AUD 02 (Feb 12 - Dec 20)

Re: AUD 02 (Feb 12 - Dec 16)

Postby winston » Fri May 06, 2016 9:49 am

Aussie Slips After RBA Cuts 2016 Inflation Forecast

By Shuli Ren

The Australian dollar slipped 0.5% to 0.7424 this morning after the Reserve Bank of Australia cut its 2016 inflation forecast.

The RBA now sees Australia’s inflation to be at 1-2% by year-end, versus 2-3% previously.

Meanwhile, the central bank kept its 2016 GDP growth forecast unchanged at 2.5-3.5%.

The RBA says it will adjust policy as needed to foster growth, so … more rate cuts?

Source: Barron's Asia

http://blogs.barrons.com/asiastocks/201 ... -forecast/
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Re: AUD 02 (Feb 12 - Dec 16)

Postby winston » Tue May 17, 2016 10:32 am

Aussie Jumps After Minutes Suggests RBA May “Await” Before Cutting Rates Further

By Shuli Ren

The Australian dollar jumped 0.7% to 0.7343 recently as traders bet that the May interest rate cut was a one-time thing.

On May 3, the Reserve Bank of Australia cut its benchmark interest rate from 2% to 1.75%, the first cut after a year, as Australia’s inflation rate softened.

In the May meeting minutes, the RBA confirmed that softer inflation was the reason behind the cut:

In coming to their policy decision, members noted that developments over recent months had not led to a material change in the outlook for economic activity or the unemployment rate, but the outlook for inflation had been revised lower.

Currency traders seized on this line:

Members discussed the merits of adjusting policy at this meeting or awaiting further information before acting.

So the RBA was very careful with rate cuts then? See also Barron’s Asia colleague Robert Guy‘s May 7 cover story “Bet On the Aussie Buck“.

The Australian dollar has been in the decline in May, after soft inflation data came out. It has tumbled 6.7% from 0.7813 in mid-April to 0.7287 as of yesterday’s close. The iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA) has retreated 3.6%.

Source: Barron's Asia
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Re: AUD 02 (Feb 12 - Dec 16)

Postby winston » Wed Jun 01, 2016 10:26 am

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Aussie Soars On GDP Beat: No More RBA Rate Cuts?

By Shuli Ren

The Australian dollar soars for a second day, rising 0.7% to 0.7283 after Australia’s economy grew faster than expected.

In the March quarter, Australia’s GDP grew 3.1%, higher than the street expectation of 2.8% and faster than December quarter’s 3%.

Yesterday, the Aussie gained 0.7% as well after the total number of building approvals issued in Australia climbed unexpectedly in April, a sign that the construction sector is picking up.

Both data points discourage traders that bet on further interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia.

But some of it is also because the Aussie had a dismal May. Last month, the U.S. dollar pretty much gained against every currency except for the British pound. So it is not a surprise that the U.S. dollar may take a breather and let the Australian dollar bounce.

Overnight, the iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA) fell 0.7%.

Source: Barron's Asia
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Re: AUD 02 (Feb 12 - Dec 16)

Postby winston » Fri Jun 03, 2016 12:34 pm

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Three reasons why the Aussie dollar won’t rebound anytime soon

By Samantha Menzies

The Aussie dollar has depreciated by over 30% against the US dollar since mid-2011, and it shows no near sign of recovering


With China transitioning to a slower growth economy versus the previous decade, it is highly unlikely we will see commodity prices close to where they were just a few years ago


The Reserve Bank has lowered the interest rate to a lowest-ever 1.75%, and signs suggest it could fall further, meanwhile other major developed countries are looking to raise rates as they continue to recover.


“If history repeats itself, the Australian dollar will likely trade under US$0.80 or even under US$0.70 for some time to come, until other industries are able to fill the economic gap left by the end of the commodities boom.”


Source: Yahoo7 Finance

https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/three ... 02889.html
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Re: AUD 02 (Feb 12 - Dec 16)

Postby winston » Mon Jun 06, 2016 9:02 am

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AUD Watch: Why RBA May Have To Cut Interest Rates To 1%

By Shuli Ren

Source: Barron's Asia

http://blogs.barrons.com/asiastocks/201 ... ates-to-1/
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Re: AUD 02 (Feb 12 - Dec 16)

Postby winston » Tue Jun 07, 2016 12:52 pm

Aussie Jumps As RBA Holds, Patient With Low Inflation

By Shuli Ren

The Australian dollar crossed the 0.74 per dollar level after the Reserve Bank of Australia kept its benchmark interest rate on hold at 1.75% without sounding any indications of further rate cuts.

The RBA commented in a statement that the Australian economic growth was “continuing” and it seemed to be comfortable with low inflation for a while:

Source: Barron's Asia

http://blogs.barrons.com/asiastocks/201 ... inflation/
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Re: AUD 02 (Feb 12 - Dec 16)

Postby winston » Tue Jun 21, 2016 10:46 am

AUD Watch: RBA Shifts Gear To Growth, In No Rush To Cut Rates

By Shuli Ren

Forget Brexit. A dovish Federal Reserve and a patient Reserve Bank of Australia have brought the Australian dollar back to its early June level when the Australian central bank held rate steady.

The June minutes released today show that the RBI has shifted its focus from inflation to the real side of the economy.

“Members began their discussion of the Australian economy by noting that growth in real GDP in the March quarter was stronger than anticipated in the May,” started the minutes.

Source: Barron's Asia

http://blogs.barrons.com/asiastocks/201 ... cut-rates/
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Re: AUD 02 (Feb 12 - Dec 16)

Postby winston » Mon Jul 04, 2016 9:24 am

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AUD Watch: Will Australia’s Election Limbo Prompt RBA To Cut Rates?

By Shuli Ren

Australia is not able to escape the global trend of rising political uncertainty either.

Over the weekend, Australia’s federal election turned out too close to call. Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull‘s center-right Liberal Party may now need independent and minor parties to reform government, while the opposition Labor Party may even have a chance of forming the government itself.

Turnbull’s coalition now has 71 seats, the opposition has 65 seats. Either of the major parties require 76 seats for an absolute majority. There are now 5 seats polling for independents and 1 for the greens. If Turnbull does not get 76 seats, he will have to negotiate with the minor parties.

We are not likely to know the final counts for a few days, and commentators worry that if the governing coalition can’t reach a majority, there will be an potential for a hung government incapable of pushing through reforms. Incidentally, the Reserve Bank of Australia will meet tomorrow to decide on its monetary policies.

Will the RBA cut rates to boost the economy? A rate cut is not good for the Australian dollar.

Source: Barron's Asia

http://blogs.barrons.com/asiastocks/201 ... cut-rates/
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Re: AUD 02 (Feb 12 - Dec 16)

Postby winston » Tue Jul 05, 2016 10:54 am

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Aussie Slips Ahead of RBA: Retail, Trade Data Show GDP Growth Slowing

By Shuli Ren

Australia reported $2.2 billion Australian dollars of trade deficit in May, compared with A$1.7 billion polled by Bloomberg. A larger trade deficit pressures a currency downwards.

In addition, retail sales grew only 0.2%, versus 0.3% forecast by the street. Weaker economy may prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut rates, which also pressures the Aussie.

As a result, the Aussie fell 0.3% to 0.7508 recently. The RBA will deliver its rate decisions later today.

Source: Barron's Asia

http://blogs.barrons.com/asiastocks/201 ... h-slowing/
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Re: AUD 02 (Feb 12 - Dec 16)

Postby winston » Tue Jul 12, 2016 11:10 am

Aussie Jumps As Australia’s Business Conditions Reach Highest Since 2009

By Shuli Ren

The Australian dollar jumped 0.8% this morning to 0.7590 per U.S. dollar on bets that the Reserve Bank of Australia is in no mood to cut rates anytime soon.

Boosting today’s sentiments is a closely watched business conditions survey conducted by the National Australia Bank.

The June survey – undertaken amid the heightened uncertainty around Brexit and ahead of Australia’s Federal Election two weekends ago – showed business conditions were at its highest level since the Great Financial Crisis.

Source: Barron's Asia

http://blogs.barrons.com/asiastocks/201 ... ince-2009/
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