USD 06 (Nov 15 - Dec 25)

[winston]

This is where the dollar could be headed

by Daryl Guppy

It's too early to know which direction the dollar index will break.

A breakout on the downside also has the potential to move quickly with an initial downside target near $0.89.

Currently traders are ready to go short as the index reacts away from the downtrend line with a move to retest support near $0.93.

Source: CNBC

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/05/25/this-is- ... yptr=yahoo

[winston]

Here’s proof that the US dollar is insanely overvalued

By Simon Black

Source: Sovereign Man

http://www.thetradingreport.com/2016/06 ... vervalued/

[winston]

Why Dollar Weakness Is Temporary Despite Epic Jobs Miss

By Shuli Ren

Source: Barron's Asia

http://blogs.barrons.com/asiastocks/201 ... jobs-miss/

[winston]

The dollar .DXY fell to a five-week low against a basket of currencies as traders reduced bets of an imminent U.S. interest rate increase.

[winston]

US dollar clout brings own risk

Global financial markets are being distorted by the loose monetary policies of central banks.

That is because as central banks and investors rush to buy bonds, it causes a lot of debt interest rates to fall to record lows, even negative levels.

Due to reductions in bond returns, some high-yield stocks were sought, causing markets to rebound last month.

One problem with that is markets are again looking for economic improvements.

And whether the US Federal Reserve is to raise rates this year has again became the market focus.

Lessons from the past teach us that - if the future of Europe lacks promise, confidence in China's economy is lacking, whether Japan has enough money to stage an economic recovery is still unknown - raising rates would only make the US dollar strong, which will again create global liquidity imbalances.

Therefore, the chance of a US rate hike is not high for this year.

Of course, whether the dollar is too strong or not should not just be the responsibility of the Fed.

The Bank of Japan on Friday disappointed the market.

So, with the Bank of England deciding last month to keep rates at the existing level and the European Central Bank not taking any action in the short term, what is going to happen?

The most ideal situation is one where the monetary policies can solve all economic problems. At the same time, the bond market continues to be weak amid excessive liquidity, causing stocks to rise in the second half.

But is it true a healthy economy can help stock markets around the world? Moreover, by keeping dollar gains in the forex market under control, will the flow of global capital be balanced?

If the European Union problem of the past few weeks is enough to get the euro facing a lot of downward pressure in the next six months, then no doubt this equivalent will drive the dollar up further, which also will be a big risk in financial markets.

Source: Andrew Wong Wai-hong, The Standard

[winston]

Morgan Stanley warns worst to come for US dollar

NEW YORK: The dollar is set to fall 5% in the next few months, the Federal Reserve isn’t raising interest rates anytime soon and US economic data is only going to get worse.

That’s what Morgan Stanley chief global currency strategist Hans Redeker told clients in a note published last Thursday, citing in-house indicators showing US domestic demand is set to fade in the coming months.

It didn’t take long for markets to prove him prescient.

Derivatives traders are now betting there’s only about a 1–in–3 chance of a rate hike this year, down from more than 50% at the beginning of the week.

Source: Bloomberg

http://www.thestar.com.my/business/busi ... us-dollar/

[winston]

A breakdown in the U.S. dollar may soon be confirmed

by Chris Kimble

Source: Kimble Charting Solutions

http://thecrux.com/has-the-u-s-dollar-r ... -may-have/

[winston]

JPMorgan FX strategist Sally Auld says the dollar could fall more if ECB, BOJ ease less

by Leslie Shaffer

Auld noted that while JPMorgan's economists expected both the BOJ and the European Central Bank would ease at their policy meetings next month, both central bank decisions posed market risks.

"The risks around the calls are not that we're going to get more easing than our economists expect, but that we might actually get less," she said, noting that some central banks may have begun to indicate that unconventional policy measures were nearing the end of the line.

Rather than shorting the dollar ahead of the Jackson Hole conference, Auld tipped selling the Swiss franc against the greenback.

Source: CNBC

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/08/23/jpmorgan ... yptr=yahoo

[winston]

Barack Obama may have finally destroyed America’s #1 advantage

By Simon Black

Source: Sovereign Man

http://www.thetradingreport.com/2016/08 ... advantage/

[winston]

The dollar is on a course to go lower, despite all the trends that say it should be going higher

Consider these dollar-friendly factors:

1. U.S. interest rates are among the highest in the world. Even basket cases like Spain and Italy have government bonds that yield less than comparable U.S. Treasurys! At today's quotes, for example, a 10-year U.S. Treasury yields 1.59%, while a 10-year Italian government bond yields only 1.16%.

2. The U.S. economy is humming compared to almost every other major economy.

3. The U.S. housing market is booming.

4. The unemployment rate is down to a nine-year low below 5%.

5. The stock market is near all-time highs.

This is a dream scenario for a country, especially when you realize that most other economies are barely showing signs of positive growth. And yet, the greenback just doesn't want to move higher.

Source: The Non-Dollar Report