Oil 11 (Nov 17 - Jan 21)

Re: Oil 11 (Nov 17 - Dec 20)

Postby winston » Sat Apr 04, 2020 8:28 am

Why global oil prices will fall below $10

Covid-19 pandemic and Saudi-Russian supply war have decimated oil prices 65% this year with little hope of a near-term revival

By TIM DAISS

The downward drivers for oil prices are excess production, demand destruction and a corresponding buildup of inventory levels.

Saudi Arabia, for its part, needs oil at a whopping $85 per barrel to balance the its national fiscal accounts, according to the International Monetary fund (IMF), while Russia needs prices in at least the mid $40s.

Russia may be able to endure this prolonged low price environment longer than Saudi Arabia, which could be forced to raise cash through international bond sales to say afloat.



Source: Asia Times

https://asiatimes.com/2020/03/why-globa ... dnFwIn0%3D
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Re: Oil 11 (Nov 17 - Dec 20)

Postby behappyalways » Sat Apr 04, 2020 9:24 pm

The Most Profitable Trade: ‘Oil All Over the Oceans Right Now’
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... emium-asia
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Re: Oil 11 (Nov 17 - Dec 20)

Postby behappyalways » Sun Apr 05, 2020 6:12 pm

How Saudi Arabia Can Save the Global Oil Industry
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/artic ... nd=opinion
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Re: Oil 11 (Nov 17 - Dec 20)

Postby winston » Mon Apr 06, 2020 8:28 am

Trump threatens oil tax to save US

US President Donald Trump ramped up threats to use tariffs, to protect the US energy industry from a historic glut of oil, as efforts to forge a global deal to cut output appeared to lose momentum.

Trump said on Saturday at a White House press briefing he'd use tariffs if needed to protect the domestic oil industry, even as he predicted that Saudi Arabia and Russia would come to an agreement to cut output and stem the rout in prices.

But such a deal looked a bit further from reach at the weekend, after a diplomatic row between Saudi Arabia and Russia. A gathering of Opec+ members and other producers scheduled today was pushed back to Thursday, to give more time for negotiations.

Saudi Arabia, which launched a price war last month with Russia after Opec+ talks broke down, has made clear that it won't cut production unless other producers - including the US - also hold back supply. But Trump said: "I don't care about Opec," a "cartel" he's opposed all his life.

The prospect of a deal to reduce the massive glut of oil caused by the coronavirus lockdown sent benchmark oil futures to a record gain last week. Oil prices have fallen about 50 percent this year as the pandemic has knocked out as much as a third of global oil demand. That means producers are going to have to reduce output eventually - with or without a deal - as storage both on land and at sea fills up.

In the latest maneuver in the price war, Saudi Arabia postponed yesterday its monthly price-setting event for exported oil to tomorrow or Thursday.

The move allows the company to have a better idea of how negotiations are going before setting the prices that are its key weapon in its war with Russia for market share.

Last month, it also postponed the event in the midst of wrangling at Opec+ and responded to the breakdown in those talks with a historic price cut.

Source: Bloomberg

https://www.thestandard.com.hk/section- ... to-save-US
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Re: Oil 11 (Nov 17 - Dec 20)

Postby behappyalways » Fri Apr 10, 2020 7:00 pm

Oil producers agree to cut production by a tenth
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-52226236
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Re: Oil 11 (Nov 17 - Dec 20)

Postby winston » Sun Apr 12, 2020 7:42 am

Could Crude Oil Prices Drop to $5 per Barrel?

by David Fessler

Two weeks ago, the U.S. had the second-largest buildup in crude oil inventories in its history, according to the Energy Information Administration.

We desperately need coordinated, global cuts in crude production. Otherwise, global storage will run out by late June.

The break-even oil price for many U.S. shale producers is between $48 and $54 per barrel.

Many U.S. shale producers are highly leveraged and saddled with mountains of debt. Their cash flows, already compromised, will nearly dry up if oil prices continue to drop.

Some are trying to solve the problem by increasing production. But ultimately, all will have to close off some wells in order to meaningfully reduce production.


Source: Profit Trends

https://profittrends.com/energy-investi ... _type=html
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Re: Oil 11 (Nov 17 - Dec 20)

Postby behappyalways » Sun Apr 12, 2020 6:17 pm

(When would the global economy recovers? The OPEC+ might gave you a clue....and then reduced to 6 million barrels for another 16 months, until April 2022.)

In fairness, the OPEC+ deal is grand in its scope, given the size of the cuts and their duration. The 20 producers taking part will initially cut output by 10 million barrels a day, or 23%, for two months — May and June. That will then be tapered to 8 million barrels a day until the end of the year, and then reduced to 6 million barrels for another 16 months, until April 2022.


The U.S.-Saudi-Russia Oil Cease-Fire Won’t Last
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/artic ... -last-long
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Re: Oil 11 (Nov 17 - Dec 20)

Postby behappyalways » Mon Apr 13, 2020 4:46 pm

Record deal to cut oil output ends price war
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-52264546
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Re: Oil 11 (Nov 17 - Dec 20)

Postby winston » Wed Apr 15, 2020 1:33 pm

Oil rises on bargain-hunting, hopes for stockpile purchases

By Yuka Obayashi

Crude inventories rose by 13.1 million barrels in the week ended on April 10 to 486.9 million barrels, more than analyst expectations for a build of 11.7 million barrels.

Hopes for massive purchasing by consuming countries for their strategic stockpiles also lent support.

Officials and sources from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its Russia-led allies - a grouping known as OPEC+ - have indicated that the International Energy Agency (IEA), energy watchdog for the world's most industrialised nations, may announce purchases of up to several million barrels to buoy the record OPEC+ output cut.

The U.S. Energy Department said on Tuesday it is negotiating with nine energy companies to store about 23 million barrels of domestic oil in its Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR).

Saudi Arabia's Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said on Monday that oil purchases into countries SPRs would reach 200 million barrels over the next couple of months, citing the IEA.


Source: Reuters

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-rall ... 39497.html
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Re: Oil 11 (Nov 17 - Dec 20)

Postby winston » Thu Apr 16, 2020 10:05 am

Why Oil Prices Continue to Decline

by DR. KENT MOORS

The spread between Brent and WTI, has widened to over 30%. That’s a level I have never seen in the past two decades and more.

This indicates a number of serious problems. Heading the list is the greater relative weakness of United States prices versus those declining on the international market.

That diminishes the prospects of American producers using exports to higher priced markets as a way of offsetting plummeting domestic prospects.


After providing a reduced cut for Mexico, those amounted to 9.7 million barrels a day beginning May 1 and extending until the end of July, about 8 million barrels through the end of the year, then moving to almost 6 million barrels a day from January 2021 until April 2022.

Saudi Aramco: breakeven at about $10 a barrel. Saudi Arabia’s national central budget was set with a price of $70.


Source: Oil & Energy Investor

https://oilandenergyinvestor.com/2020/0 ... /#deeplink
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