CAD (Canadian Loonie)

Re: CAD

Postby winston » Fri Jan 23, 2015 6:32 am

ANOTHER CURRENCY PLUMMETS IN VALUE

Today is another edition of our "bank accounts are more volatile than you think" series. This time, we're going to Canada.

Currencies like the U.S. dollar, Europe's euro, and Japan's yen trade on big financial exchanges just like stocks and commodities do.

Most folks don't realize just how volatile currencies can be... and how their global purchasing power is affected.

Over the past few years, we've run many charts that show currencies can be extremely volatile.

A great example of this is the recent plunge in the value of the Canadian dollar. The production of natural resources like oil makes up a big chunk of the Canadian economy. So, crude's recent plunge has hit the Canadian economy.

You can see this hit in the three-year chart below. The Canadian dollar is in a big downtrend. Since July, it has plunged 12%. Most folks don't realize it, but currencies can be extremely volatile.

Source: www.dailywealth.com
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Re: CAD

Postby winston » Mon Jul 27, 2015 7:23 am

It Ain’t Crazy to Buy the Loonie

by Karim Rahemtulla

http://www.investmentu.com/article/deta ... bVrt9Kqqko
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Re: CAD

Postby winston » Thu Aug 13, 2015 8:03 pm

The World's Most Hated Major Currency Hits an 11-Year Low By Dr. Steve Sjuggerud

Crashing oil prices, crashing commodity prices, and a super-strong U.S. dollar – these three have been the trifecta of pain for the Canadian dollar in recent years.

All three of these together have pushed the Canadian dollar to an 11-year low.

In today's essay, I'll show you why the Canadian dollar could bottom out soon and start a solid rally…

Right now, "real money" traders have a massive bet AGAINST the Canadian dollar. We can see by looking at the Commitment of Traders (COT) report – which tracks the "real money" bets of futures traders.

Today, the COT shows traders are uniformly betting against the Canadian dollar.

This is a great contrarian sign… It shows that everyone who wants to sell the Canadian dollar has already sold. There's nobody left to sell.

You see, "real money" traders have only had a significantly larger bet than today's one time in the past – in early 2007. The Canadian dollar absolutely soared right after that – from $0.85 to $1.08 in about eight months. That's a 27% move – a huge move in a currency!

Today, sentiment on the Canadian dollar is at the worst level in history (according to Jason Goepfert of SentimenTrader.com, whose data go back a few decades). That also tells me the bottom should be near…

So what's going on… and when could the rally in the Canadian dollar start?

The Canadian dollar is known as a "commodity currency." Its currency tends to rise and fall with commodity prices. The problem is, everywhere you look, commodities are crashing…

The Bloomberg Commodity Index, which currently tracks futures prices for 20 commodities, is down 62% since peaking in July 2008.

Take a look at the chart below. It shows the Canadian dollar versus commodity prices over the past 15 years…

You can see that the Canadian dollar crashed the last two times commodity prices peaked and began a bear market. It fell 22% from July 2008 to March 2009. And since peaking in mid-2011, the Canadian dollar is down 27%… a huge decline for any major currency.

Canada's currency can bottom out here, simply because there's nobody left to sell… However, the legitimate bottom will happen when commodity prices finally bottom.

Since commodity prices have continued lower, the Canadian dollar has continued lower. In short, we don't have an uptrend in the Canadian dollar – yet. So I'm not buying today… but the Canadian dollar will be a fantastic opportunity when commodities rebound.

The best way to take advantage of it now is to get yourself up to beautiful Vancouver – my favorite city in the world – this month. I was just there for more than a week and I can confirm that – except for real estate – prices in U.S. dollar terms were CHEAP!

So take advantage by visiting Canada while its currency is at a record low… Then buy the Canadian dollar when the uptrend finally appears…

Source: Daily Wealth
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Re: CAD (Canadian Loonie)

Postby winston » Thu Sep 24, 2015 8:27 pm

Big Canadian dollar fund FXC drops to a new all-time low.
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Re: CAD (Canadian Loonie)

Postby winston » Sat Dec 12, 2015 7:41 am

Canada’s dollar hit an 11-year low against the U.S. dollar this week.
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Re: CAD (Canadian Loonie)

Postby winston » Wed Jan 06, 2016 9:19 pm

Canadian dollar fund FXC drops to a new 52-week low.
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Re: CAD (Canadian Loonie)

Postby winston » Wed Feb 17, 2016 9:10 pm

not vested

THIS FOREIGN CURRENCY IS DOWN BIG

Today's chart highlights the long-term downtrend in the Canadian dollar...

Canada is rich with natural resources like oil, natural gas, copper, gold, and uranium. In fact, natural resources account for almost 20% of its GDP.

The sale of oil and gas is by far the largest source of Canada's natural resource revenue.

As you might expect, that's a major problem right now. Over the past year, crude oil prices are down 45%, while natural gas has dropped 30%.

On top of that, Canada is also hurting right now in other areas. Canadian banks (which have funded drilling and exploration operations) have struggled.

The Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CIBC) – one of the largest banks in Canada – recently downgraded its 2016 economic outlook for the country. The real estate sector is down, too. With a sluggish economy, folks have less money to spend on homes.

All of this has put downward pressure on the Canadian dollar. While Canada's currency has risen slightly over the past month, it's still down big over the long term.

Over the past three years, the Canadian dollar has weakened nearly 40% against the U.S. dollar, as you can see below. It was at parity in 2013, but just three years later, it takes 1.39 Canadian dollars to buy one U.S. dollar. That's a huge, bearish move for a major currency...

Source: Daily Wealth
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Re: CAD (Canadian Loonie)

Postby winston » Thu May 05, 2016 8:15 pm

Look Out, Loonie, Canada May Have Just Peaked

TD warns of the nation’s economy passing “a point of peak optimism.” Can the currency be far behind?

by Luke Kawa

Source: Bloomberg

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... ust-peaked
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Re: CAD (Canadian Loonie)

Postby winston » Wed Jul 13, 2016 8:12 am

The Loonie Takes Flight

By Karim Rahemtulla

This past weekend, I enjoyed lunch with the Canadian high commissioner to India and his lovely wife. We discussed various topics, including the resurgence of Canada as a destination for capital for the rest of the world.

In the aftermath of Brexit, and even in the days leading up to it, there was a surge of social media and search activity surrounding "moving to Canada" by those domiciled in Britain.

Americans have been conducting similar searches over the last few months...

For the most part, people merely fantasize about such things. Relocating to a different country is not easy and sometimes immigration rules make it tedious or even impossible. But Canada is a place that has familiarity and is much closer than far-flung destinations like Australia or New Zealand.

Most major English-speaking Canadian cities are a short flight away from major American population centers. Toronto is a 2 1/2-hour flight from Miami and Vancouver is about the same from Los Angeles.

Even driving up to Canada is pretty easy. The longest I've ever spent going through customs and immigration by car is about an hour. On most occasions it's taken less than 15 minutes.

Canada has even more to offer in terms of familiarity. English is the dominant language. Just about every U.S. chain store can be found there. The food is similar. Healthcare is modern and accessible and even cheap for residents, thanks to a universal healthcare system. And now, thanks to a strong U.S. dollar, Canada is also a fairly inexpensive destination for Americans.

Canada's appeal has not gone unnoticed. In my conversations with the high commissioner, he mentioned that applications for education visas from India, where he is based, have soared. Business ties are improving as the giant Asian country looks to the West for growth and investment and begins to shift away from the East.

India is not alone. The Chinese have been moving to Canada in droves, one of the reasons for the sky-high prices for real estate in Vancouver and now also in Toronto.

All of these trends point to a very good economic future for Canada and also for the Canadian dollar, or "loonie," as it is fondly called. From its 2011 high to its low earlier this year, the loonie has tumbled 36% against the U.S. dollar.

The loonie's crash has mirrored the collapse of commodity prices. But when it comes to currency, the world seems to think of Canada the same way it did in decades past.

It's true that Canada is a major commodities exporter. But a closer look at the country's exports shows that resources no longer dominate the picture, making up less than 20% of the country's GDP. For proof, you need to look no further than the oil price collapse.

If Canada was truly dependent on oil and commodities, then its economy would have tanked when oil prices crashed. The crash in other commodities like nickel, gold, silver, lumber, uranium, potash and a host of others would have sent the country plummeting into depression.

Yet none of that happened. In fact, over the past five years, Canada's economy has continued to grow. That's a testament to the diversification of the economy.

The Loonie Falls From the Sky

So it seems to me that the loonie is much cheaper than it ought to be. So I think it's a currency you should be accumulating if you are looking to diversify out of politically sensitive and economically vulnerable currencies.

The Canadian dollar looks to have established a trading range that should keep it between $0.68 and $0.77. Look to dips to buy the loonie as a bet on the long-term flow of foreign capital, qualified immigrants and a rebound in commodity prices.

One easy way to gain exposure to the Canadian dollar is to buy the CurrencyShares Canadian Dollar Trust ETF (NYSE: FXC). This ETF tracks the Canadian dollar's value against the U.S. dollar.

Now that the loonie has finally taken flight from its bear market lows, I expect it to continue moving much higher over the next couple of years.

Source: The Non-Dollar Report
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Re: CAD (Canadian Loonie)

Postby winston » Sun Aug 07, 2016 12:17 pm

Canada Dollar Tumbles as Nation Loses Most Jobs Since November

by Michael Yang

The Canadian dollar tumbled the most since June after a report showed the nation’s labor market unexpectedly contracted last month.

The currency fell as the number of employed people in Canada declined by 31,200 in July, the most since November, after posting an unexpected loss of 700 the month prior, according to data released by Statistics Canada. A Bloomberg survey of economists forecast 10,000 new hires for the month.

Meanwhile, data out of the U.S. showed better-than-expected job creation, renewing expectations that the Fed may tighten monetary policy this year.

The loonie, as the Canadian dollar is nicknamed, fell 1.1 percent to $1.3169 against the greenback as of 8:53 a.m. in Toronto. The Canadian dollar is still the second-best performing currency behind the Japanese yen among its Group-of-10 peers this year.

In a separate report, Statistics Canada said the nation’s trade deficit hit records in the second quarter including a C$3.6 billion ($2.7 billion) gap in the month of June.

"The labor market took another hit and the trade deficit is probably one of the worst on record," said Bipan Rai, senior foreign-exchange and macro strategist at Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce in Toronto. "Combined with the positive jobs surprise out of the U.S., this will weigh heavily on the Canadian dollar."

Hedge funds and other large speculators were caught wrong-footed after raising their net bullish position on the Canadian dollar to 23,180 contracts as of July 26, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, near the highest since 2013.

Source: Bloomberg
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