Copper 02 (Nov 12 - Dec 25)

[winston]

And this article came out after a sharp drop...

An Early Warning Sign for a Pullback in Stock Prices By Jeff Clark

Copper dropped 5% last week.

The metal has long been viewed as a leading indicator of stock prices. Investors should pay attention, because when copper catches a cold, the stock market gets the flu. And last week, copper sneezed…

Take a look…

Copper broke down through its short-term rising support line (the red line). It also crashed through intermediate-term support (the bottom blue line). That's one heck of an ugly move.

But even more significant is that copper has now broken down from its consolidating-triangle pattern (both blue lines), which suggests that the metal is headed even lower – perhaps all the way back down to last summer's low.

We turned bullish on copper last June. Since then – and until last week – copper was up 14%. That helped support the rally in the broad stock market. But last week's decline wiped out almost half those gains. Copper is now trading back down to where it was in mid-December… and it looks likely to move even lower.

The most disappointing part of this development is that up until last week, copper was trading in a very bullish formation. The chart showed a pattern of higher highs and higher lows. It looked poised to break to the upside of the consolidating-triangle pattern.

This bullish look to copper was one of the reasons that – despite all the technical caution signs flashing in the market – I wasn't willing to turn aggressively bearish on stocks.

That reason doesn't exist anymore.

The sharp drop in copper last May coincided with an 8% pullback in the S&P 500. Stocks fell 8% in October as copper got hit hard, too.

I suspect last week's sharp decline in copper is an early warning sign for a similar pullback in stock prices… And it's why I'm willing to take a few short trades on any stock market strength this week.

Source: www.growthstockwire.com

[winston]

What Does Dr. Copper Think? by JC Parets

With the recent sell-offs in US Markets, let’s keep in mind that some other areas of the world have been doing just that for over a month now.

It started with Europe and some of the emerging markets the day after the Super Bowl. And since then, some of the economically sensitive commodities have joined in. Most importantly, in my opinion, is what we’re seeing from Copper – one of my favorite tells out there.

Here is a weekly chart of Copper Futures. The highs in the chart came back in February of 2011, just a couple of months before US Stocks peaked and lost over 20% over the next two quarters. Copper continued its decline along with Stocks and they both bottomed out together that October.

Since then, US Stocks have gone on to hit higher highs, and even all-time highs in some cases like the Small-caps, Mid-caps and Dow Transports. Copper, on the other hand, has not.

In fact, as you can see in this weekly bar chart, the base metal has actually been stuck within this smaller symmetrical triangle that developed towards the bottom end of a much larger consolidation.

I think Copper is a good tell here. We’ve been seeing some weakness unfold, no question, but this one could either foreshadow a more precipitous decline in risk assets, or hang on to that key multi-year trendline support and offer more of a “stay long” signal.

The bad news here is that Copper is currently attempting to hold on to this uptrend line from the June 2010 lows for what is now the 6th time. Unfortunately, the more times that a level is tested, the higher the likelihood that it breaks.

So let’s not forget about this one – Dr. Copper knows.

http://allstarcharts.com/what-does-dr-copper-think/

[winston]

Copper breaking critical support by PeterLBrandt

A strong down day today could place a top on the Copper market

The Copper market is in technical trouble. The market has been coiling within a symmetrical triangle pattern since October 2011, as seen on the weekly graph below.


http://peterlbrandt.com/copper-breaking ... l-support/

[winston]

A Bad Breakdown for Copper By Jeff Clark

Copper and the S&P 500 usually run together.

But they've been going in different directions since February.

And this week, copper has broken down badly…

Take a look at this one-year chart of copper…

The next level of support for the metal comes in around $3.30. But it could get even worse than that. The breakdown on the longer-term chart below looks even more ominous…

Copper has broken down from a long-term consolidating-triangle pattern. The measured move out of this type of pattern usually equals the height at the beginning of the triangle. Since the bottom of the triangle is at $3.10 and the top is near $3.90, the height of the triangle is $0.80.

Copper broke down from the pattern at about the $3.60 level. So subtracting $0.80 from the breakdown point gives us a measured target of $2.80. That approximately lines up with the low from the summer of 2010.

Copper has initial support at $3.30 and then again at $3.10. The metal could bounce briefly off both of those levels. But over time, copper should decline toward the $2.80 level.

We looked at the relationship between copper and the stock market last August. Stocks were moving higher and copper was lagging behind.

At the time, I suggested one of the charts was lying… Either copper had to start rallying to catch up with the gains in the stock market, or stocks had to start falling to come back in line with the action in copper. Back then, copper played "catch up" and the stock market rally continued.

Today, we have a similar situation. Only this time, the chart of copper looks more "bad" than the chart of the S&P 500 looks "good."


Source: Growth Stock Wire

[winston]

The warning siren from copper keeps getting louder.

Copper broke below an important support line in mid-February. It then broke through secondary support in mid-March.

Copper rallied back and tested the former support line (now resistance) last week. It failed that test, and the metal started dropping again last Friday. Take a look…

Copper is a leading indicator for stock prices. The S&P 500 has managed to rally to new all-time highs, despite the drop in copper. But this sort of divergence usually doesn't last long.

At some point, copper either needs to start rallying and catch up with the move in the stock market… or the stock market needs to fall in line with the move in copper.


Source: www.growthstockwire.com

[winston]

COPPER BREAKS OUT… TO THE DOWNSIDE by Brian Hunt

Last month, copper resolved its "compressed" condition… to the downside.

In February, we noted how the key building ingredient had moved into a "compressed" condition. This is a situation where an asset's day-to-day volatility gradually dries up and the highs and lows move closer together.

While we don't place much stock in conventional chart-reading at DailyWealth, we've seen compressed situations lead to explosive moves too many times not to watch them closely. We liken a compressed situation to a tightly coiled spring.

We expected copper to resolve its compressed condition by moving higher. Instead, the metal has suffered a sharp short-term correction.

By itself, this decline isn't a big red flag. It's a potentially worrisome development. But remember: copper is a key building ingredient. If it really plummets, it's a sign the global economy is faltering. Updates on this situation will follow.

Source: www.growthstockwire.com

[winston]

How to Double Your Money by Investing in Copper

Copper prices are up 170% over the past four years - meaning huge profits for anyone who has been investing in copper.

But now many investors are bailing on the red metal. Prices have slipped about 9% this year, and inventories are soaring.

http://moneymorning.com/2013/04/03/how- ... in-copper/

[winston]

Copper prices are sitting at eight-month lows.

[winston]

CFTC COT data in Copper are extremely bullish by PeterLBrandt

While the daily chart triangle in Copper is quite negative …

The CFTC COT data are at levels that historically accompany huge price advances

http://peterlbrandt.com/cftc-cot-data-i ... y-bullish/

[winston]

I have visited this mine before and it's huge ...

How a Massive Landslide Shifts Copper Supply By Frank Holmes

The U.S. mining industry was dealt a devastating blow as Kennecott Utah Copper's Bingham Canyon Mine experienced a pit wall failure causing a massive landslide with rocks and dirt covering the bottom of the mine pit.

It's a miracle no one was hurt due to the vigilance of its owner, Rio Tinto.


http://moneymorning.com/2013/04/17/how- ... er-supply/