Currency - General News

Re: Currency - General News

Postby behappyalways » Mon May 07, 2018 10:54 am

Emerging markets wobble: Argentina hikes rates to 40%
http://money.cnn.com/2018/05/04/investi ... index.html
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Re: Currency - General News

Postby behappyalways » Mon Jul 09, 2018 4:37 pm

jpmorgan-maps-out-currencies-to-buy-if-a-recession-is-coming
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -is-coming
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Re: Currency - General News

Postby winston » Mon Jul 23, 2018 8:27 am

Currency war is more dangerous than trade war

by Ivan Tong

As the yuan continues to fall, US President Donald Trump has now begun to accuse China of manipulating its currency to boost its export competitiveness.

Although the currency war comes after the trade war, if the trend continues, it will turn into a "which came first, the chicken or the egg?" conundrum.

The US will find a currency war more difficult to win than a trade war.

If a country is identified as a currency manipulator, the US can use Section 301 of the US Trade Act of 1974 to impose punitive tariffs on the offending country. In another words, the weapon that the US has in a currency war is a trade war. Thus, the trade and currency war will meld into one war.

Donald Trump is an extraordinary president. He has criticized the Federal Reserve's rate hikes, which were made on the back of a better economy, breaking the golden rule that a president should never intervene in Fed policy.

I'll eat my hat if Trump's words did not impinge on the Fed's independence!

By blasting the Fed's rate hike, raising new threats to slap tariffs on US$500 billion worth of Chinese goods and accusing China of manipulating its currency, Trump has fired three missiles in China's direction.

Beijing certainly will not acknowledge that China has taken advantage of a weaker yuan to increase its export competitiveness and counter punitive tariffs slapped by the US.

However, the yuan's fall started in the second quarter of this year. Last week, it fell to 6.814 against the US dollar, down 8 percent compared to the first quarter. This fall is close to the 10-percent tariff rate slapped on China in the second round of the trade war.

More importantly, the amplitude of the yuan is much greater than that of the US dollar index.

In terms of trade volumes, China is weaker than the US and does not have enough gunpowder in its armory. This is why China emphasized it would make use of both quantitative and qualitative measures in its toolbox to fight the trade war.

China's intervention in the currency rate may be subtle, and it would be silly if Beijing did not hit the US behind its back.

Annoyed by this, Trump is trying to lower the US dollar for exports, and lambasting the Fed over expected US rate hikes. If these measures fail, with midterm elections round the corner, Trump may go for a fresh currency war.

Once a currency war breaks out, global markets will become more volatile. Stock markets, currency markets and even fixed-asset markets would suffer.

Trump should take a hard look in the mirror before pointing fingers. On the one hand, he's accusing China of currency manipulation but on the other, he's berating the Fed, to slow down its rate hikes. His aim is to influence currency rates.

However, Trump should know the US does not have any weapon that's as efficient as China's in a currency war.

China already has regulations on foreign exchange control to restrict capital outflows. Unless the US's economy declines or the trade war spirals out of control and pushes the US dollar lower, any export strategy gains would only be temporary.

This week, the US dollar index may claw back, while the yuan should get some breathing space to recover after a sharp drop. The Hang Seng Index may also bounce back.

However, since the trade war has entered a new level, the currency markets will be more volatile. Its not just the yuan at risk, as other currencies too may experience wild fluctuations. It may be a good opportunity for speculators but harmful to long-term investors.

Source: The Standard HK

http://www.thestandard.com.hk/section-n ... 0723&sid=2
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Re: Currency - General News

Postby winston » Fri Sep 07, 2018 5:07 am

Why the ‘fragile five’ emerging market currencies have alarm bells ringing again

Nicholas Spiro says despite strengthening economic fundamentals, Brazil, India, Indonesia, South Africa and Turkey face the risk of capital flight if investor sentiment continues to weaken

Source: SCMP

https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-op ... currencies
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Re: Currency - General News

Postby behappyalways » Thu May 23, 2019 11:53 am

Asian Central Banks Move to Curb Rapid Currency Declines
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/asian-ce ... 34934.html
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Re: Currency - General News

Postby behappyalways » Wed May 29, 2019 2:45 pm

Why Singapore, Malaysia, Vietnam Were Added to U.S. Currency Watchlist
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/singapor ... 42267.html
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Re: Currency - General News

Postby winston » Sun Jun 28, 2020 8:41 am

Brace for FX correction in July, warns DBS

Wee and Chang see a sharp correction in July for strong forex performers for June and Q2, particularly the Indonesian Rupiah (IDR), Australian Dollar (AUD) and New Zealand Dollar (NZD).

The Euro is likely to have more scope for a lower correction than Sterling, while the Swiss National Bank has promised to defend the Swiss Franc (CHF) should it fall close to its perceived floor of around EURCHF1.05.

Back in Asia, the analysts have agreed with the Thai government’s prognosis that the Thai Bhat is overbought relative to the Kingdom’s weaker fundamentals.

The Philippine Peso is currently holding at a resistance level of PHP50 to the US Dollar.

Export-driven currencies like the Korean Won and Singapore Dollar will probably face downward pressures should the NASDAQ fall to sub 10,000 points.


Source: The Edge

https://www.theedgesingapore.com/capita ... -warns-dbs
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Re: Currency - General News

Postby winston » Tue Oct 06, 2020 12:57 pm

The Top 10 Most Tradable Currencies in the World

The bulk of currency trading is done in a small number of currencies. Here are some of the most tradable currencies.

by DAVE BUTLERUPDA

Source: The Street

https://www.thestreet.com/markets/top-1 ... yptr=yahoo
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Re: Currency - General News

Postby winston » Mon Feb 01, 2021 8:05 am

As policy fizzles, watch out for currency wars

by Andrew Wong

With the euro near a six-year high, the ECB would consider further interest rate cuts to prevent further euro appreciation, from affecting inflation in the euro zone.

Even if monetary policy is further loosened, it won't have much of a stimulating effect since the world is still beset by the coronavirus pandemic.

If they abandon ultra-quantitative easing now, there will be a significant decline in stock markets, which will only make the global economy worse.

Therefore, central banks may now have to focus on devaluing their currencies to boost exports and trade.

But it also means that there is a real possibility that a currency war is coming, which could actually do more harm to the global economy in the long run.


Source: The Standard

https://www.thestandard.com.hk/section- ... rency-wars
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Re: Currency - General News

Postby behappyalways » Mon Feb 21, 2022 8:40 pm

According To The 'Big Mac Index', China's Yuan Is 34% Under-Valued
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ ... der-valued
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