AUD 02 (Feb 12 - Dec 20)

[winston]

vested

Australian Dollar At 8-Month High: Will RBA Intervene?

By Shuli Ren

Source: Barron's Asia

http://blogs.barrons.com/asiastocks/201 ... intervene/

[behappyalways]

BlackRock Isn't Buying the Aussie's Rally
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... -this-year

[winston]

Why Election And Census Can Extend The Aussie Rally

By Shuli Ren

Source: Barron's Asia

http://blogs.barrons.com/asiastocks/201 ... sie-rally/

[winston]

vested

Australian Dollar Is Heading Back Down, Warns Morgan Stanley

By Shuli Ren

Morgan Stanley sees the Aussie to fall back to 0.70 per dollar. However, it concedes that the currency will stay elevated for a while.

First, the bank sees the Fed to keep rates on hold till December, which means a prolonged period of weaker U.S. dollar.

Second, it is Australian politics. “The May budget complicates the chance for an imminent RBA cut.”

Source: Barron's Asia


http://blogs.barrons.com/asiastocks/201 ... n-stanley/

[winston]

Aussie Marches On: April Minutes Show RBA Is Not Worried

By Shuli Ren

The Australian dollar climbed to its highest level in 10 months this morning, encouraged by firm oil prices despite a fallout at the Doha summit on Sunday.

Source: Barron's Asia

http://blogs.barrons.com/asiastocks/201 ... t-worried/

[winston]

Aussie Slips: Weak Inflation May Prompt RBA Rate Cuts, As Soon As May 3

By Shuli Ren

Source: Barron's Asia

http://blogs.barrons.com/asiastocks/201 ... -as-may-3/

[winston]

Citi Raises AUD Forecast To 0.82 Ahead Of RBA Meeting

By Shuli Ren

Commodity prices, rather than potential rate cuts from the Reserve Bank of Australia, have been driving the Australian dollar, which has strengthened 4.6% this year against the greenback.

Look at the Australian dollar’s recent movements. Last week, on April 27, the Aussie stepped back 2.1% to 0.7588 after Australia reported weaker-than-expected inflation numbers, boosting bets that the RBA will cut rates today. However, the Aussie has climbed stealthily since, back to 0.7703, just shy of April 26′s 0.7748 close.

A regression analysis conducted by Citi Research shows that the Australian dollar is a lot more sensitive to commodity prices movements than RBA rate cuts.

For instance, should bulk commodity prices including oil and iron ore reverse their recent surge, the Australian dollar would be 8% lower than its current level. However, a 50 basis points cut by the RBA would only lower the aussie by 3%, the bank finds.

As a result, Citi now sees the aussie to end the year at 82 U.S. cents, or another 3.9% upside from today, if commodity prices stay at the current level.

Year-to-date, the iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA) has risen 5.9% thanks to the currency gain.

Source: Barron's Asia

[winston]

RBA just cut interest rates by 25 bps to 1.75%

[winston]

Aussie Slips After RBA Cuts Rates

By Shuli Ren

Low interest rates have been supporting demand and the lower exchange rate overall has helped the traded sector.

Credit growth to households continues at a moderate pace, while that to businesses has picked up over the past year or so.

These factors are all assisting the economy to make the necessary economic adjustments, though an appreciating exchange rate could complicate this.

Source: Barron's Asia

http://blogs.barrons.com/asiastocks/201 ... uts-rates/

[winston]

Australia Restarts the Currency Wars

By Valentin Schmid

Source: Epoch Times

http://www.theepochtimes.com/n3/2054539 ... ency-wars/