USD 06 (Nov 15 - Dec 24)

USD 06 (Nov 15 - Dec 24)

Postby winston » Wed Nov 04, 2015 8:41 pm

Too Soon to Call Dollar Top Says World No. 2 Currency Trader

by Lananh Nguyen

Source: Bloomberg

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... o.headline
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Re: USD 05 (Jul 12 - Dec 15)

Postby winston » Mon Nov 09, 2015 4:38 am

Near-Sighted Investors Don't See These Signals By MICHAEL E. LEWITT

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) ended the week at 99.17, up sharply from its mid-October low of 94 as the Japanese Yen and Euro pierced key levels of 122 and $1.08, respectively.

The Yen ended the week at 123.13 and the Euro at 1.074 based on expectations that the Fed will move in December – and the realization that the ECB and Bank of Japan have no choice but to increase easing measures as their economies continue to circle the drain.

A stronger dollar will make it very difficult for the price of oil and other commodities to rise and much more likely they will test new lows.

A stronger dollar will also pressure the earnings of S&P 500 companies in the fourth quarter and 2016.

It will also increase the pressure on emerging markets that are already struggling to service the trillions of dollars of debt that they borrowed in recent years.

If you keep an eye on the dollar, you will have a pretty good idea of what is going to happen to the global economy and global markets. And if the dollar keeps rising, as I expect it to, the news won't be good.

Source: Money Morning
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Re: USD 05 (Jul 12 - Dec 15)

Postby winston » Mon Nov 09, 2015 4:45 am

Dollar Index DXY

You can profit from the dollar rally by investing in dollars and selling short Euros and Yen.

The most direct way you can do this is through three ETFs.

1. You can buy ProShares DB US Dollar Bullish ETF (UUP), which closely tracks the exposures in the DXY. This ETF rises when the dollar rises.

2. You can buy the Euro by buying ProShares Short Euro ETF (EUFX). This ETF rises when the Euro falls.

3. And you can sell short the Guggenheim Currency Shares Japanese Yen Trust ETF (FXY). Your short position will rise in value as the Yen weakens.

Source: Money Morning
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Re: USD 05 (Jul 12 - Dec 15)

Postby winston » Mon Nov 09, 2015 8:08 pm

Goldman: Dollar Bull Run Is Just Getting Started

By Shuli Ren

Source: Barron's Asia


http://blogs.barrons.com/asiastocks/201 ... s&ru=yahoo
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Re: USD 05 (Jul 12 - Dec 15)

Postby winston » Wed Nov 11, 2015 9:16 pm

U.S. Dollar Index hits a seven-month high
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Re: USD 05 (Jul 12 - Dec 15)

Postby winston » Sun Nov 15, 2015 5:08 pm

Undeniably Strong... but for How Long? by Karim Rahemtulla

The U.S. dollar's strength is undeniable. It has left almost every major currency on Earth in the dust over the past four years... and the dollar is showing no sign of weakening just yet.

But one indicator, called the Z-Score, is signaling that the dollar's winning ways may be ending soon. This indicator, which measures the dollar's strength against the six currencies that comprise the Dollar Index, recently hit a level that it has hit only twice before in the past 30 years.

On both of those two prior occasions - in 1982 and 1985 - the dollar reversed course and headed down sharply.

According to the Z-Score calculations, the dollar is currently "overbought" against each of the six currencies in the Dollar Index - the euro, Canadian dollar, Japanese yen, British pound, Swiss franc and Australian dollar. A reading this extreme has not occurred in 30 years. So if past is prologue, the dollar's next major move will be to the downside.

Dollar Danger

Some of the reasons for the dollar's strength are easy to understand. In no particular order, the following factors have contributed to the dollar's strength:
A strong U.S. stock market
A strong U.S. economy, compared to economies in the rest of the developed world
Slowing Chinese economic growth
Quantitative easing in Europe, which helps to hold interest rates well below U.S. rates.

And now, there's one more factor: The likelihood that the Federal Reserve will begin raising U.S. interest rates in December.

There is little question that these factors have been pushing the dollar higher. But there is also little question that speculative trading has been pushing the dollar higher as well.

Investors and speculators have been piling into what has been a one-way "can't lose" trade: buy the greenback and/or sell short any other currency.

But currencies are much like any other investment: When the crowd moves to the same side of the boat, that boat usually capsizes. And judging by how most investments react in today's marketplace, where overreaction is the code of conduct, the dollar could capsize and sink hard and fast, maybe harder and faster than it ever has in the past.

There is precedent for major currencies to sink suddenly. It happened to the euro earlier this year when the Swiss decided to cut the Swiss franc's managed peg to the euro. The franc instantly shot up by more than 20%, which is another way of saying that the euro instantly tumbled about 20% against the Swiss franc.

Z-Scores aside, there are other compelling reasons to expect the dollar to weaken. For starters, the dollar's strength is a detriment to U.S. economic growth. Products made in the USA are no longer cheap to the rest of the world. That means fewer sales and lower profits for U.S. corporations, which could lead to massive instability in the stock market. That's something the Federal Reserve definitely does not want to see and something that would force it to abandon its plan to hike interest rates.

The strong dollar also means that commodity prices tend to be low. That's certainly been true during the last four years, as commodity prices have collapsed. If this condition persists, or worsens, the U.S. economy could become deflationary. And that's something the Fed doesn't want either. Raising rates during a period of slow or no growth is bad enough. To do so in the face of falling prices would usher in a deflationary recession.

So the Fed would probably like to see the dollar weaken from current levels. And it may not take much of a nudge to kick the greenback down a few notches.

You see, the U.S. dollar is not moving higher because of some miraculous solution to the U.S. government's chronic overborrowing and overspending. The dollar is not moving higher because the U.S. has solved problems like labor participation or entitlement spending. It is not moving higher because the U.S. is printing fewer dollars. No, my friends, the U.S. dollar is moving higher because of an orchestrated move by other nations to move their currencies lower.

There is nothing fundamentally sound about that. If you own dollars, consider yourself lucky for now. But if you want to maintain that lucky streak, you may want to look for non-dollar investments that will increase in value once the dollar makes its inevitable turn lower.


Source: The Non-Dollar Report
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Re: USD 05 (Jul 12 - Dec 15)

Postby winston » Sat Nov 21, 2015 2:36 pm

The U.S. dollar is reaching a major inflection point…

by Justin Dove

Source: The Crux

http://thecrux.com/this-may-be-the-sing ... right-now/
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Re: USD 05 (Jul 12 - Dec 15)

Postby winston » Wed Nov 25, 2015 6:54 am

Don't bet on a surging dollar from here...

Source: Bloomberg

http://thecrux.com/the-worlds-top-curre ... lar-rally/
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Re: USD 05 (Jul 12 - Dec 15)

Postby winston » Wed Nov 25, 2015 11:14 pm

THIS VOLATILE ASSET IS BREAKING OUT

Today, an update on one of the most important economic indicators in the world. After taking a seven-month break, it looks like this trend may have just resumed...

We're talking about the big uptrend in the U.S. dollar. To check in on the performance of the dollar, we turn to the U.S. Dollar Index (USD).

This index measures the dollar's value against a basket of foreign currencies, like the Japanese yen and the euro. It's the generally agreed-upon measure of the dollar's global trade value.

Over the years, we've written about how the dollar bounces up and down with tremendous volatility. From July 2014 to March 2015, the U.S. Dollar Index soared from 80 to 100, a huge move for a major currency. After falling hard over the summer, it looked like the run was over. But now, the dollar is breaking out again...

In March, the dollar hit a 12-year high. As you can see from the chart below, the dollar is inching closer to topping March's levels. After suffering a big downside break, it looks like this volatile asset is back in "bull" mode...

Source: Daily Wealth
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Re: USD 05 (Jul 12 - Dec 15)

Postby winston » Thu Nov 26, 2015 6:46 am

How is it possible that the dollar is rising and falling at the same time?

By Simon Black

Source: Sovereign Man

http://www.thetradingreport.com/2015/11/25/157148/
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