Going abroad to exchange the yen should be quick.
The Bank of Japan’s loose policy may turn.
The yen’s rise ignites investment enthusiasm.
出國換日圓動作要快 日銀寬鬆政策恐轉向 日圓看升燃起投資熱 專家建議比重不宜高|非凡財經新聞|20230717
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=SQqKjr98cDg
Invesco Japanese yen ETF (FXY)
This is a sign that bearish momentum is getting exhausted. And when there are more buyers than sellers of the yen, the trend dynamic should shift, and we should see FXY break out of its channel.
Approximately $1.25 billion in yen options expire Monday at the 152 per dollar level, likely contributing to any sudden movements in the currency around the key level.
The bond giant started building a long yen position when Japan’s currency weakened past 140 per dollar a few months ago.
As we continue to see inflation in Japan rising and being steadily above their target, they will want to move in the direction of abandoning or changing their yield-curve control policies and eventually there might be a need for a hike.
Inflation in the US is coming down, and inflation in Japan is still elevated.
The yen has tumbled more than 12% against the dollar this year, disappointing many on Wall Street who have predicted it would rally as a hawkish Federal Reserve and dovish BOJ swapped places.
Maintained its ultra-loose monetary policy, as expected, and more surprisingly did not signal a change was approaching,
The message from the BOJ today is that they are still very cautious and there is no strong indication that they are getting close to raising rates.
Investors are excited by the prospect of a shift in Japan’s rate policy as soon as next week, but wary of the strength in the US economy and the likelihood that the yield gap between the two countries will remain wide.
The median prediction in a Bloomberg survey is for the currency to finish 2024 at 140 per dollar, just 5% stronger than the current level.
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