JPY 03 (Dec 16 - Dec 25)

Re: JPY 02 (Oct 11 - Mar 17)

Postby winston » Mon Oct 02, 2017 5:10 am

USD/JPY: 112.47 versus 112.442.

Holding the move higher through the 200 day SMA.

source: Investment House
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Re: JPY 02 (Oct 11 - Mar 17)

Postby winston » Mon Oct 09, 2017 11:34 am

USD/JPY: 112.643 versus 112.818.

Still in the 1.5 week lateral move along the 10 day EMA and just below the July and May peaks.

Source: Investment House
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Re: JPY 02 (Oct 11 - Mar 17)

Postby winston » Fri Oct 13, 2017 2:32 pm

not vested

Frightful ETFs to Flee: Guggenheim CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust ETF (FXY)

The Guggenheim CurrencyShares Japanese (NYSEARCA:FXY) ETF is structured to invest in derived securities that are structured to track the price movement of the Japanese yen against the U.S. dollar.

And that’s been a minor success so far this year seeing a little gain of some 3%. But that pales in comparison to how the ETF has performed for the trailing twelve months losing over 8% and a whopping loss of nearly 32% for the past five years.

Moreover, the yen has a litany of challenges that should result in not only wiping out that minuscule bounce but a continued downward march against the dollar.

At the top of the list is the near to negative short-term interest rates. This means that traders and investors from private equity to hedge funds continue to use the yen as a funding currency.

By borrowing or swapping yen investors can in effect borrow at a near zero or negative interest rate and use the proceeds in higher performing assets or higher-yielding currencies.

And with the economy while up in some sectors seen as fragile, particularly in the vital retail sector, the Bank of Japan has little to no room to direct interest rates higher.

Meanwhile, U.S. and many other markets are already posting somewhat higher yields even if modestly, but that’s all it takes to make shorting the yen a worthwhile and risk-controlled bet.

Good for those selling the yen, bad for those investing in this ETF. And even with many Japanese corporations faring better in their earning, much of that is credited with the cheaper petrol and natural gas prices reducing.

And even more to the fall in the yen over which has resulted in foreign revenues generating high net income in yen terms.

And households remain cautious as economic fear pervades throughout the economy, amplified with a lack of wage growth. Then there’s the mess on the Korean peninsula and missiles flying about and over the islands of Japan. Not the best case for Japanese economy and for the yen.

Source: Investor Place
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Re: JPY 02 (Oct 11 - Mar 17)

Postby winston » Mon Oct 16, 2017 11:50 am

USD/JPY: 111.852 versus 112.25.

Dollar faded toward the 200 day SMA all week as the data suggests the Fed might not be so tough as it says it will be.

Source: Investment House
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Re: JPY 02 (Oct 11 - Mar 17)

Postby winston » Mon Oct 23, 2017 8:37 am

USD/JPY: 113.530 versus 112.561.

Dollar surged Friday, continuing the Wednesday break higher.

Cleared the Sep/Oct highs and now looking at the July high.

Source: Investment House
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Re: JPY 02 (Oct 11 - Mar 17)

Postby winston » Mon Oct 30, 2017 7:50 am

USD/JPY: 113.675 versus 114.071.

Dollar moving up the 10 day EMA but up one session, down the next.

Source: Investment House
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Re: JPY 02 (Oct 11 - Mar 17)

Postby winston » Mon Nov 06, 2017 4:36 pm

USD/JPY: 114.064 versus 114.010.

Rallied back to the prior week's high and the July high.

First real test of the new move upside.

Source: Investment House
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Re: JPY 02 (Oct 11 - Mar 17)

Postby winston » Mon Nov 13, 2017 10:18 am

USD/JPY: 113.526 versus 113.379.

Dollar faded on the week, holding at the 20 day EMA to close the festivities.

Source: Investment House
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Re: JPY 02 (Oct 11 - Mar 17)

Postby winston » Mon Nov 20, 2017 1:12 pm

USD/JPY: 112.124 versus 112.91.

After peaking in early November at a higher high, the dollar has rolled over against the yen, falling through the 50 day MA Thursday and extending that move lower Friday.

Heading back to the October low roughly coincident with the 200 day SMA.

Source: Investment House
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Re: JPY 02 (Oct 11 - Mar 17)

Postby winston » Mon Jan 29, 2018 6:20 pm

USD/JPY: 108.601 versus 109.411.

Dollar melted on the week, failing at the 10 day EMA and tumbling.

It is ripe to rebound to test the 10 day EMA, but it is in a downtrend now and will hit the early September low. Then it tries to rebound some.

Source: Investment House
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