Sugar, Stevia etc.

[winston]

Sugar has not experienced a rip roaring bull market in 31 years. That is about to change.

The vast overwhelming majority of traders have no clue what a for-real bull market in Sugar is like. I have lived (and traded successfully) through the big bull moves in Sugar — and I will tell you that there nothing like them.

A bull market in Sugar is the most explosive event in the commodity markets. Whereas traders today talk about the dream of catching a big Silver move, traders in the 1980s talked about the Sugar bull markets.

Sugar bull markets have a singular characteristic. When traders who want to buy a dip finally get a big enough dip to buy, they will not like what they get. There are two ways to get aboard a Sugar bull — at the market and on huge white-knuckle breaks.

Sugar bull markets are comprised of week after week of going up every day or huge breaks that run the stops of most speculators. If you get cute with a bull market in Sugar you will find yourself up to your neck in hardening syrup.

I believe we are in the early stages of the bull market to end all bull markets in Sugar. Let’s look at previous bull markets (as well as the current bull trend that started in 2007) for guidance.

First, let me make a point to you young guns who dismiss the signficance of market behavior from your grandfather’s generation. Those that understand market behavior best are part hisotorians, part psychologists and part economists.

History has much to tell us about the future in all aspects of life. Dismiss history at your own peril.

http://peterlbrandt.com/bull-market-in- ... thing-yet/

[winston]

not vested

The world's sugar market is likely to continue in surplus until at least 2013/14, leading agricultural commodities firm Wilmar International said on Thursday, signalling a likely collapse in prices.

Source: Reuters

[winston]

Sugar Traders Extend Longest Bear Streak Since 2007 on Glut: Commodities

Sugar traders are bearish for a seventh consecutive week, the longest stretch since at least 2007, on prospects for the first supply glut in four years.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-04-1 ... ities.html

[winston]

India Said to Consider Additional Sugar Exports Next Week By Pratik Parija and Prabhudatta Mishra

India, the world’s second-biggest sugar producer, will consider allowing mills to export an additional 1 million metric tons next week to ease a surplus, according to an official with direct knowledge of the matter.

Fresh exports are being considered because of a domestic surplus and to allow mills to raise enough cash to pay cane growers, said the official, who declined to be identified before an official announcement.

Fresh Indian supplies may deepen the first global supply glut in four years, deepening a 37 percent decline in futures in New York since reaching a three-decade high in February last year. World supplies are set to exceed usage by 7.7 million tons in 2011-2012, Czarnikow Group Ltd. said March 5.

Production in India climbed 13 percent to 24.6 million tons in the Oct. 1-April 15 period, the Indian Sugar Mills Association said yesterday.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-04-1 ... -week.html

[winston]

Sugar Shipments From Australia Increasing by 13% to Enlarge World Surplus

Sugar shipments from Australia, the third-biggest exporter, may climb to the highest in three years as better yields boost production, swelling global supplies.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-06-1 ... ly-2-.html

[winston]

This Canary in a Coal Mine Could Hurt Your Wallet By Jeff Clark
Tuesday, July 3, 2012

Rising prices aren't a problem… at least, according to the government folks who keep track of such things.

The Consumer Price Index is muddling along at a turtle-like pace below 2% per year. So inflation isn't a problem. "We have it all under control," Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and his followers proclaim.

But yesterday, I paid $4.99 for a small box of Lucky Charms cereal…

I do most of the grocery shopping for my family. So I'm keenly aware of the trend in food prices. And I can't ever recall dropping $5 for an 11.5-ounce box of my kids' favorite breakfast cereal.

It shouldn't be much of a surprise, really. Commodity prices have been rocketing higher over the past month. Soybean prices jumped 5% in June. Wheat and corn were up 20% and 22%, respectively.

Those are pretty significant price hikes… But they're not out of line with historical trends. Food commodity prices are volatile, and 10%-20% moves are common.

So it would be easy to dismiss the magically delicious price-gouging of a box of Lucky Charms if it wasn't for one thing… the rising price of sugar.

Sugar is the canary in the commodity sector coal mine. It's a purer measure of price inflation or deflation. Sugar crops aren't as vulnerable to weather disruptions such as droughts or floods. So the supply versus demand equation is more stable than that of most other food commodities.

We can dismiss the short-term price volatility of stuff like wheat and corn. But we ought to pay attention to the price of sugar. It'll provide an early warning sign for food price inflation. And based on the following chart, things don't look good…

Sugar broke out to the upside of a bullish falling-wedge pattern (the blue lines) in early June. But after a 20% pop higher last month, sugar looks poised to break to the upside of an ascending-triangle pattern (the red lines).

This is a bullish combination of patterns that often occurs at the end of long-term downtrends. A move above $0.215 would be a clean break out, and it would signal the start of a new uptrend for the price of sugar.

As sugar moves higher, you can count on most other commodities to do the same. That's going to hurt your wallet at the grocery store… And it's going to hurt the profit margins of restaurants and food-service companies that don't pass the price increases onto consumers.

There aren't many pure plays to trade the sugar trend. You could buy an exchange-traded product – like SGG or CANE – but they trade off futures contracts, which present a whole new list of risks.

More aggressive traders might also consider shorting restaurant stocks as rising food costs will eat into their bottom lines.

Source: www.growthstockwire.com

[winston]

not vested

Sugar Stockpile in India at Four-Year High Seen Helping Exports

The biggest sugar stockpile in India in four years is set to help the world’s top consumer avert a ban on exports, as a drought threatens to cut output and stokes a rally in domestic prices.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-08-0 ... ports.html

[winston]

Sugar, Spared by Drought, May Get Cheaper Unlike 'Breakfast Club' By: Sri Jegarajah

Sugar prices may soften over the course of this year, breaking ranks with the rest of the commodity market's "Breakfast Club" of corn, wheat, soybeans and cocoa, which surged to multi-month and all-time highs as dry weather ravaged crops.

Standard Chartered cut quarterly price forecasts for benchmark sugar prices on Wednesday after concerns receded over supply from Brazil, but warned upside risks remained for 2013.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/49097581

[winston]

not vested

Sugar to Extend Bearish Run in Third Year of Glut: ISO By Supunnabul Suwannakij QUEUE

Sugar, the fourth-worst performing commodity this year, will be under “bearish pressure” as global production exceeds demand for a third year in 2012-2013, according to the International Sugar Organization.


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-09-2 ... -says.html

[winston]

Sugar Glut Extending to Longest in More Than Decade: Commodities

The global sugar glut is extending into a third year, the longest stretch in more than a decade, as Brazil and Australia expand output and imports contract to the smallest since 2008.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-1 ... ities.html