Thai Beverage

Re: Thai Beverage

Postby kennynah » Wed Mar 07, 2012 1:56 am

Thai Beverages (1991) Company
Chang (beer brand)
57.96% Leader


Boon Rawd Brewery Company
Singha Leo (brand)
34.81% Challenger
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Re: Thai Beverage

Postby winston » Wed Jul 18, 2012 8:51 am

not vested

Thai Beverage PCL said on Wednesday it was in talks to buy stakes in beverage-to-property conglomerate Fraser and Neave and Asia Pacific Breweries from Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp .

Source: Reuters
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Re: Thai Beverage

Postby winston » Wed Aug 15, 2012 5:40 am

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Thai Beverage Q2 profit up 64%

Earnings per share for the quarter was 0.20 baht, up from 0.12 baht a year ago

Thai Beverage Public Company Limited on Tuesday posted a 64 per cent increase in year on year earnings to 5.09 billion baht (US$161.75 million) for the fiscal second quarter ended June 30, 2012.

Turnover rose 35 per cent to 41.38 billion baht from a year ago, due to an increase of sales revenue from the spirits business of 13.1 per cent, the beer business of 10.9 per cent, the nonalcoholic beverages business of 410.5 per cent and the food business of 36.8 per cent.

Sales revenue excluding Serm Suk was 34.72 billion baht, an increase of 13.3 per cent.

Earnings per share for the quarter was 0.20 baht, up from 0.12 baht a year ago.

Source: Business Times

http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/breakin ... -profit-64
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Re: Thai Beverage

Postby winston » Wed Sep 19, 2012 1:56 pm

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THAI BEVERAGE GUNNING FOR NON-ALCOHOLIC SEGMENT

This morning, ThaiBev and Heineken came to an agreement with regards to the sale of APB and the future of FNN. ThaiBev will support Heineken’s bid for APB while Heineken agrees to not make a bid for FNN.

With this development, the EGM on FNN’s sale of APB to be held on 28 Sep (next Friday) is likely to pass without incident. FNN’s share price is also likely to stay capped at S$8.88, which is the price on offer from ThaiBev.

In our view, the prize in ThaiBev’s bid for FNN is the non-alcoholic beverage segment:

• Serm Suk (a ThaiBev acquired bottling plant) has a decades old bottling contract with PepsiCo but due to negotiation failures, the contract has been terminated and will expire later this year (1 Nov)

• Management is unperturbed about this development and has planned the launch of at least two new products to fill the void

• The possible inclusion of F&N products resulting from the FNN/APB deal will benefit Serm Suk.

As a recap, in ThaiBev’s recent 1H12 results, it reported a 33.2% YoY increase in revenue to THB81,983m from THB61,558m due to the inclusion of Serm Suk's operations into its non-alcoholic beverage segment. Excluding Serm Suk's contributions, 1H revenue would have risen by approximately 12.5% only.

We do NOT have a rating on ThaiBev.

There are currently six BUYS onthe counter with an average target price of S$0.50.

Source: OCBC
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Re: Thai Beverage

Postby winston » Fri Oct 12, 2012 9:47 am

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Valuation

Undemanding consensus valuation.

Based on consensus estimates, TB is trading at FY13F PE of 14.8x against a projected EPS growth of 12.7% yoy.

This appears undemanding when compared to regional F&B consumer companies’ 21.7x and 11.9% yoy respectively.


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Re: Thai Beverage

Postby winston » Wed Nov 21, 2012 8:56 am

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Thailand beer and spirits company Thai Beverage said its third-quarter net profit rose 16 percent to 3 billion baht ($97.7 million) from a year earlier, lifted by higher sales volume and prices for its spirits business.

Source: Reuters
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Re: Thai Beverage

Postby winston » Sat Feb 16, 2013 8:18 pm

not vested. TP 0.70

Not just an elephant now

Gaining control of F&N’s brands and extensive distribution network in Singapore, Malaysia, and Brunei could transform Thai Bev/TCC into a regional consumer name.

The grouse that it was a single-country, low-growth beer/spirits company is now no longer valid.

http://www.remisiers.org/cms_images/res ... 13cimb.pdf
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Re: Thai Beverage

Postby winston » Mon Jan 06, 2014 7:37 pm

FCL spin-off could be a prelude to restructuring

On 2 January 2014, the books closed for the subscription for the listing of Fraser Centrepoint Limited (FCL), F&N’s property arm. Each shareholder of Fraser & Neave (F&N) will receive two FCL shares for every one held.

We reiterate our case for a restructuring. The streamlining of F&N’s business should generate up to THB 8bn in synergy gains, in our view.

We maintain our forecasts and price target of SGD 0.72, which implies 33% upside. Maintain Outperform.

Thai unrest should not have a major bearing on Thai Bev’s business.

We expect the ongoing protests in Thailand to cause minimal disruption to Thai Bev’s distribution network in Thailand. It should not hinder consumption.

Spirits sales volumes rose 8%/14% YoY in 3Q/4Q10 after the protests in 2010.

At 14.2x 2013E PER, Thai Bev is trading at a 41% discount to the liquor sector average.

We expect Thai Bev’s core spirits business to generate an operating earnings CAGR of 7% in 2014-17E.



Source: Std Chartered
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Re: Thai Beverage

Postby winston » Mon Jan 20, 2014 7:10 pm

Buy ThaiBev for future growth, says Credit Suisse
By Kang Wan Chern

As the political unrest in Thailand erupts into anti-government protests and threatens to derail the country’s upcoming elections, focus has centred on Singapore-listed spirits and beer maker Thai Beverage. In a Jan 15 report initiating coverage on the stock, international brokerage Credit Suisse issued an outperform call on ThaiBev, which, at 54.5 cents apiece currently, is down by about 25% from its 52-week high of 71 cents.

ThaiBev is the largest spirits maker in Thailand, with a market share of up to 76% in 2012, according to Euromonitor. The Thais also consume the largest volume of spirits in the region, with consumption rising by 6%-9% between 2008 and 2013. As such, spirits generate the bulk of ThaiBev’s revenues and contributed to about 90% of its FY2013 earnings.

However, margins from the spirit’s division have taken a hit over the past few years due to rising excise duties and higher selling costs. In FY2013, ThaiBev’s spirits margins had fallen to about 32% from 36% in FY2006, even though sales volumes were on the rise. Looking ahead though, Credit Suisse believes that further tax hikes are unlikely in the near term, giving ThaiBev pause to recover some lost margins as consumption continues to rise. The brokerage estimates that margins could climb to 34% by FY2016.

Business could also benefit from the current political turbulence, Credit Suisse notes. According to historical data, consumption of spirits typically rises when economic activity falls in Thailand. One reason is because spirits are usually seen as being “a poor man’s drink” because it is cheaper compared to other alcoholic products like beer and wine, and distributed through traditional “mom and pop” stores. “The current political uncertainties in Thailand, we believe, may provide some [shorter term] impetus to spirits consumption in the country,” writes Credit Suisse.

In contrast, ThaiBev’s beer business remains unprofitable. The company brews Chang beer, which has been losing market share to rival Boon Rawd Brewery’s Singha and Leo. Between 2003 and 2013, ThaiBev’s share of the beer market has fallen from 66% to 32%, while Boon Rawd has increased its share from 24% to 58%. Meanwhile, restrictions on alcohol advertising in Thailand have also affected ThaiBev’s efforts to market its beer.

To win back customers, ThaiBev has launched new products and overhauled its distribution channels in recent years. But while demand for beer in Thailand should rise over the longer term as income levels increase and consumers switch from spirits to beer, ThaiBev will need to reduce its fixed costs and adjust the price of its beers to stem losses, Credit Suisse says.

However, with its recent acquisition of Fraser & Neave (F&N), ThaiBev can count on its non-alcoholic beverage business to drive growth in the coming years. F&N has strong distribution networks across Singapore and Malaysia and owns leading brands such as F&N soft drinks, Seasons teas and 100 Plus, which is Malaysia’s top-selling sports drink. The acquisition also extends ThaiBev’s existing non-alcoholic beverage division, which owns Thai soft drinks bottler Serm Suk and Japanese green tea maker Oishi.

Following the spin-off of F&N’s property business in Frasers Centrepoint as a separate listing recently, ThaiBev will now gain full control of F&N’s beverage empire. “Sales of 100 Plus and beverages elsewhere should continue to help grow F&N's total EBIT. The dairies business at F&N should also be a source of steadily growing cash flows…” writes Credit Suisse. “F&N can then provide ThaiBev with medium-term growth outside Thailand."

In that light, Credit Suisse estimates that ThaiBev could be worth up to 60 cents apiece over the next 12 months, implying an upside if about 10%. “Our target price of 60 cents implies 13.6 times EBITDA for the core spirits and beer segments, broadly in line with headline Thai staples valuations. Meanwhile, ThaiBev is more insulated from any economic slowdown. Improved visibility of medium-term growth through non-alcoholic drinks sales can lead to further upside to both earnings and multiples,” writes Credit Suisse.


Source: The Edge
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Re: Thai Beverage

Postby winston » Fri Feb 28, 2014 7:06 pm

Getting a high from alcohol
ADD - Maintained | S$0.51 - TP: S$0.74
Mkt.Cap: US$10,111.00m

Thai Beverage closed out a difficult FY13 on a surprisingly high note.

After the unexpected 4 Sep alcohol excise tax hike caused a two week pause in sales, 4Q EBITDA came roaring back on
1) the implementation of price hikes that more than absorbed the excise duties hike;
2) pent-up demand as channel inventory remains thin; and
3) sale of remnant lower-cost inventory. 4Q sales volume of spirits and beer looked sustainable into 2014, and this could be a catalyst for share price outperformance.

FY13 net profit of Thb19.1bn was 14% ahead of our expectations and 7% higher than consensus.

We nudge up our FY14 EPS higher on raised margins but trim FY15 EPS on expectations of a prolonged cola war.

Our SOTP target price slips slightly to S$0.74. Maintain Add.


Source: DBS
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