USD 06 (Nov 15 - Dec 18)

Re: USD 06 (Nov 15 - Dec 18)

Postby winston » Fri Jan 26, 2018 11:37 am

A simple way to hedge a big drop in the dollar

by Justin Spittler

DXY has been falling since late 2016. It’s now at a three-year low.

More importantly, it just broke a major support level. This level is a giant air pocket.

In other words, the dollar could go into free fall from here.


Source: Casey Daily Dispatch

http://thecrux.com/how-to-profit-from-t ... ollar-dip/
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Re: USD 06 (Nov 15 - Dec 18)

Postby winston » Sat Jan 27, 2018 11:17 am

A doomsayer’s guide to the dollar and why it could keep plunging

One silver lining may come from signals in the relative strength index.

The recent plunge suggests the dollar is more oversold than at any time in the past five years, implying that some of the downward momentum might slow, at least for now.

Source: Bloomberg

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/bus ... Qy1SYAQ.99
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Re: USD 06 (Nov 15 - Dec 18)

Postby winston » Sat Jan 27, 2018 4:57 pm

Why a Weaker Dollar Could End This Bull Market

By Randall W. Forsyth

Mutual fund flows were negative for U.S. equities in 2017 but positive for the rest of the world.

“Essentially, the U.S. has gone from being the source of the best investment opportunities, to merely being one of many great destinations for capital.

Tax reform will spur the reflow of some of the billions of dollars that U.S. corporations have parked overseas. The return of those prodigal dollars ought to be pushing the currency higher, but it hasn’t as yet.

$300 billion, which would equal about half of the capital inflows needed to cover the U.S. current account deficit. “

A weak U.S. dollar in a fully employed economy with rising inflation overtones combined with still very low bond yields and high P/E ratios is probably not a good cocktail for the financial markets?!?”


Source: Barron's Asia

https://www.barrons.com/articles/why-a- ... 1517021055
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Re: USD 06 (Nov 15 - Dec 18)

Postby winston » Wed Apr 04, 2018 1:29 pm

It's a very bearish situation for the US dollar

The U.S. dollar index could head toward a level near 85.

A weekly technical chart shows no strong support or consolidation between long-term historical support near 93 and 85.

The weekly chart shows there is no strong support or consolidation areas between long-term historical support near 93 and 85.

The sustained move below 91 could fall to 85. That's a historical support level, and it's the most significant feature of the dollar index chart.

Traders will short the dollar after any fall below the consolidation area near 88.5.


Source: CNBC

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/03/chart-a ... yptr=yahoo
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Re: USD 06 (Nov 15 - Dec 18)

Postby winston » Mon Apr 09, 2018 8:35 pm

Slumping US dollar no longer a one-way bet as volatility returns to currency markets

Nicholas Spiro says while the bears have reason to be confident, a confluence of factors points to a revival of the US dollar’s fortunes. The relative quiet in the currency markets may soon end

The dollar could also gain from the threat of a trade war between the US and China if, as Morgan Stanley believes, it results in an outcome that ends up lowering America’s hefty trade deficit.

Still, dollar bears have reasons to be confident. While the greenback is cheaper, it is still overvalued.


Source: SCMP

http://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opi ... ty-returns
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Re: USD 06 (Nov 15 - Dec 18)

Postby winston » Tue May 01, 2018 11:33 pm

Currency market’s bet against the US dollar is getting riskier by the day

Neal Kimberley warns that the currency market’s aggregate short position on the US dollar is looking vulnerable, with the euro zone performing worse than expected and the latest US data reflecting economic health

Data for the week ending April 24, released on Friday by the US’ Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), may have indicated “a sizeable reduction in the [International Monetary Market’s] aggregate bearish bet” on the greenback, but nevertheless still quantified the remaining aggregate US dollar short position at US$23.9 billion.


“If the recent [euro zone] data weakness turns out to be more protracted, we should expect the ECB to react by postponing the timetable they have forward guided. EURUSD could trade back down to 1.15 or so.”


The Swiss National Bank still views the franc as highly valued and will continue to pursue its ultra-accommodative monetary policy and remains willing to intervene in the foreign exchange market if necessary.


As for the British pound, as speculators discovered to their cost last week when Britain’s first-quarter gross domestic product data underwhelmed, betting on sterling’s strength remains a risky business.


With the Bank of Japan still sticking to its own ultra-accommodative monetary policies, and with higher US yields available, a number of Japan’s life insurers are now contemplating boosting their exposure to US dollar-denominated bonds on an unhedged currency basis.


With the attractiveness of other currencies arguably lessening and US monetary policy set to tighten further, the currency market feels short and caught with its aggregate bet against the US dollar.


Source: SCMP

http://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opi ... iskier-day
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Re: USD 06 (Nov 15 - Dec 18)

Postby winston » Wed May 16, 2018 9:42 pm

3 Things You Need to Know About the Soaring Dollar

by David Goodboy

1. Commodity Prices Are Correlated
2. Multi-Nationals Suffer From Dollar Strength
3. Financials And Consumer Stocks May Benefit


Source: Street Authority

http://dailytradealert.com/2018/05/16/3 ... ng-dollar/
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Re: USD 06 (Nov 15 - Dec 18)

Postby winston » Thu May 17, 2018 8:13 am

DOLLAR COLLAPSE COMING: EU To DITCH The US Dollar In Payments For Iranian Oil

Source: SHTFPLAN.COM

http://www.thetradingreport.com/2018/05 ... anian-oil/
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Re: USD 06 (Nov 15 - Dec 18)

Postby winston » Sat May 19, 2018 8:09 pm

Keep an Eye on the U.S. Dollar

by Ben Morris

After such a sharp drop last year, it’s not surprising to see the dollar stage a strong rally. But this price level is an obstacle that could end the rally.

A lot of investors and traders are now calling for a stronger dollar. But if it can’t break above these levels, it could fall all the way down to its early 2014 levels (around 80). That’s a huge drop that few are expecting.


Source: DailyWealth.com

http://dailytradealert.com/2018/05/19/k ... -s-dollar/
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Re: USD 06 (Nov 15 - Dec 18)

Postby winston » Wed Sep 12, 2018 4:13 pm

Jeffrey Gundlach Says Dollar’s Next Move May Be Downward

by John Gittelsohn, Emily Barrett

“I don’t think we’ll have new highs in the dollar without first seeing new moves to the downside,” Gundlach said in a webcast on Tuesday for his Total Return Bond Fund.

“We’ll probably end with the dollar lower at year-end than it is right now.”

Speculators on the long side may end up wrong, in part because President Donald Trump wants to see the greenback lower, the money manager said.


Source: Bloomberg

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jeffrey- ... 36666.html
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