MYR (Malaysian Ringgit)

Re: MYR (Malaysian Ringgit)

Postby winston » Tue Oct 15, 2019 3:23 pm

Affin Hwang revises ringgit forecast to RM4.20 versus US dollar

by Cameron Chong

KUALA LUMPUR (Oct 15): Affin Hwang Investment Bank Bhd revised its ringgit forecast to RM4.20 against the US dollar by end-2020 from RM4.10 previously, in anticipation the US will not cut interest rates aggressively and amid US-China trade war uncertainty.

According to Affin Hwang's note today, anticipation of aggressive easing by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) did not materialise as the central bank has only cut its federal funds rate by a total of 50 basis points this year to the 1.75% to 2.00% range. It said the Fed's interest rate decision has supported the strength of the US dollar.

"In addition, the US Fed did not guide that there will be quantitative easing despite intervention in the repo market.

We also expect the ringgit to be weighed down by ongoing trade uncertainty, especially if trade tensions escalate.

"So far, the Chinese yuan has depreciated by 3.3% YTD and this may also contribute to the softer ringgit. Although Malaysia was retained in the FTSE Russell's World Government Bond Index, its position remains in the watch list, which reflects some lingering uncertainty about Malaysia's position in the upcoming interim review in March 2020," Affin Hwang said.

Source: The Edge

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/ ... -us-dollar
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 118537
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Re: MYR (Malaysian Ringgit)

Postby winston » Mon Dec 30, 2019 3:10 pm

Ringgit to float around 4.18 during 2020 and end at 4.20, says MIDF

by Wong Swee May

KUALA LUMPUR (Dec 30): MIDF Amanah Investment Bank Bhd Research said it expects the ringgit to float around 4.18 during 2020 and end at 4.20.

In its Weekly Money Review note today, the research house said the ringgit improved further as global trade sees positive development as US and China are expected to sign the phase one deal very soon.

"Following that, commodity prices like Brent oil and crude palm oil surged above US$65 (RM267.47) per barrel and RM3,000 per metric tonne last week," it added.

It said trade tension, geopolitical instability, policy and political uncertainties, loosening monetary policy, volatility in commodities prices remain as key factors affecting growth trajectory.

"Global economy in 2020 is expected to continue in moderation due to trade war tension, political instability in developed economies and volatility in commodity prices," the research house said.

MIDF Research said it expects the US Federal Reserve to announce two rate cuts next year amid gross domestic product moderation.

It also said developed and emerging economies are predicted to follow similar steps in loosening monetary policy to boost economic growth.

Malaysia's economy is predicted to grow by 4.5% in 2020, slightly lower than this year's 4.6%.

Inflationary pressure is set to rise at 2.4% in 2020 due to the floating fuel price mechanism. Transport price covers about 15% of CPI basket and its spillover effects would cause other goods' prices to increase, it said.

The research house said the rebound in investments side, steady domestic spending and recovery in commodity-based sectors are expected to drive the Malaysian economy.

"We expect Bank Negara Malaysia to slash further OPR by 25 basis points in 2020, possibly the earliest in the first quarter of 2020," it said.

Meanwhile, Bloomberg reported that ringgit climbed to a five-month high in muted year-end trading as the US dollar's weakness persists amid broad risk-on sentiment.

The newswire reported that US$/ringgit fell 0.2% to 4.1175, the lowest since July 26, adding that the pair may head for July's low of 4.1038 after weekly close below trend line support which began off March's low.

"Support 4.1135; resistance 4.1680, 4.1943, 4.1993.

"Pair has dropped 1.6% this quarter, most since three months ended March 2018," it said.

Bloomberg also said global funds sold a net US$400,000 in local equities on Dec 26, taking year-to-date outflows to US$2.6 billion.

It said 10-year government bond yield dropped 1 basis point to 3.34% and fell 5 basis points last week.

Source: The Edge

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/ ... -says-midf
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 118537
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Re: MYR (Malaysian Ringgit)

Postby winston » Thu Jan 09, 2020 2:57 pm

Ringgit could reach 4.00 versus US dollar by year-end, says AmBank Research

by Surin Murugiah

KUALA LUMPUR (Jan 9): AmBank Group Research said the ringgit could reach 4.00 by the end of this year against the US dollar from 4.11 in the first quarter of 2020 (1Q2020).

In a thematic global markets report today, AmBank group chief economist and head of research Dr Anthony Dass said that despite external headwinds and domestic issues, the ringgit closed stronger in 2019, up 1.1% at 4.09 against the US dollar.

Dass, who is also adjunct professor in economics at University of New England, Sydney, Australia, said during the year, the ringgit traded on a wide range with a high and low of 4.06 and 4.22 respectively.

"For the full year of 2019, the ringgit averaged at 4.14 with the end period at 4.09.

"For the ringgit to strengthen against the US dollar in 2020, it will also depend on the yuan, given that these two pairs are closely correlated against the US dollar," he said.

Dass said during the year, the yuan traded on a wide range with a high and low of 6.69 and 7.18 respectively.

In 2019, the yuan averaged at 6.91 and ended the year at 6.96, he said.

Dass explained that a weaker US dollar, stronger yuan, favourable domestic macro fundamentals, firm oil prices plus benefitting positively from capital flows into this region, all point to a more favourable ringgit outlook.

"Still, a play on the ringgit will be driven by several events like FTSE Russell retaining Malaysia in the World Government Bond Index during its next half-yearly review in March 2020, global rating agencies, the US Federal Reserve ending the easing rate cycle thus providing room for Bank Negara Malaysia to institute one rate in the overnight policy rate, political transition and geopolitical tension.

"The ringgit could reach 4.00 by end of the year against the US dollar from 4.11 in 1Q2020. Conservatively, the ringgit could reach 4.18 by end 2020 from 4.11 in 1Q2020," he said.

Source: The Edge

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/ ... k-research
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 118537
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Re: MYR (Malaysian Ringgit)

Postby winston » Mon Jul 20, 2020 4:22 pm

Troubles Are Far From Over for One of Asia’s Worst Performing Currencies

By David Finnerty

Oil price support seen fading on OPEC+ output cuts tapering
Inflation data this week may provide cues on further rate cuts

The ringgit’s litany of woes doesn’t stop there. It’s is also weighed down by concerns that FTSE Russell may exclude the nation from its World Government Bond Index in September, after it was left on its watchlist over market accessibility issues.

Last year Goldman Sachs Group Inc. estimated that the exclusion could see $5 billion to $6 billion in outflows on a one-time basis.


Source: Bloomberg

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/arti ... g-stronger
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 118537
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Re: MYR (Malaysian Ringgit)

Postby behappyalways » Wed Jul 22, 2020 5:17 pm

八点最热报 21/07/2020 马币遭双重打击或难翻身 汇率稳定更重要?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ghoq6B-ZOMM
血要热 头脑要冷 骨头要硬
behappyalways
Millionaire Boss
 
Posts: 39929
Joined: Wed Oct 15, 2008 4:43 pm

Re: MYR (Malaysian Ringgit)

Postby winston » Mon Sep 07, 2020 1:56 pm

Malaysia’s currency faces two key risks after beating Asian peers

by David Finnerty

(Sept 7): The Malaysian ringgit has defied the odds to outperform most of its Asian peers. Now investors will be watching to see if it survives the trials of September.

A three-month rally in the currency could come to a halt when FTSE Russell announces a decision on whether it’ll retain ringgit bonds in its World Government Bond Index.

A lesser risk is also brewing in the form of an expected rate cut from Bank Negara Malaysia.

The ringgit’s surprising strength in the face of months of political turmoil has been a vote of confidence for Prime Minister Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin who is looking to revive spending to pull the economy out of its biggest slump since 1998.

If Malaysian bonds are removed from FTSE’s index, debt inflows could dry up, depriving the currency of a key source of support.

Like most of its Asian peers, the ringgit has benefited from a weak dollar and robust demand for higher-yielding debt. It has gained more than 3% since the start of July to outperform all but one of its Asian peers.

The ringgit bullishly breached resistance at its March high against the greenback, and may head toward 4.05 before year-end. The currency traded at 4.1475 on Friday.

But what happens from here would depend much on FTSE’s decision which is due Sept. 24. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said last year outflows could reach $6 billion should the nation be dropped.

“We continue to see a higher probability of status quo i.e. no change in classification and weights,” MUFG Bank Ltd. analysts led by Derek Halpenny wrote in a report last week, referring to the FTSE decision.

“This means that foreign investors may continue to buy Malaysian sovereign bonds, particularly as real yields remain the highest in the region albeit at a declining trend.”

Investors will also be watching Bank Negara Malaysia’s policy meeting on Thursday, with four of 14 economists in a Bloomberg survey expecting a 25-basis point cut. The remaining 10 see no change.

At its last review on July 7, the central bank said it would “continue to utilize its policy levers as appropriate” to support growth, fueling speculation of more easing.

Source: Bloomberg

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/node/530285
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 118537
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Re: MYR (Malaysian Ringgit)

Postby winston » Tue May 25, 2021 1:34 pm

Commodity rally to support ringgit

By GANESHWARAN KANA

While there are concerns on whether the rally in commodity prices could be sustained, experts largely believe that the prices would remain higher than the levels seen a year earlier.

The high commodity prices, along with the sustained current account surplus and positive interest rate differentials compared to the US, are expected to support the ringgit.

“At the moment, we maintain our view that the ringgit will strengthen towards RM3.95 per US dollar by the end of 2021”.

While the continued strong demand for our exports helps the ringgit, capital flows are still a dominant driver of the ringgit.

Persistent foreign selling of Malaysia-listed shares, the prolonged movement restrictions and their consequential impact on the economy as well as the political uncertainties will likely weigh on investor sentiment regarding the ringgit.


Source: The Star

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/bus ... e=smartech
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 118537
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Re: MYR (Malaysian Ringgit)

Postby winston » Fri May 28, 2021 7:38 am

Ringgit remarkably undervalued, says DBS Group Research

by Adam Aziz

“The interesting point about the ringgit is that it was historically very strong prior to the great oil crash, mainly because (the nation's) current account and fiscal position were mainly supported by oil prices.

“Markets may want to see further clarity on Malaysia’s fiscal position due to the risk that it might face a longer time period to bring its debt-to-GDP ratio to a comfortable level.

DBS sees the ringgit as among the most undervalued currencies versus other regional picks like Indonesian rupiah, the renminbi, Indian rupee and the Thai Baht.

DBS Research sees the ringgit weakening further to 4.20 against the greenback in 3Q21, before rebounding slightly to 4.18 in 4Q21 and to 4.10 at end 2022.

On the fiscal side, Malaysia has revised its deficit target to 6% of GDP for the year from 5.4% previously, taking into account its numerous stimulus packages.


Source: theedgemarkets.com

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/ ... p-research
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 118537
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Re: MYR (Malaysian Ringgit)

Postby winston » Sun Jun 20, 2021 8:36 pm

Ringgit seen to trade on downward bias next week

The most likely scenario would be that the ringgit will continue to be pressured to hit 4.1750 as a first target and 4.2200 as the final projection, over the next two to four months.

"Amid improving economic landscape in the US, the dollar is expected to strengthen further. With this in mind, the ringgit will likely trade between 4.13 and 4.15 to the dollar next week".


Source: Bernama

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/ ... -next-week
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 118537
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Re: MYR (Malaysian Ringgit)

Postby behappyalways » Sun Apr 24, 2022 10:04 am

令吉兑美元创2年新低 分析员:马币还会再跌 | 八点最热报 23/04/2022
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=q5CtyuFH8K4
血要热 头脑要冷 骨头要硬
behappyalways
Millionaire Boss
 
Posts: 39929
Joined: Wed Oct 15, 2008 4:43 pm

PreviousNext

Return to Currencies

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest