HKD

Re: HKD

Postby winston » Mon Jan 18, 2016 7:24 am

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Some betting on end to HK-US dollar link

by Andrew Wong Wai-hong

The Hong Kong dollar had its biggest drop in 10 years last week, amid talk the market is betting on an end to the US dollar link.

After surviving the Asian financial crisis, SARS and the financial tsunami, will the link still end in an environment during which the yuan is fluctuating with China's economy not promising?

If that happens, it must have something to do with the yuan. But another more likely possibility is that the Hong Kong dollar is to some extent equivalent to the US dollar.

So at times when there is a flight to the US dollar as a safe haven, demand for Hong Kong dollars will naturally increase.

Such a situation appeared from August to September due to China's stock volatility.

The market even bet the yuan would be devalued, so at the end of the third quarter and beginning of the fourth, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority intervened more often, even if the "flow" of those funds did not stimulate Hong Kong dollar assets.

But with the People's Bank of China intervening, the market believes there is limited space for the yuan to weaken, and coupled with US interest rates rising, some of the money is flying out.

In the short term, the US dollar may peak and that may require some investors to unwind and buy yen and euro.

But there is certainly a minority betting on the end of the currency link, so even if the US dollar rises to HK$7.85 in the short term and the HKMA intervenes, it doesn't mean the SAR dollar will be hit.

The impact it can have on the financial market in Hong Kong is very limited.

Source: The Standard
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Re: HKD

Postby winston » Mon Jan 18, 2016 2:37 pm

<Research Report>G Sachs Expects HKD to Weaken; Capital Outflows May Reach $300B

Goldman Sachs, in its report, stated that the market has been worried about the yuan's trend recently while HKD has weakened.

The broker has noted that HKD's 1-year forward rate has dropped from 7.76 to 7.83.

HKD may even decline to 7.85, leading to the weak-side Convertibility Undertakings and it is estimated that the capital outflows may even reach $300 billion (depends on Hong Kong Monetary Authority's operations).

Source: AAStocks Financial News
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Re: HKD

Postby winston » Tue Jan 19, 2016 7:53 am

How To Make Money From The Hong Kong Dollar's Peg Hysteria

Summary

Many investors believe the Hong Kong Monetary Authority will abandon its peg of the Hong Kong dollar to the U.S. counterpart.

Due to the substantial benefits to Hong Kong from the peg, it is unlikely that this will actually happen.

This creates an investment opportunity for those willing to go against the tide.

Source: Seeking Aplpha

http://seekingalpha.com/article/3816336 ... g-hysteria
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Re: HKD

Postby winston » Tue Jan 19, 2016 8:54 am

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Hong Kong Dollar: This Is Keeping Investors Up at Night

Hong Kong DollarThe Hong Kong Dollar Could Break the Market

Source: Profit Confidential


http://www.profitconfidential.com/forex ... -at-night/
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Re: HKD

Postby winston » Sat Feb 06, 2016 5:32 pm

by behappyalways

Much Has Changed Since Short Sellers Last Attacked HK Dollar

Source: Caixin

http://english.caixin.com/2016-02-05/100907800.html
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Re: HKD

Postby winston » Sat Feb 06, 2016 5:32 pm

by behappyalways

Much Has Changed Since Short Sellers Last Attacked HK Dollar

Source: Caixin

http://english.caixin.com/2016-02-05/100907800.html
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Re: HKD

Postby behappyalways » Tue Sep 27, 2016 6:39 pm

技工北上返港「大牛」驚變偽鈔
http://hk.apple.nextmedia.com/news/art/ ... 1474784827
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Re: HKD

Postby winston » Thu Dec 22, 2016 8:11 am

The US dollar peg has served Hong Kong well for 34 years

The peg protects us from a much worse fate in the whirlpool of volatility

The dollar must by now be so overbought, who is left to buy to push the price up?

Of course, it is possible for the dollar to surprise in 2018 or 2020 by breaking upwards through the line.

A major black swan event could be the catalyst: the break-up of the Euro, the crash of the Chinese economy, a bond market meltdown, or a nuclear warhead going off in the wrong place.


Source: USD

http://www.scmp.com/business/article/20 ... l-34-years
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Re: HKD

Postby winston » Sun Apr 09, 2017 7:07 am

To peg or not to peg? That is the question for the Hong Hong dollar

The city’s currency has been loyally linked to the US dollar for 34 years – but again that’s being questioned. Could the renminbi now become a more likely new partner?

For 34 years, the Hong Kong dollar has been pegged to its counterpart in the United States at around HK$7.8, with a current trading band of HK$7.75-7.85.


In 2012, former HKMA chief executive Joseph Yam, a pivotal figure in its creation and defence, suggested a switch to a more flexible currency regime similar to that of Singapore, arguing the US and Hong Kong are too economically different for a peg system.


The renminbi is considered the most likely currency to constitute a hypothetical new peg, or at least be part of a trade-weighted group of currencies.


Source: SCMP

http://www.scmp.com/business/global-eco ... ong-dollar
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Re: HKD

Postby winston » Tue May 02, 2017 8:04 am

When the Hong Kong dollar weakens too much, bad things tend to happen

Interventions by the HKMA to defend the currency peg during a period of weakness for the Hong Kong dollar were accompanied by a sell-off in local stocks

The Hong Kong dollar is trading at a 14-month low against the US dollar, a threshold that in the past has led to capital outflows that wound up hitting the stock and property markets.


Since 2009, the HKMA has intervened many times to prevent the currency from becoming too strong due to US monetary easing. An estimated US$237 billion in net capital inflows have entered Hong Kong since 2005, according to Daiwa.


HKMA chief executive Norman Chan has warned the city is facing up to US$130 billion of capital outflows due to expected US interest rate rises in the coming year.


Source: SCMP

http://www.scmp.com/business/companies/ ... hings-tend
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