Currency - General News

Re: Currency - General News

Postby winston » Wed Nov 25, 2015 10:43 am

What If Asian Currencies Tumble Further?

By Shuli Ren

Which equity markets will lose the most? And how about debt? CLSA kindly provided us with some historical data.

Interestingly, rather than the traditional export-oriented countries such as Korea and Taiwan, Malaysia‘s stock market stands to benefit the most from a slumping ringgit. The correlation coefficient since 2010 between equity market and currency performance was well over negative 40%.

On the flip side of the coin, Thailand stands to lose the most from a falling baht. The correlation coefficient between the equity and currency movements there is over 50%.

As for markets that have the highest U.S. dollar debt exposure, corporates in the Philippines top the list, followed by Indonesia, Thailand, China and Malaysia.

Specifically, First Gen Corp. (FGEN.Philippines) has 119% net gearing and its dollar debt is 72% of its total debt. Cebu Air (CEB.Philippines) has 124% net gearing and 88% of its total debt is denominated in U.S. dollar.

Source: Barron's Asia
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Re: Currency - General News

Postby winston » Fri Dec 18, 2015 7:21 am

Currency Collapse

By Jeff Thomas

Source: Sprott Money

http://www.thetradingreport.com/2015/12 ... -collapse/
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Re: Currency - General News

Postby winston » Sat Jan 23, 2016 9:16 am

Capital controls are coming…

by Nick Giambruno

Source: International Man

http://thecrux.com/capital-controls-are ... rself-now/
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Re: Currency - General News

Postby behappyalways » Fri Feb 05, 2016 4:51 pm

Dollar tumbles as Fed rescues China in the nick of time
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/econ ... -time.html
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Re: Currency - General News

Postby winston » Fri Feb 26, 2016 7:51 pm

6 Factors That Influence Exchange Rates

By Jason Van Bergen

Source: Investopedia

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/ba ... er=YahooSA
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Re: Currency - General News

Postby winston » Tue Apr 05, 2016 7:43 am

Sell Asian currencies, advises Goldman

It is time to sell Asian currencies after their best monthly rally in more than seven years, according to Goldman Sachs Group.

"The currencies will resume declines as further easing in China and Japan is likely to push the yuan and yen to their weakest levels since at least 2008," says Kamakshya Trivedi, a strategist at the bank who correctly predicted in November that emerging markets would recover in 2016.

South Korea's won led the March rally with an 8.2 percent advance and the Malaysian ringgit's 7.8 percent jump was its biggest since 1998. A gauge of 10 Asian currencies excluding the yen rose 3 percent.

"These are good levels to short Asian currencies, especially the won, baht, Taiwan dollar, yuan and ringgit," said Goldman's chief emerging-market macro strategist in London. "There are very direct implications for emerging-market currencies in Asia from yuan moves. We forecast more weakness across this currency complex."

Developing-nation exchange rates completed their strongest month since at least 1999 as commodities rebounded and the dollar slumped on bets after the Federal Reserve signaled it will move slowly in raising US interest rates. However, Asian exports are yet to recover, raising the prospects for a new wave of devaluations across the region as the yuan depreciates against China's trade partners and expectations mount for additional monetary stimulus in Japan, according to Trivedi.

Goldman predicts a 14 percent plunge in the yen to 130 per dollar in the next 12 months, a level last seen in 2002, and a 7.4 percent drop in the yuan to 7.0 versus the greenback, which would be the weakest since May 2008.

The won will decline almost 12 percent from current levels to 1,300 in the period, according to Trivedi, who recommends shorting the Korean currency.

While the yuan has advanced 0.45 percent versus the dollar this year, its nominal effective exchange rate has dropped the most in the region, according to Westpac Banking Corp's indexes.

Source: BLOOMBERG
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Re: Currency - General News

Postby winston » Thu Apr 28, 2016 7:02 pm

Currency Trading's 20% Drop Raises Specter of Flash-Crash Future

by Rachel Evans

Sudden, disruptive price swings pick up as volumes decline

Yen jumped 2.6 percent in less than 3 minutes on BOJ decision

Source: Bloomberg

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... ash-future
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Re: Currency - General News

Postby winston » Mon May 23, 2016 8:07 am

'Short Singapore dollar' idea was a winner

by Matein Khalid

Source: Khaleej Times

http://www.khaleejtimes.com/business/ma ... s-a-winner
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Re: Currency - General News

Postby winston » Sat May 28, 2016 1:08 pm

World Currency Profit Game Plan – Phase 1

By MICHAEL E. LEWITT

Source: Money Morning

http://moneymorning.com/2016/05/25/worl ... n-phase-1/
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Re: Currency - General News

Postby winston » Sat Jul 16, 2016 5:59 pm

Fed's Kashkari says dollar could lose reserve currency status

ST. LOUIS (Reuters) - Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari said on Friday "it's possible" the dollar could lose its status as the world's sole reserve currency during his lifetime.

If the euro or China's yuan did become the world's reserve currency, said the 42-year-old Kashkari, it could be a positive development for the United States, whose currency strengthens during global crises, hurting U.S. exports and manufacturing.

Kashkari, who spoke during a panel discussion in St. Louis, also said he is encouraged that inflation is creeping up toward the Fed's 2 percent target.

He added that he sees no possibility the U.S. central bank could overshoot on inflation.

Source: Reuters
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