CNY (RMB) 02 (Feb 16 - Dec 24)

Re: CNY (RMB) 02 (Feb 16 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Tue Apr 04, 2017 3:54 am

Everybody is overlooking this developing trend in China’s yuan

‘If China’s policymakers play their cards right, there is a definite gap to fill if the dollar’s days are numbered'

The latest data shows the dollar’s share of global reserves rose to a record US$5.05 trillion, nearly 64 per cent of all official holdings.

The euro lags well behind to the tune of a 20 per cent market share.


China’s renminbi came out of the starter’s blocks in the fourth quarter of last year, with its share of allocated currency reserves totalling just over 1 per cent, or US$84.5 billion.


The US’s twin black holes – the budget deficit and trade gap – continue to pose dark shadows over the currency, requiring massive infusions of central bank and overseas money to keep the economy afloat.


Source: SCMP

http://www.scmp.com/business/global-eco ... hinas-yuan
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Re: CNY (RMB) 02 (Feb 16 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Wed Apr 12, 2017 8:05 am

Chart of the day: Dollar bulls are back

by Nicole Elliott

Earlier this year, the offshore yuan was trading at a premium to the domestic one.

The differential, though relatively small, has now disappeared and both are trading at 6.9065 to the US dollar; this is possibly linked to subdued volatility so far this year.

Interestingly, volume has picked up considerably since mid-March, hinting that the market is poised to trade through last month’s high at 6.92 because momentum has turned bullish again.

Worth noting too that the lagging line has been supported by the candles of 26 days ago since mid-January.

Therefore we feel that traders and investors should prepare for a retest of last year’s high point at 6.96. Above here on a first attempt is considered unlikely.

Source: SCMP

http://www.scmp.com/business/markets/ar ... s-are-back
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Currency - General News

Postby behappyalways » Sat Apr 15, 2017 1:09 pm

Donald Trump: China 'not a currency manipulator'
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-39583571
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Re: CNY (RMB) 02 (Feb 16 - Dec 17)

Postby behappyalways » Wed Apr 19, 2017 9:05 pm

China eases yuan outflow controls in sign of recovered confidence
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/18/china-ea ... dence.html
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Re: CNY (RMB) 02 (Feb 16 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Wed May 03, 2017 6:03 am

Chart of the day: Peak triangle

by Nicole Elliott

The exchange rate between the offshore yuan and the US dollar has been in consolidation mode throughout this year.

In fact, it has been mapping out a symmetrical triangle and we have now met its apex. This is unusual in that more often than not prices break out of this type of pattern when they get about two-thirds of the way through.

Interestingly, volume has remained high since January, again unusual considering the limited price moves and historical volatility is one standard deviation below the long-term mean.

Despite messy moving averages, trend line and Ichimoku cloud support ought to lift the market, taking us clear of the triangle’s top edge to retest the record high at 6.987.

Source: SCMP

http://www.scmp.com/business/markets/ar ... k-triangle
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Re: CNY (RMB) 02 (Feb 16 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Tue May 30, 2017 7:04 am

Revealed: the sneaky ways Chinese are moving money across the border

Foreign currency regulator SAFE sheds light on exodus of cash

Fake invoices, false trade records and invalid customs forms were among the most common ways for money to be moved illegally.


“I expect China will need to depreciate the currency in 2018 to reduce the pressure on capital flows.”


Here are some of the most popular ways to get money out:
1) Forging transport invoices and shipping contracts
2) Forging trade records
3) Re-using invoices
4) Faking transaction amounts for customs
5) Putting money in other people’s accounts and asking them to transfer money in instalments
6) Going through underground banks
7) Using invalid custom clearance forms
8) Creating false reasons to explain to banks the need for transfers


Source: SCMP

http://www.scmp.com/news/china/economy/ ... cash-trail
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Re: CNY (RMB) 02 (Feb 16 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Wed Jun 07, 2017 7:47 am

Chart of the day: Rally hopes for yuan

by Nicole Elliott

Good volume was seen over the past fortnight as the yuan broke trend-line support and strengthened against the US dollar suddenly.

International investors were somewhat rattled but we believe what we have seen is a proper correction of the move to yuan weakness that started early last year.

It takes the form of an A, B, C-type correction where C is exactly the same height as A and which came to a juddering halt at Fibonacci and 50 per cent retracement support.

With the yuan more oversold than it has been in four years yet bearish momentum not as strong as in January, we expect the move to stabilise over the coming week, then prices will rally towards this year’s high.

Source: SCMP

http://www.scmp.com/business/markets/ar ... hopes-yuan
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Re: CNY (RMB) 02 (Feb 16 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Fri Jun 16, 2017 11:15 am

Expect a shock devaluation in Chinese yuan after October

by Jim Rickards

The CCP leadership consisting of a General Secretary, Politburo Standing Committee, Politburo, and Central Committee.

The seven-member Politburo Standing Committee runs the CCP.

The General Secretary is the single most powerful person in the leadership. The conventional government is controlled by the CCP, which holds the real power.

In recent decades, the General Secretary serves two five-year terms, and is then succeeded by another member of the Standing Committee.

At the end of the first five-year term, the Standing Committee elevates one or two candidates who are most likely to succeed the General Secretary at the end of his second term.


Leading Chinese analyst Leland Miller, in his China Beige Book report, explains that actual credit conditions in China are not as tight as benchmark rates make them sem.


China’s reserve position of $4 trillion in 2014 has now shrunk to about $3 trillion.

Approximately $1 trillion of that is in illiquid investments, such as the CIC portfolio, or is committed to long-term lending via NDB, AIIB, and the One Belt, One Road initiative.

That leaves about $2 trillion in liquid reserves to do damage control.

About $1 trillion of that will be needed to clean-up the banking system as state-owned enterprises (SOE) and wealth management products’ (WMP) bad debts come home to roost. That leaves only $1 trillion to defend the exchange rate.

Based on the rate of capital outflows in 2016, a $1 trillion war chest will be exhausted in less than a year.


A drop of 20% against the dollar, to a level of 8.50 to one dollar, would be viewed as sustainable. That should halt capital outflows.

Once the yuan is devalued, interest rates could be lowered to stimulate growth and keep the jobs machine humming.

China will abandon one leg of the impossible trinity (a fixed exchange rate) in order to preserve the other two (open capital account, and independent interest rate policy).


Based on far smaller yuan devaluations in August 2015 and December 2015, the repercussions of a new devaluation will not be confined to China.

The U.S. stock market crashed over 10% on both prior occasions. An even larger correction could be expected when the maxi-devaluation comes. A flight to quality in gold is another predictable result.


Source: Currency Wars Alert

http://thecrux.com/jim-rickards-chinas-red-october/
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Re: CNY (RMB) 02 (Feb 16 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Tue Jun 20, 2017 2:47 pm

7 Reasons to be Bearish on the Chinese Yuan

By Isabella Zhong

Rabobank strategist Michael Every argues there are still many reasons to be bearish on the yuan.

1. Déjà vu

After all, we have been here before – a lot. We have seen five bouts of forward CNH depreciation, and this is the fourth time that such expectations have been sharply reversed by subsequent PBOC market intervention: yet each time, after a pause, they rapidly build again - and this rally is now long in the tooth. Will this time round prove any different? The fundamentals suggest it won’t.

2. Slowdown

3. Red-lights

In trying to deal with its major debt problems -and they are truly spectacular- in particular, by now cracking down on excesses in the shadow banking system, China is exposing its financial system to significant stress.

4. Debt

5. The PBOC

In fact, looking further out it becomes extremely hard to see how this balance-sheet expansion will not occur; and recall that everywhere else that this has happened, the logical response has been a sharp fall in the value of that country’s currency given the simple supply vs. demand impact.

6. The Fed

7. CFETS


Source: Barron's Asia

http://www.barrons.com/articles/7-reaso ... 1497940383
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Re: CNY (RMB) 02 (Feb 16 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Wed Aug 09, 2017 7:15 am

A major reversal in China’s currency

by Dr. Steve Sjuggerud

China’s currency has begun a new uptrend this year. This is a powerful shift. And it could help power Chinese stocks even higher in the coming years.


Source: True Wealth

http://thecrux.com/a-major-reversal-in-chinas-currency/
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