Sugar, Stevia etc.

[b0rderc0llie]

Hehe, my entry price for the short was 23.29. Now its 23.50. Jim Rogers is going long on the sugar...

Anyway, I won't be trading my 1st contract. The plan is to hold it till the sugar market is back to "normal".

Am hoping for sugar to rise quite a bit higher, so that I can short another one and try to trade that contract.

Since your margin is less, would you be interested to play?

[kennynah]

i would be keen.... but i need to acquire more info and be more educated about sugar before i trade it...

for now, all i know are the margin requirements, the trading period (our 3am to 3pm every weekday) and that it is in my kopi-o, its chemical name is sucrose, with a molecular formula of C12H22O11... i've not accustomed myself with the daily gyration (volatility) pattern....

damn scary man...if sugar trades limit ups and downs..and i dont even know what that quantum is??? i believe in knowing what make of car runs over me...die also eyes close....wahahahaha...

but i am keen..and will monitor more first...

and if you wish, i appreciate any info that you might volunteer here....cheers man....

[b0rderc0llie]

My idea of sugar is that it is a commodity which is in demand now, and that the supplies are not able to meet the demands. I am betting that sugar prices will go higher and higher, which will result in supply > demand, which will eventually cause sugar prices to drop. A trend follower will buy at the high prices now, and sell at a higher price. When the trend turns, he is able to cut loss, and jump on the short side. I am not a trend follower, so I enter a short position now, hold it through the increase in prices (with further ammunition to short at a higher price), and wait for the eventual downtrend (if it happens).

I got interested in oil when business times reported that oil has reached a historic high of 100. When business times reported a 28 year high for sugar, it caught my interest as well. I can't find that article now, but the following one is similar.

---

Sugar price reaches 28-year high
The price of raw sugar has increased to its highest level since 1981, as supply concerns grow.

Raw sugar futures added 3% on Monday, to finish the day at 22 cents a pound.

"The main problem is a deficit in sugar supplies," said Nick Penney, a trader with Sucden Financial, a firm that focuses on sugar trading.

Growing demand in Brazil for sugar to be turned into ethanol, coupled with a sharp fall in Indian production, have both prompted worries, he explained.

Sugar production in India for 2008-09 fell 45% year-on-year, according to a report by Sucden.

And a "drastic fall" is expected for the coming Indian crop, it said.

India had less rain in the monsoon season and it was also uneven, damaging a number of agricultural crops.

There are concerns that the pending sugar crop, which will be ready around November, will be inadequate.

"This [sugar market] train is running express," said Alex Oliveira, senior sugar analyst for Newedge USA in New York.

"It's feeding on itself."

Story from BBC NEWS:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/b ... 193390.stm

Published: 2009/08/10 19:42:39 GMT

[b0rderc0llie]

Haha, just observed that millionairemind posted the same article when he created this thread

[kennynah]

i tellya...when our common kopitiams, start increasing kopi-o price by another 10cents, citing increased sugar prices... that's when i know the turning has arrived....

remember when our petrol kiosks hiked prices and assmrt raised fares in sep/oct 2008... that was very shortly after oil hit ~147pbl...and made a complete and stunning reversal thereafter...

now, the kpkb is not loud enough...

[winston]

With the rise in the standard of living in China, India and Indonesia, there would be a lot of new demand for sugar..

[kennynah]

and so would there also be greater demand for salt, pepper, vinegar, and other condiments...

[b0rderc0llie]

We could hedge the short on sugar with a long on another commodity or condiment hehe

[winston]

Ha Ha ... when I'm posting articles on Sugar, it must be the top already

BTW, I did force myself to research a Chinese Sugar company last night and I realize that it's beyond my core competence ..

=======================================================

Sugar May Reach 30 Cents a Pound, R.J. O’Brien’s Bauml Says By Shruti Date Singh

Aug. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Sugar futures may rise about 37 percent over the next six months to 30 cents a pound in New York because of tight global supplies, said Jeff Bauml, a senior vice president for R.J. O’Brien & Associates LLC.

The price already has surged 88 percent this year, reaching a 28-year high of 23.33 cents on Aug. 12. The rally was fueled by concern that a drought may curb output in India, the biggest consumer, and that too much rain is slowing the harvest and cutting yields in Brazil, the largest producer.

“In the near-term, we are close to a top,” Bauml said in an Aug. 21 telephone interview from New York. “It’s going to be a gradual rise prior to the March 2010 expiration, when we will have reached 30 cents.” The last day of trading in the March contract is Feb. 26.

Raw-sugar futures for October delivery fell 0.13 cent, or 0.6 percent, to 21.84 cents a pound Aug. 21 on ICE Futures U.S. in New York.

By the fourth quarter, traders will have more evidence to measure the impact of a weak Indian monsoon, which runs from June to September, on the development of the sugar-cane crop and how the end of Brazil’s harvest is faring, Bauml said.

India’s sugar output may reach 16 million to 18 million tons in the 2009-2010 marketing year, below demand of 20 million, according to the Indian Sugar Mills Association.

“If the new crop is at the trade’s expectation of 16 million to 16.5 million tons, that’s potentially bullish,” Bauml said.

Rain has returned to Brazil’s Center South region, which makes up more than 80 percent of the country’s sweetener production, after clear skies improved harvesting conditions during the first two months of August.

In the current April-to-November harvesting season, yields will drop to the lowest in at least 10 years as above-average rainfall in recent months reduced the amount of sucrose in plants, said Antonio Padua, a technical director at Unica, the regional industry association.

[winston]

TOL:-

Who would be hurt by higher Sugar prices ?

Soft Drink Manufacturers? Juice Manufacturers? Wang Wang? F&N? 3 in 1 Coffee ? Sweet Manufacturers ? China Lifestyle ( Jelly Manufacturer ) ?