USD 07 (Apr 23 - Dec 27)

[winston]

Dedollarization?

The US dollar still accounts for approximately 88% of all trades in the $7.5 trillion-per-day foreign exchange market, with the greenback’s share in global foreign exchange reserves dipping below 60% lately.

BRICS members control north of 40% of central bank reserves globally, account for approximately 25% of global oil demand, and have been increasingly interdependent in commodity trading as sanctions pushed Russian flows to India.

Source: Oil Price

[behappyalways]

The United States may face a debt ceiling crisis.
Will Trump abandon the weak dollar policy?
How long can the Japanese yen stay cheap as the U.S. dollar continues to strengthen?

美國恐面臨債務上限危機 川普放棄弱勢美元政策？美元持續走強 日幣還可以便宜多久【Yahoo TV】

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=-AuDt9lwUJ0

[behappyalways]

Dollar's Share Of Global Reserves Hits 30-Year-Low As Central Banks Pile Into Gold, Alternates
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/dolla ... alternates

[behappyalways]

Strong dollar policy? Bessent’s two-handed strategy
Chen Fengxin provided three major pieces of evidence

強勢美元政策？貝森特的兩手策略 陳鳳馨提三大證據【Yahoo TV】

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=iD85_8B2N ... ACAQ%3D%3D

[behappyalways]

The strength of the dollar? Trump is playing fake!

25.02.26【豐富│東南西北龍鳳配】Pt.2 美元強弱？川普玩假動作！

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=STO-CYZ7z1E

[behappyalways]

"De-dollarization" is no longer a concept!

'25.03.19【豐富│東南西北龍鳳配】Pt.2「去美元化」已經不是概念！

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=hpnjeVWfCPE

[winston]

The Dollar Decline is About To Get Worse

by Brett Eversole

To the world, tariffs make the U.S. dollar look less stable and less appealing. So the dollar plunged as well.

According to this setup, we can expect the pain to continue… with even lower levels likely in the months ahead.

Source: DailyWealth.com

https://dailytradealert.com/2025/04/02/ ... get-worse/

[winston]

The world suddenly has a plausible alternative to US Treasuries

By Greg Ritchie, Michael Mackenzie & Mia Glass

In Germany, the 10-year bund at 2.61% reflects the prospect of a flood of bond issuance as the government ramps up defence spending.

Meanwhile, the rate on 10-year Japanese bonds has soared after spending years around zero and is now around 1.25%.

While both are still well below Treasury yields, they’re at levels that makes them look more attractive than Treasuries to European and Japanese investors who hedge their dollar exposure when buying US securities. That might entice investors to shift allocations to their home markets.

Deutsche Bank warns of a “confidence crisis” in the dollar, while UBS Group AG sees a shot in the arm to the euro’s status as a global reserve currency.

Investors are bracing for Europe to play a bigger role in global markets as competition for capital heats up.

One early test comes Tuesday, when the US government is set to sell US$58 billion (RM260.13 billion) of three-year securities, followed by 10- and 30-year maturities later this week.

Germany kicked off the shift in early March, when it announced plans to unlock hundreds of billions of euros for defense and infrastructure. Bund yields soared as investors priced in a flood of bond issuance to pay for the spending.

Source: Bloomberg

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/750651

[winston]

US dollar poised for worst 1st 100 days of presidency since Nixon

Worst performance during the first 100 days of a US presidency in data going back to the Nixon era, when America abandoned the gold standard and switched to a free-floating exchange rate.

Nixon shock of 1971 caused the US dollar to drop, effectively ending the Bretton Woods system of fixed exchange rates established after the end of the World War II.

The euro, Swiss franc and yen have risen more than 8 per cent each against the US dollar since Trump’s return to the presidency.

Bearish bets on the US currency worth about US$13.9 billion during the week ended Apr 22.

Source: Bloomberg

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/compan ... ency-nixon

[winston]

Central bank body BIS flags potential for dollar scramble

Possible scramble for dollars could be triggered if whipsawed investors begin to unwind positions in the US$113 trillion (HK$881.4 trillion) FX swap market amid U.S. volatility.

Funds and other non-bank financial firms had more than US$80 trillion in FX swaps - money borrowed in the U.S. currency with the promise to pay it back at an agreed exchange rate at a later date.

Effectively a form of short-term debt, swaps tend to be held 'off balance sheet' and are not to be factored in regulatory capital requirements.

The issues come if investors suddenly rush to unwind these positions.

Investors who have hedged positions are often holding euros or yen but still have the dollar repayment obligations.

If you have to roll over that swap you have to join the scramble (for dollars), that can then cause a rapid spike in the value of the U.S. currency.

Source: The Standard

https://www.thestandard.com.hk/market/article/302887/