USD 06 (Nov 15 - Dec 25)

[behappyalways]

Treasury nominee Janet Yellen to say U.S. does not seek weaker dollar: WSJ
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa- ... SKBN29M0O7

[winston]

The $1.9 Trillion Stimulus is Kicking Off a Dollar Rally

by Dr. Steve Sjuggerud

Futures traders haven’t been this bearish on the dollar in a decade. And as you can see, bottoms in the COT tend to line up with bottoms in the dollar.

Now, we have extremely negative sentiment combined with a slight reversal in the dollar. History tells us this could be the beginning of a major move higher.

If you have a global view and Europe charges you to hold cash, then earning 1.65% in the U.S. doesn’t sound so bad.

Source: DailyWealth.com

https://dailytradealert.com/2021/04/09/ ... lar-rally/

[winston]

Coronavirus recovery: why US dollar’s puzzling strength is only temporary

Investors expecting the currency to fade have been flummoxed by a reinvigorated US economy and a reassertion of the theme of US exceptionalism

Renewed dollar depreciation will come eventually from the fading sugar rush of fiscal stimulus and as other countries’ vaccine programmes catch up

by Kerry Craig

But if the dollar is going to be a loser later this year, who will be the winner? The euro stands out, given the more cyclical nature of its equity market, which will benefit from the lift in global growth.

The weaker US dollar should translate into stronger emerging-market currencies over time. Emerging markets are a net beneficiary of a more synchronised global recovery, particularly one where international travel is freely allowed. Furthermore, stability in commodity prices should add to the outlook for commodity exporters.

Source: SCMP

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/ar ... ength-only

[behappyalways]

Russia's $186 Billion Sovereign Wealth Fund Dumps All Dollar Assets
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/russi ... lar-assets

[winston]

Why the US dollar will remain on the comeback trail for many months

While the dollar outlook has been cloudy in the recent years, it is fighting back, thanks to tougher interest rate tightening expected from the Fed and a brighter political climate under US President Joe Biden

by David Brown

Source: SCMP

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/ar ... any-months

[winston]

A Dollar Rally is Coming. Make Sure You’re Prepared.

by Dr. Steve Sjuggerud

The general consensus would be to bet against the dollar when we have an oversupply of dollars flooding the markets.

But given that everyone is thinking this way, a rally is likely.

Source: DailyWealth.com

https://dailytradealert.com/2021/07/21/ ... -prepared/

[winston]

How to Profit From the Dollar’s Next Move

by Ben Morris and Drew McConnell

If the dollar rally continues, it would be a headwind for commodities. We could see prices fall for everything from precious metals and copper to grains and energy.

It would also add to the worries about big U.S. businesses, which will have a harder time finding buyers for goods and services overseas…

For foreign stocks, though, a strong dollar is a supporting tailwind.

In a “stronger dollar” scenario, it’s a good idea to look for trading opportunities in small-cap stocks and in non-U.S. markets.

Source: DailyWealth.com

https://dailytradealert.com/2021/10/12/ ... next-move/

[winston]

Falling Out of Love with the USD?

While there is certainly no let-up in Fed policy normalisation, we attributed the USD decline this week to omicron posing less of a threat to recovery momentum;

RMB relatively more resilient, helping to anchor AXJs;

Fed is not the only central bank tightening and DXY-long positions is already pricing in aggressive Fed tightening and in absence of fresh catalyst, there is little room for USD to rise.

That said Mar Fed hike remains a risk.

Source: Maybank

https://mkefactsettd.maybank-ke.com/PDFS/247907.pdf

[winston]

Reaction to Russia-Ukraine War to Weaken US Dollar (and hasten China’s ascent to global power)

by Shah Gilani

Last year, this system averaged 42.5 million messages sent per day.

40% of all global monetary transactions involving US dollars (USD) instigated through SWIFT are routed through the New York Clearinghouse Interbank Payment System (CHIPS).

The primary fear of hammering Russia with such a blunt instrument is, with the ruble decimated, Russia could default on interest and principal payments on its sovereign debt.

Even if Russia doesn’t default on its sovereign obligations, impeding payment of tens-of-billions-of-dollars Russian companies owe global entities, including financial institutions and trading houses, could trigger any number of Lehman moments that cascade through global markets and impact economies.

Russia could use CIP for its international payments, and use its more than $120 billion in gold reserves as collateral against yuan swaps with China, which could then be swapped into dollars and used for dollar-denominated payments globally.

Source: Total Wealth

https://dailytradealert.com/2022/03/06/ ... bal-power/

[behappyalways]

Petrodollar Cracks: Saudi Arabia Considers Accepting Yuan For Chinese Oil Sales
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/petro ... -oil-sales