USD 06 (Nov 15 - Dec 25)

[winston]

The Dying Petrodollar And What It Means To The U.S.

By Brandon Smith

Source: SHTFplan.com

http://www.thetradingreport.com/2016/04 ... o-the-u-s/

[winston]

The Fed just ‘trashed the dollar’ to help out China

by Jim Rickards

Source: Currency Wars Alert

http://thecrux.com/jim-rickards-an-upda ... ency-wars/

[winston]

The Most Vulnerable-Looking Chart in the Market

By Jeff Clark

The U.S. dollar is on life support.

The buck sold off hard last week when the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced it would leave interest rates unchanged.

After that decision, the Bank of Japan also left rates alone... which surprised a market that was expecting lower interest rates. As a result, the yen rallied and the dollar fell further.

And we're now sitting at a key point for the U.S. dollar. The next few weeks could tell us a lot about its long-term future...

The U.S. Dollar Index ended last week down 1.6%... and sitting right on a critical support line. Take a look at this one-year chart...

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At around 92.60, the U.S. Dollar Index is trading at its lowest level of the year. And it's testing the support line connecting the lows from last May and last August.

The index is now about 3% below its 50-day moving average (DMA) line. That's about as far as the dollar usually strays from its 50-DMA before reversing back toward the line. So traders ought to be looking for a short-term bounce in the dollar to get started soon.

But the longer-term picture is ominous...

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This is one of the most vulnerable-looking charts in the market.

If the dollar index can't bounce off the 93 level – or if the bounce is weak and the index rolls back over – the buck will head toward the next support line, which is down around 88.

That's less than a 6% drop from Friday's closing price, which wouldn't be a big deal if we were talking about a stock. But a 6% move in a currency is huge.

That sort of a move would send the prices of precious metals and other commodities much higher. In fact, it is likely the expected breakdown in this U.S. Dollar Index chart that has prompted buying in gold, silver, oil, and agricultural commodities over the past few weeks.

Now, though, the buck looks poised for a short-term bounce off its support line and back up toward its 50-DMA. If that happens, commodity prices are likely to give back some of their recent short-term gains.

But keep an eye on the U.S. Dollar Index chart over the next few weeks.

Once any short-term bounce ends – or once the chart breaks decisively below the 93 level – it looks like the buck will be headed much lower.

Source: Growth Stock Wire

[winston]

One of the world’s most important trends just broke down…

by Justin Dove

Source: The Crux

http://thecrux.com/one-of-the-worlds-mo ... roke-down/

[winston]

US dollar hits 16-month low—how much lower can it go?

by Katy Barnato

Source: CNBC.com

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/05/03/us-dolla ... 284a1255a1

[winston]

Get your affairs in order because this rare technical signal is flashing red

The U.S. dollar, which has been under pressure since late last year, is coming off its best week of the 2016.

While it wasn’t exactly a huge move, it was enough to deliver a hit to currency traders, who had started the week loaded up on short positions to a degree not seen in almost two years.

“Something happened Friday that’s happened only twice in over 20 years on the $SPX: The weekly 100MA has crossed over the weekly 50MA,” the blogger said. “The last two times this happened carnage followed.”

Source: Market Watch

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/get-yo ... 2016-05-09

[winston]

Goldman Sachs: The dollar has bottomed

GS's Brooks estimates that the dollar will advance 15 percent during the next two years as U.S. monetary policy normalizes

This isn’t the first time Goldman Sachs has reiterated its dollar-bullish stance in recent months, a view that hasn’t always panned out.

The bank closed a dollar position against a equally weighted basket of euro and yen in February, one of its top trade recommendations for 2016, with a potential loss of about 5 percent.

Source: Bloomberg

http://thecrux.com/goldman-sachs-calls- ... -subsides/

[winston]

Why being the king of currencies has its pitfalls

BY MIKE DOLAN

The Bank for International Settlements estimates that while U.S. dollar dominance means it accounts for almost 90 percent of all foreign exchange transactions and some 60 percent of hard currency reserves.

But crucially it also accounts for about 60 percent of all debts and assets outside the United States.

And if the rest of the world goes into shock because of the higher cost of servicing and paying back those dollar debts, the boomerang effect on U.S. exporters, commodity firms and the wider economy ..

Source: Reuters

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-globa ... r%20Update

[winston]

How to Profit from the Rising Dollar Right Now

You can profit from the dollar rally by investing in dollars and selling short Euros and Yen. The most direct way you can do this is through three ETFs.

You can buy ProShares DB US Dollar Bullish ETF (UUP), which closely tracks the exposures in the DXY. This ETF rises when the dollar rises.

You can buy the Euro by buying ProShares Short Euro ETF (EUFX). This ETF rises when the Euro falls.

And you can sell short the Guggenheim Currency Shares Japanese Yen Trust ETF (FXY). Your short position will rise in value as the Yen weakens.

Source: Sure Money

http://suremoneyinvestor.com/opportunit ... hoo.com.sg

[winston]

Dollar is undervalued

Goldman continues to see 2 Fed rate hikes this year and 3 more in 2017, while Japan and Europe continue their easing policies.

“Speculative dollar positioning has come down even more sharply, leading our FX team to argue the dollar is near a bottom… and we think JPY/USD will in particular weaken in the coming months.”

Source: Barron's Asia