AUD 02 (Feb 12 - Dec 20)

Re: AUD 02 (Feb 12 - Dec 16)

Postby winston » Mon Aug 01, 2016 1:23 pm

Will The RBA Cut Rates Tomorrow?

By Robert Guy

So will Glenn Stevens pull the trigger on one more rate cut before he exits after 10 years at the helm of the Reserve Bank of Australia?

The decision is seen as a close call after last week’s better than expected inflation data, but the ASX’s Rate Indicator shows traders have priced in a 64% chance of a cut in interest rates to a record low 1.5% tomorrow.

Source: Barron's Asia

http://blogs.barrons.com/asiastocks/201 ... -tomorrow/
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Re: AUD 02 (Feb 12 - Dec 16)

Postby winston » Tue Aug 02, 2016 1:58 pm

RBA Cuts Rates To Record Low of 1.5%

By Robert Guy

The Reserve Bank of Australia has cut its official interest rate to 1.5%, with the central bank highlighting a return to its 2%-3% inflation target as a consideration in the move.

The Australian dollar fell around half a U.S. cent immediately and traded just below $0.75 recently. As for stocks, the S&P/ASX200 Index is down 0.4%.

Here’s the nub of the RBA’s decision;

In Australia, recent data suggest that overall growth is continuing at a moderate pace, despite a very large decline in business investment.

Other areas of domestic demand, as well as exports, have been expanding at a pace at or above trend.

Labour market indicators continue to be somewhat mixed, but are consistent with a modest pace of expansion in employment in the near term.

Recent data confirm that inflation remains quite low. Given very subdued growth in labour costs and very low cost pressures elsewhere in the world, this is expected to remain the case for some time.

Source: Barron's Asia
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Re: AUD 02 (Feb 12 - Dec 16)

Postby winston » Tue Aug 09, 2016 11:16 am

Goldman is bullish on the Aussie, seeing it hit 0.82 per dollar

To get to this conclusion, the bank analysts used regression models and observed the Reserve Bank of Australia:

Our regression models continue to send strong undervaluation signals for the AUD, which fits with our economists who – having been bearish for many years – recently turned more agnostic.

This also fits with their sense that the RBA is on the sidelines for now, with a cut in November no more than a 50:50 probability.

The Aussie pared back 0.3% today after a weaker business conditions survey conducted by the National Australia Bank.

Source: Barron's Asia
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Re: AUD 02 (Feb 12 - Dec 16)

Postby winston » Mon Aug 15, 2016 11:12 am

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Credit Suisse Goes Bullish On Aussie, Sees 0.80 And Higher

By Shuli Ren

The Australian dollar will drift higher, according to Credit Suisse currency strategist Koon How Heng, who upgraded the Aussie to positive from neutral today.

Heng sees three reasons why the Aussie will go higher.

First, the Reserve Bank of Australia will continue to stick to a monetary policy geared towards inflation targets. As long as Australia’s inflation holds up, the RBA will keep its rates steady too, despite two cuts this year. Heng writes:

Both headline and underlying inflation should stabilize at current levels in H2 and the largest part of the downshift in inflation expectations is also likely over. In fact, Australia’s Q2 inflation data, while relatively weak, did not deteriorate further compared to Q1.

Last week, the outgoing RBA Governor Glenn Stevens warned of the limits to rate cuts and quantitative easing in his last public speech as the governor.

Second, stable and strong iron ore prices will give the Aussie a boost. Iron ore is Australia’s largest export. Iron ore prices have climbed from just $40 per metric ton at the start to the year to about $60 now.”This positive outlook for crude oil is generally supportive of the energy complex and consequently, positive for AUD/USD as well.”

Third, yield! Even after the two cuts, the RBA’s benchmark rate is still at 1.5%. The 10-year Australia government bond yield is at 1.89% now, so much more attractive than U.K’s 0.55% and Japan and Germany’s negative rates.

The Australian dollar has risen 5% this year to 0.7639 per U.S. dollar this morning. The iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA) has gained 10%.

Source: Barron's Asia

http://blogs.barrons.com/asiastocks/201 ... nd-higher/
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Re: AUD 02 (Feb 12 - Dec 16)

Postby winston » Mon Aug 15, 2016 11:12 am

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Credit Suisse Goes Bullish On Aussie, Sees 0.80 And Higher

By Shuli Ren

The Australian dollar will drift higher, according to Credit Suisse currency strategist Koon How Heng, who upgraded the Aussie to positive from neutral today.

Heng sees three reasons why the Aussie will go higher.

First, the Reserve Bank of Australia will continue to stick to a monetary policy geared towards inflation targets. As long as Australia’s inflation holds up, the RBA will keep its rates steady too, despite two cuts this year. Heng writes:

Both headline and underlying inflation should stabilize at current levels in H2 and the largest part of the downshift in inflation expectations is also likely over. In fact, Australia’s Q2 inflation data, while relatively weak, did not deteriorate further compared to Q1.

Last week, the outgoing RBA Governor Glenn Stevens warned of the limits to rate cuts and quantitative easing in his last public speech as the governor.

Second, stable and strong iron ore prices will give the Aussie a boost. Iron ore is Australia’s largest export. Iron ore prices have climbed from just $40 per metric ton at the start to the year to about $60 now.”This positive outlook for crude oil is generally supportive of the energy complex and consequently, positive for AUD/USD as well.”

Third, yield! Even after the two cuts, the RBA’s benchmark rate is still at 1.5%. The 10-year Australia government bond yield is at 1.89% now, so much more attractive than U.K’s 0.55% and Japan and Germany’s negative rates.

The Australian dollar has risen 5% this year to 0.7639 per U.S. dollar this morning. The iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA) has gained 10%.

Source: Barron's Asia

http://blogs.barrons.com/asiastocks/201 ... nd-higher/
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Re: AUD 02 (Feb 12 - Dec 16)

Postby winston » Thu Aug 18, 2016 7:27 am

Why The Aussie, Kiwi Will Stay Stronger For Longer

By Shuli Ren

Why are the Aussie and Kiwi so strong?

National Australia Bank threw in the towel today and raised its forecasts on both currencies.

First, in a world of negative rates and investors grabbing whatever yield they can get, Australia and New Zealand are very attractive places to invest in. Australian 10-year government bonds are still yielding 1.9%, while New Zealand yields 2.2%, the highest among developed countries.

Second, we are seeing surreal calm this summer. Low equity volatility supports demand for riskier assets such as the Aussie and Kiwi.

Third, “declines in Australian and New Zealand inflation – whether actual or inflation expectations – and meaning that real yields (and real yield differentials) have not declined as fast as nominal yields and yield spreads,” wrote analyst Ray Attrill.

National Australia Bank continues to see one rate hike from the Fed this year, in December, just like BlackRock.


Source: Barron's Asia

http://blogs.barrons.com/asiastocks/201 ... or-longer/
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Re: AUD 02 (Feb 12 - Dec 16)

Postby winston » Tue Sep 06, 2016 10:22 am

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Aussie Rises As RBA Seen On Hold In September Meeting

By Shuli Ren

The Australian dollar rose 0.3% this morning to 0.76 per U.S. dollar, whereas the New Zealand dollar gained only 0.05% as we wait for the Reserve Bank of Australia‘s latest policy decision in the afternoon.

This is the last board meeting for Governor Glenn Stevens and all 33 economists polled by Reuters expect Stevens to hold the rates steady today.

He already cut interest rates twice in the last four months and in his last public speech as the RBA Governor, he warned of the limits to monetary policies.

The debate now is what his successor Philip Lowe, currently the Deputy Governor, will do. Many analysts expect no change in RBA’s thinking.

Year-to-date, the Aussie managed to return 4.6% despite all the rate cuts. An iron ore price rebound as well as higher yields have helped this currency.

The ASX S&P 200 Index fell 0.3% this morning. Year-to-date, the iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA) rose 8.8%.

Source: Barron's Asia
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Re: AUD 02 (Feb 12 - Dec 16)

Postby winston » Thu Feb 02, 2017 10:16 am

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Aussie Soars As Australia Hits Record Trade Surplus: More To Come?

By Shuli Ren

The Australian dollar gained 0.6% to 0.7627 to the U.S. dollar, the best performer in Asia, after Australia reported record trade surplus in December.

In December, Australia reported a record $3.5 billion Australian dollars of trade surplus, blowing past A$2 billion expected by the street, boosted by higher commodity prices and volume.

Australia’s trade positions can improve further in the first quarter, according to Tapas Strickland, economist at National Australia Bank:

A string of further trade surpluses is likely over the first half of 2017 given higher commodity prices and increasing volumes. Separate data released by the RBA earlier in the week noted that the prices for Australia’s commodities rose again in January (up 4.1% m/m), while the Q1 2017 coking coal contract price settled at $285 a tonne, up an incredible 43% from the $200 a tonne level for Q4 2016.

Higher trade surpluses certainly bode well for the Australian dollar, but the currency speculators seem to hold an agnostic view of the Aussie. While stronger commodity prices bode well for the Australian dollar, the U.S. dollar has been singularly strong.

Source: Barron's Asia

http://blogs.barrons.com/asiastocks/201 ... e-to-come/
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Re: AUD 02 (Feb 12 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Mon Feb 06, 2017 6:43 pm

Australian dollar heading toward resistance

by Daryl Guppy

The Australian dollar provides good opportunities for traders and we continue to use the ANTSYSS trade method to extract good returns from these movements.

Investors will take profits as the Australian dollar nears $0.775.

New investors and tourists need to exercise patience in anticipation of a retreat back towards $0.715.


Source: CNBC

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/02/05/australi ... yptr=yahoo
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Re: AUD 02 (Feb 12 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Fri Feb 24, 2017 7:41 am

RBA governor wants lower $A

Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe says the depreciation of the Australian dollar in recent years has helped some industries but he wants to see it fall further.

"I would like it to be lower than higher, if I had that choice," Dr Lowe told a parliamentary economics committee on Friday.

He said the depreciation since 2013 had helped the tourism and education sectors as well as some parts of manufacturing.

Source: AAP
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