CNY (RMB) 02 (Feb 16 - Dec 24)

Re: CNY (RMB) 02 (Feb 16 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Fri Aug 18, 2017 8:26 am

Chart of the day: Complete correction

by Nicole Elliott

From a record high in the first week of January the US dollar has steadily lost ground against the offshore yuan ever since – despite US President Donald Trump’s promise to make America great again.

The move is mature, has retraced a Fibonacci 61 per cent of the previous rally, and maps out as a five wave move where the fifth wave is the same height as the first one.

Interestingly, waves two and four are similar in size, suggesting this has been an orderly, controlled move.

Last week the greenback became more oversold than it has been since January 2014, adding to our view that this lengthy move is close to an end so expect a climb back up to the 6.8900 area.

Source: SCMP

http://www.scmp.com/business/markets/ar ... correction
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Re: CNY (RMB) 02 (Feb 16 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Mon Sep 04, 2017 6:46 pm

Capital inflows to rise in China, top ING economist says

ING’s Greater China economist expects the government will ensure the yuan continues to rise until inflows surpass outflows persistently

The yuan appreciated 2.0 per cent in August, the biggest monthly gain since July 2005.


In China, regulators may provide window guidance by telling companies not to remit funds verbally and privately, even though there is no official public announcement.


Using revenue from the mainland to payback offshore loans when they become due in two years time, will exert depreciation pressure on the yuan.


The successful deleveraging of the coal and steel sectors, in particular, will be set as a role model for other smaller, provincial SOEs such as cement producers.


Source: SCMP

http://www.scmp.com/business/money/stoc ... omist-says
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Re: CNY (RMB) 02 (Feb 16 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Thu Sep 07, 2017 6:54 pm

Investor Who Lost Millions Finally Gives Up on His China Bet

By Saijel Kishan

Hedge fund manager Hart turns bullish on China and the yuan
The currency’s 2017 rally has defied bearish forecasters

Source: Bloomberg

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... gn=markets
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Re: CNY (RMB) 02 (Feb 16 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Wed Sep 13, 2017 7:57 am

Chart of the day: CNY out of control

by Nicole Elliott

The move to yuan strength against the US dollar that has dominated this year accelerated violently in the middle of August with record bearish momentum, so that the greenback became more oversold than it has been in four years.

Friday’s strong hammer against trend-line support taken from the low in January 2014 occurred at the 50 per cent retracement area of the controlled rally between then and December 2016.

We feel that this combination of technical factors marks the end to this year’s move and a rally should undo the excess of the past fortnight.

In fact, we would favour much to-ing and fro-ing at roughly between 6.45 and 6.60. Keep an eye out for other foreign exchange moves against the US dollar though.

Source: SCMP

http://www.scmp.com/business/markets/ar ... ut-control
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Re: CNY (RMB) 02 (Feb 16 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Wed Sep 13, 2017 2:45 pm

Two reasons why China’s currency doesn’t have more global clout

The government should promote the use of the yuan to make international financial payments and make it much easier to do it, says former central bank adviser

The first is that China has been promoting the use of the currency in trade and investment, but not in financial transactions.


The second is that China’s home-grown cross-border yuan payment system – the cross-border interbank payment system – is not compatible with other payment systems,


The yuan’s market share in global payments was 1.9 per cent in July, making it the fifth most active currency after the dollar, according to the global transaction service provider SWIFT. Three quarters of offshore yuan payments were made via Hong Kong.


The yuan has appreciated about six per cent against the dollar so far this year, reversing a depreciating trend started after Beijing’s devaluation of the currency in August 2015.


Source: SCMP

http://www.scmp.com/news/china/economy/ ... obal-clout
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Re: CNY (RMB) 02 (Feb 16 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Sun Sep 17, 2017 8:16 am

After nearly two years, China’s cash exodus could be coming to an end

Widely watched indicator from the central bank shows a smaller decline in yuan positions accumulated from foreign exchange purchases in August

The country’s foreign exchange reserves have gone up for seven consecutive months to August, when they were firmly above US$3 trillion.


A 22-month net loss of funds has greatly lowered domestic money supply. China’s M2 money supply growth decelerated to 8.9 per cent at the end of August, the lowest expansion recorded since the monthly data became available in 1996.

The growth rate was also far below the government’s target for 2017, which is 12 per cent.


Source: SCMP

http://www.scmp.com/news/china/economy/ ... coming-end
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Re: CNY (RMB) 02 (Feb 16 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Tue Sep 19, 2017 7:36 am

The dollar's slide is about way more than Trump, and everyone should take notice

by Myles Udland

The transition from dollar to yuan has begun


As of June, Russia accepts yuan — rather than dollars — as payment for oil sales to China. Russia now has 25% of China’s oil import market, up from 15% earlier this year.


“If oil trade moves to yuan, it will mean a potential loss of $800 billion per year in U.S. dollar transactions, and a similar reduction of $800 billion in re-cycling of petro-surpluses into U.S. dollar assets.


Source: Yahoo Finance

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/dollars- ... 16126.html
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Re: CNY (RMB) 02 (Feb 16 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Tue Sep 19, 2017 6:42 pm

Central bank official says China keen to promote use of yuan in commodity pricing

Beijing studying ‘market rules and mechanisms to meet demand from investors’ deputy head of monetary policy committee says

China is the world’s largest importer of crude oil, iron ore and other raw materials.

The more than one billion metric tonnes of iron ore it bought last year represented more than half of the global seaborne trade.


Source: SCMP

http://www.scmp.com/news/china/economy/ ... -commodity
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Re: CNY (RMB) 02 (Feb 16 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Tue Sep 19, 2017 6:42 pm

Central bank official says China keen to promote use of yuan in commodity pricing

Beijing studying ‘market rules and mechanisms to meet demand from investors’ deputy head of monetary policy committee says

China is the world’s largest importer of crude oil, iron ore and other raw materials.

The more than one billion metric tonnes of iron ore it bought last year represented more than half of the global seaborne trade.


Source: SCMP

http://www.scmp.com/news/china/economy/ ... -commodity
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Re: CNY (RMB) 02 (Feb 16 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Fri Sep 29, 2017 8:39 am

Chart of the day: Closing the yuan gap

Since mid-June, although offshore yuan has been at a tiny premium to its onshore partner, the difference is irrelevant. A spread of zero is a good thing as traders accept them as equals.

More importantly, we have seen some big moves in their exchange rates over the summer, with volume hitting almost a record high and observed volatility peaking at 6.75 per cent but now back to the long-term mean at 4 per cent.

September’s rally from a low of 6.4425 per US dollar has brought people to their senses. The massive monthly hammer marks an end to this year’s corrective move lower, coinciding very roughly with a 50 per cent correction and trend-line support from the record low in 2014.

Source: SCMP

http://www.scmp.com/business/markets/ar ... g-yuan-gap
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