Aluminum

[winston]

Aluminium extends losses on fears recession would hit demand

A renewed lockdowns in top consumer China and a potential global recession could slash demand for metals.

"Inventory levels held by exchanges in London and Shanghai are still on the weak side so how do you square that with prices coming down in anticipation of lower demand? That's the conundrum the market has to deal with."

Source: Reuters

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/bus ... hit-demand

[winston]

Russian supply uncertainty weighs on aluminium market

by Andy Home

Russian supply shows every sign of increasing as Rusal ramps up a new smelter and looks to export more metal as domestic demand weakens.

Australia, in March, banned the export of bauxite and intermediate product alumina to Russia. Another key alumina supply channel was shut off by the closure, also in March, of the Nikolaev refinery in Ukraine.

The alumina gap, is being filled by Chinese producers, which have dramatically stepped up exports to Russia.

Novelis, a division of Hindalco Industries, and Norsk Hydro's extrusions unit have already said they will not enter into new Russian purchase contracts for 2023.

The aluminium market is starting to worry about the prospect of large volumes of unsold Russian metal being dumped into LME warehouses.

Source: Reuters

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/ ... ium-market

[behappyalways]

Aluminum Surges Most On Record As LME Considers Russia Ban
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/alumi ... russia-ban

[winston]

Sizable Supply Deficit

by Eric Fry

According to Bank of America, a sizable supply deficit will develop in the aluminum market over the next couple of years.

The researchers at the bank predict a 1.53 million tonne deficit this year, rising to 1.93 million tonnes next year.

For perspective, global consumption will total about 70.8 million tonnes this year.

As that demand level soars toward 108 million tonnes over the next four year, even larger deficits could develop.

If these forecasts are close to the mark, aluminum prices should trend higher.

Source: Smart Money

[winston]

Recovery demand and tight inventory will support LME aluminum prices

London Metal Exchange's (LME) aluminium prices rebounded from this year’s low of US$2,159 on Jan 22 to its one-year high of US$2,421 on Thursday, posting a gain of 12.51% within the period.

Recovery demand and tight inventory will support LME aluminum prices, with demand for aluminum in China driven by solar power and new energy vehicle industries.

On the supply side, the research house said LME’s aluminium stockpile remains relatively low at 549,000 tonnes towards end-2023, while China’s aluminium stockpile was around 434,000 tonnes, with no major import arrival and aluminium output impacted negatively after Yunnan’s production was cut in the fourth quarter last year.

“Additionally, the ban on Russia's metal could lend further strength to the LME aluminium prices,” it added.

Source: The Edge

[behappyalways]

Where the world's aluminum is smelted, by country
https://x.com/Mayhem4Markets/status/1788525256853856750

[behappyalways]

Aluminum Jumps To 23-Month High Amid Ongoing Aussie Production Issues
https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/a ... na-warning

[winston]

Trafigura faces off with aluminium bulls over huge metal stash

By Jack Farchy, Mark Burton & Archie Hunter

The big bear in the market is Trafigura Group: the commodities trading giant has delivered massive volumes of aluminium onto the LME in recent weeks, while touting its downbeat view.

On the other side stand banks and hedge funds, including Squarepoint Capital LLP, Citigroup Inc and JPMorgan Chase & Co, which have responded by buying up Trafigura’s metal.

Inventories remain relatively low, while production in China is nearing a 45 million ton per year cap imposed by Beijing. Add in forecasts for demand growth of 3.1% this year — led by demand from China and India — and the market is set to tighten in the second half of this year.

Source: Bloomberg

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/712985

[behappyalways]

Aluminum Prices Hit Two-Year High On Smelter Output Limits In China
https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/a ... mits-china