Oil 11 (Nov 17 - Jan 21)

Re: Oil 11 (Nov 17 - Dec 19)

Postby winston » Tue May 21, 2019 9:17 pm

The Overlooked Factor That Could Send Oil To $50

by Tim Daiss

The Saudis have to make a decision by next month whether or not to keep the second, and current OPEC+ production agreement to remove 1.2 million bpd of oil from markets in place or not.

U.S. sanctions against Iran and Venezuela, oil output problems in Libya and Canada, all come into play as does perhaps the biggest dynamic of all in global oil markets - the impact that the ongoing trade war between the U.S. and China will have.

The fiscal break-even point for Saudi Arabia is $75+ per barrel. The IMF said recently that the Kingdom needs oil at around at least $80-$85 per barrel to balance its books.

U.S. shale producers, for their part, would also cut production in an oil market with prices south of $50.

Most shale producers in the Permian basin now have a break-even cost between $46-$50, while some Permian producers can make money even if oil dropped as low as $32 per barrel.


Source: Oilprice.com

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/overlook ... 00580.html
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Re: Oil 11 (Nov 17 - Dec 19)

Postby winston » Wed May 22, 2019 11:20 am

Oil slides on rising U.S. crude stockpiles, Saudi vow to keep market balanced

By Aaron Sheldrick and Henning Gloystein

The American Petroleum Institute(API) said on Tuesday that U.S. crude stockpiles rose by 2.4 million barrels last week, to 480.2 million barrels, compared with analysts' expectations for a decrease of 599,000 barrels.

Because of the cuts, crude output by OPEC and its allies, fell by 2.3 million barrels per day (bpd) between November 2018 and April 2019.


Source: Reuters

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-fall ... nance.html
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Re: Oil 11 (Nov 17 - Dec 19)

Postby winston » Thu May 23, 2019 5:16 pm

The Silence Before The Storm In Oil Markets

Nick Cunningham

The front end of the curve has moved into steep backwardation – when near-term contracts trade at a premium to longer-dated futures.

Backwardation is typically associated with a tight oil market – essentially, traders are willing to pay a premium for oil today relative to deliveries six or twelve months out.


Source: Oilprice.com

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/silence- ... 00063.html
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Re: Oil 11 (Nov 17 - Dec 19)

Postby winston » Mon May 27, 2019 7:53 am

Oil: 62.92, +0.05

After a 2.5 week test at the 200 day SMA, bounced late week, but still off the recent highs just over 66.

Source: Investment House
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Re: Oil 11 (Nov 17 - Dec 19)

Postby winston » Mon May 27, 2019 2:47 pm

Is The Oil Glut Coming Back?

by Nick Cunningham

On Wednesday, the EIA reported a surprise jump in crude oil and gasoline inventories, while production also increased.

The main reason why the EIA data was so negative was because inventories rose in all categories except residual fuel oil, resulting in a combined increase of 16.33 million barrels.


Source: Oilprice.com

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-glut ... 00773.html
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Re: Oil 11 (Nov 17 - Dec 19)

Postby winston » Mon Jun 03, 2019 8:04 am

Oil: 53.50, -3.09

Second straight harsh drop as oil is in full retreat after giving up the 200 day SMA the prior week.

Some support near 52.50 and likely tries to hold there given the strength of the selling.

Source: Investment House
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Re: Oil 11 (Nov 17 - Dec 19)

Postby winston » Sun Jun 16, 2019 9:30 pm

Oil: 53.99, +2.31

After another week of selling, oil jumped higher Friday.

Still in the selloff.

Source: Investment House
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Re: Oil 11 (Nov 17 - Dec 19)

Postby behappyalways » Sun Sep 15, 2019 1:26 pm

Drone strikes knock out half of Saudi oil capacity, 5 million barrels a day
https://edition.cnn.com/2019/09/14/busi ... index.html
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Re: Oil 11 (Nov 17 - Dec 19)

Postby winston » Mon Sep 16, 2019 9:06 am

Oil & Gas: Geopolitical risk premium higher post drone attacks

Following drone attacks at Saudi Arabia’s production facilities on Saturday, Brent crude surged the most on record with benchmark oil futures rising as much as $11.73 /barrel to $71.95 as the market opened today in Asia.

As at time of writing, Brent has eased to $68.30, representing a 13.4% rise.

Saudi’s Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said the strikes had reduced crude oil production by 5.7m bbl/day, which is about half the kingdom’s output.

Part of the decline will be compensated through stocks, though the level remains uncertain, with JODI reporting global stocks owned by Saudi Arabia at an 11-year low of 188 mb and Kayrros showing Saudi and Egypt combined crude inventories at 101 mb.

It is also unclear how long the outage will last – initially the “majority” of production was expected to be back online by Mon, then Tue; latest is that it will take “weeks” to get back to full.

With the latest development, oil-related stocks are expected to see a positive knee jerk reaction, and we will unwind the earlier 9 Sep recommendation to take partial profits on CNOOC and PetroChina – the former is down 1.2% while the latter is up 2.4% since.

Higher beta and previously high short-interest stocks should lead the way higher on a trading basis – e.g. US midcap E&P and services, seismics/E&Ps in Europe, and SMM in Singapore.

Fundamentally, we would stick to our preference for the oil majors after the move fades.

For oil, with
1) less risk from Iran production returning
2) higher geopolitical risk premium and
3) Iraq taking steps to reduce exports, downside risks to prices have materially lessened.

Source: OCBC
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Re: Oil 11 (Nov 17 - Dec 19)

Postby winston » Mon Sep 16, 2019 9:42 pm

Top 4 Inverse Oil ETFs to Short Oil in 2018

1. ProShares UltraPro 3x Short Crude Oil ETF (OILD)
2. ProShares UltraShort (2x) Bloomberg Crude Oil (SCO)
3. DB Crude Oil Double Short ETN (DTO)
4. United States Short Oil Fund (DNO)


Source: Investopedia

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/e ... yptr=yahoo
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