MYR (Malaysian Ringgit)

Re: MYR (Malaysian Ringgit)

Postby winston » Mon Jul 09, 2018 8:20 am

Threat to ringgit’s resilience

Morgan Stanley predicts the currency will weaken by year-end

KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysia’s ringgit was sheltered from the worst of last month’s emerging-market selloff, thanks to higher oil prices. It may be about to make up for lost time.

Traders will be hovering over the sell button after Wednesday’s policy meeting in case the central bank shows any sign of turning dovish due to the worsening US-China trade dispute and the new government’s decision to cut back on infrastructure spending to trim its debt burden.

Analysts predict economic growth will slow to 5.5% this year from 5.9%, while inflation will cool to 2.5% from 3.9%, giving new governor Datuk Nor Shamsiah Mohd Yunus plenty of reason to ease policy.

Although analysts predict Bank Negara will keep its benchmark unchanged at 3.25% this week, they have been trimming predictions for a future increase.

The market implied policy rate for one year’s time has declined to 3.28% from 3.41% in May, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Morgan Stanley predicts the ringgit will weaken to 4.28 per dollar by year-end due to expectations for a stronger dollar, concern about Malaysia’s debt burden and ongoing political uncertainties.

Barclays Plc says it will drop to 4.20 amid a possible deterioration in the nation’s finances after the scrapping of the goods and services tax. The currency was at 4.0373 last Friday.

Prime Minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad has made clear his preference for the ringgit’s direction, saying its fair value should be 3.8 per dollar. While it may eventually appreciate to that level, the short-term risks are for it to go the other way.

Source: Bloomberg

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/bus ... 83s4VsT.99
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Re: MYR (Malaysian Ringgit)

Postby winston » Tue Jul 10, 2018 2:50 pm

Ringgit to weaken to 4.1000 against USD by end-2018 — RHB

by Wong Ee Lin

KUALA LUMPUR (July 10): RHB Research Institute Sdn Bhd anticipates the ringgit to weaken to 4.1000 against the US dollar by end-2018, due to capital outflow.

In a note today, RHB economists Peck Boon Soon and Vincent Loo Yeong Hong, said RHB expects the US dollar to remain strong for the rest of the year, amid faster interest rate hike expectations in the US, and global trade uncertainties.

"Following a strong rally in 1Q18, the MYR in 2Q suffered the worst quarterly performance in almost two years. The recent weakness was mainly on the back of persistent USD strength, after the US Federal Reserve raised its dot plot interest rate guidance.

"In addition, foreign investors were adjusting their investment portfolio, following the conclusion of Malaysia’s general election," Peck and Loo said. At 11:21am today, the ringgit was traded at 4.0090 against the US dollar.

As RHB maintains its 2018 Malaysia gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast, the research firm also foresees downside risk to its 2019 GDP growth forecast for the country.

The economists said RHB is maintaining its real GDP growth forecast for Malaysia at 5.2% for 2018, albeit a slowdown from the 5.9% expansion in 2017, as a cut in public spending will likely be cushioned by higher consumer spending, due to the tax holiday.

"However, we are foreseeing a downside risk to our 2019’s real GDP growth forecast of 5%. The move to cut expenditure and review government projects' spending will likely impact construction and economic growth of the country, especially in 2019.

Still, we believe it is necessary for Malaysia to go through short-term pain for long-term gain, in order to improve the financial health of the public sector," they said.

Source: The Edge

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/r ... %80%94-rhb
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Re: MYR (Malaysian Ringgit)

Postby winston » Mon Jul 23, 2018 8:31 am

Ringgit likely to strengthen to 3.8 to US$1 by year-end

Affin Hwang Capital chief economist Alan Tan said the ringgit was expected to appreciate to RM3.80 against the US dollar given the country’s strong economic fundamentals and trading activities.


Source: The Star

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/bus ... 5cKGPrO.99
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Re: MYR (Malaysian Ringgit)

Postby winston » Sat Aug 04, 2018 8:26 am

Malaysia: Wider external surplus is positive for ringgit

by Prakash Sakpal

A continued widening in external trade and current account surpluses this year is positive for the Malaysian ringgit (MYR), but the persistent global trade uncertainty is negative.

The global trade war is driving our view of USD/MYR trading toward 4.35 by the end of the year. However, Malaysia’s positive external payments situation sustains the scope for the currency outperformance which imparts a downside risk to our end-year USD/MYR forecast (spot rate 4.08).

MYR-denominated exports rose by 7.6% year-on-year and imports by 14.9%. While these were slower than the consensus forecasts of 10.3% and 15.3% respectively, the pace was still faster than 3.4% for export growth and 0.1% for import growth in May.

In the exports category, the commodities cluster (crude petroleum, petroleum products, liquefied natural gas, and palm oil) slowed sharply to a 3.4% YoY fall from over 10% growth in May.

Acceleration in electronics exports led by the semiconductors, which was up 21% YoY from 13% in May, saved the day.

The wider trade surplus boosted the annual current account surplus to MYR 40bn in 2017 (3.0% of GDP) from MYR 30bn (2.4% of GDP) in the previous year. We forecast a further widening in the current surplus this year to about MYR 50bn (3.5% of GDP).


Source: ING

https://think.ing.com/articles/malaysia ... r-ringgit/
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Re: MYR (Malaysian Ringgit)

Postby winston » Thu Nov 08, 2018 5:18 am

Najib: Malaysia's languishing reserves means we can't pay back short-term loans

"My concern is on the 0.9 times the short-term foreign debts.

"For example, we owe a foreigner $100 but only have foreign currency of $90 to pay it back. This is a new risk for the country.


Source: The Star

https://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/ ... erm-loans/
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Re: MYR (Malaysian Ringgit)

Postby winston » Thu Nov 08, 2018 5:18 am

Najib: Malaysia's languishing reserves means we can't pay back short-term loans

"My concern is on the 0.9 times the short-term foreign debts.

"For example, we owe a foreigner $100 but only have foreign currency of $90 to pay it back. This is a new risk for the country.


Source: The Star

https://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/ ... erm-loans/
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