021, we believe the market should move towards a deficit and new mine supply may be required, resulting in uranium prices at $50/lb in 2022, $60/lb in 2023-2025 and $70/lb in 2026-2028. Longer-term, we forecast $65/lb based on the marginal cost of production.

The past decade has been a struggle for uranium producers as the disaster at Fukushima took Japanese reactors offline and dulled the appeal of nuclear energy. However, China is committed to developing more nuclear energy to combat pollution.

Source: Barron's Asia

http://www.barrons.com/articles/uranium ... 1498728222

[winston]

Get ready for the next ‘rip your face off’ rally in this commodity

by Justin Spittler

Right now, over 60 nuclear reactors are under construction around the world. Most of those will be up and running within the next three years.

Another 160 reactors are in the planning stage, and over 300 additional reactors have been proposed.

These new reactors are going to burn a lot of uranium. In fact, research firm Morningstar expects global uranium demand to rise 40% by 2025.

Source: Casey Daily Dispatch

http://thecrux.com/get-ready-for-the-ne ... off-rally/

[winston]

Uranium (U3O8 UXC) - Flat. US$20.50 (Aug07) from US$20.15 (Jul31) from US$20.50 (Jul24)

Vested Cameco (CCJ)

a. Breakeven: US$40 per lb
b. Range: $20 (2005) to $136 (2008); 580% rise in two years
c. Global production: 158m lbs pa; 15% of Supply from decommisioned weapons
d. Global Demand: 160m lbs pa to 225m lbs pa (2025)
e. Stockpile: 1b lbs (till 2022?) ; Companies normally store 5 years supply
f. Japanese Demand: 13 lbs pa; Starting 21/54 reactors? Currently, only 5 online
g. Number of Nuclear plants: +8 pa for next 20 yrs, 440 to 595; Current 456
h. 61 new reactors under construction; 149 planned; How many would be built ?
i. China: 35 existing plants; Building 21; 2017: 7 Ready: To build 177 more?
j. India: 22 existing nuclear plants; Currently building 5; To build 64 more?
k. 25% long-term supply contracts expiring in 2017-18; 75% between 2017-2025;
l. Russia withdrew from Nuclear deal in Oct 2016
m. Paris Climate Deal - how will it affect Nuclear Energy?
n. Some buyers are locking in long term contracts at US$40, twice spot rates
o. Kazakhtan reducing supply by 10% (40% of global production)
p. Competition: Natural Gas, Solar, Wind, Wave etc
q. Nuclear: 20% of the electricity generated in the U.S
r. Supply: 50k tonnes; Demand: 68k tonnes; 2k tonnes enriched for weapons
s. 1b pounds has to be purchased for long-term contracts over next 5-10 years
t. Average reactor needs 600,000 to 700,000 pounds to run for a year
u. US: 100/420 reactors; Importing 95% of its uranium requirements
v. 200 European nuclear reactors will be shut down over the next 25 years
w. French law: To reduce the nuclear proportion to 50 per cent from 75% by 2025 and closure of 20 reactors
x. New technology to mine Uranium from sea water? Cost and How Soon?
y. Glut at 15m pounds

[winston]

Fukushima operator can restart nuclear reactors at world's biggest plant

Tepco, still struggling to decommission Fukushima Daiichi, gets initial approval to start two reactors at Kashiwazaki-Kariwa

Japan’s nuclear regulator on Wednesday approved an application from Tokyo Electric Power (Tepco) to restart two reactors at Kashiwazaki-Kariwa – the world’s biggest nuclear power plant – even as the utility struggles to decommission Fukushima Daiichi.

The process will involve reviews and consultations with the public, and the restart is also expected to encounter strong opposition from people living near the plant on the Japan Sea coast of Niigata prefecture.

The governor of Niigata, Ryuichi Yoneyama, has said he will not decide on whether to agree to the restarts until Tepco completes its review of the Fukushima accident – a process that is expected to take at least another three years.

Tepco has been seeking permission to restart the idled reactors to help it reduce spending on fossil fuel imports, which have soared since the disaster, triggered by a huge earthquake and tsunami, forced the closure of all of Japan’s nuclear reactors. Four have since gone back online after passing safety inspections.

The total cost of the Fukushima cleanup – which is expected to take up to 40 years – could soar to between 50-70tn yen (£330bn-£470bn). Earlier estimates put the cost at about 22tn yen.

The government wants nuclear to provide about 20% of Japan’s energy by 2030.

Source: The Guardian

https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... aki-kariwa