Sinotel Technologies

Re: Sinotel Technologies

Postby millionairemind » Sat May 08, 2010 12:35 pm

mrEngineer wrote:Thanks MM for the highlight. Fortunately I have not average down yet. My average price is on the high side of 56cents. Is there any critieria for average down?


I only have one thing to say about averaging down - DON'T. ;)

I wish you all the best in your investment/trading journey. :)
"If a speculator is correct half of the time, he is hitting a good average. Even being right 3 or 4 times out of 10 should yield a person a fortune if he has the sense to cut his losses quickly on the ventures where he has been wrong" - Bernard Baruch

Disclaimer - The author may at times own some of the stocks mentioned in this forum. All discussions are NOT to be construed as buy/sell recommendations. Readers are advised to do their own research and analysis.
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Re: Sinotel Technologies

Postby kennynah » Sat May 08, 2010 1:21 pm

millionairemind wrote:I only have one thing to say about averaging down - DON'T. ;)


in general, i agree with this principal

however, there is just one exceptional case, if the averaging down is part of a trading plan....

let me elaborate :

a) we wont know and usually do not get a very good entry price
b) if we are prepared initially to open a sizeable position; ie multiple contracts/several lots
c) we understand the maximum risk we are willing to take (ie, amount of losses)

in short... if it is pre-planned...then averaging down can be done...but only if risks issue is totally understood.
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Re: Sinotel Technologies

Postby mrEngineer » Thu May 13, 2010 7:53 am

i was just randomly googling and found this blog that comments that Sinotel looks like a major cup & handle pattern. Is it possible?
http://tactcharts.blogspot.com/2010/05/ ... andle.html

What are the conditions required for cup and handle formation? like revenue etc?
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Re: Sinotel Technologies

Postby Musicwhiz » Thu May 13, 2010 9:00 am

Would just like to add that if I did not average down on many of the positions I currently hold, I'd probably not have been able to increase my margin of safety. I did so for Boustead, as well as Tat Hong.

Just my opinions.....I know many on this forum do not advocate averaging down ! :oops:
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Re: Sinotel Technologies

Postby millionairemind » Thu May 13, 2010 9:01 am

mrEngineer wrote:i was just randomly googling and found this blog that comments that Sinotel looks like a major cup & handle pattern. Is it possible?
http://tactcharts.blogspot.com/2010/05/ ... andle.html

What are the conditions required for cup and handle formation? like revenue etc?


Please ignore cup and handle within Singapore mkt.. its too illiquid....

It will probably work in HK market and definitely works in the US market.
"If a speculator is correct half of the time, he is hitting a good average. Even being right 3 or 4 times out of 10 should yield a person a fortune if he has the sense to cut his losses quickly on the ventures where he has been wrong" - Bernard Baruch

Disclaimer - The author may at times own some of the stocks mentioned in this forum. All discussions are NOT to be construed as buy/sell recommendations. Readers are advised to do their own research and analysis.
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Re: Sinotel Technologies

Postby Aspellian » Thu May 13, 2010 9:28 am

On one side Market is irrational.
On the other side, Market knows something you do not know.

Opportunity cost is something you need to weigh too.

A good advice from cif5k is to buy only stocks that GIVES dividends. Show me the $$. It could be argued that its better for companies to keep $$ for expansion. But it may also show that companies are not able to plan or allocate resources well and forgot that being listed means meeting the expectations of ALL shareholders. there are enough stories out there about companies hoarding cash for "expansion" and in the end the cash are in bungalows and ferraris.

I am not trying to "capsize-all-boats-with-one-oar"... the longer you are in this gambling/investing/betting game of stock investing, you are simply trying to increase your odds and probability of success. which is why there's so many people with so many fancy techniques out there. But no single technique is 100% bo-jiak.

Enough has been said about the different screens used. If you are very very confident and has proven time and again that you have a high chance of proving that you are better than Mr Market, then great for you! just a gentle word - you dun have to prove to anyone. its all just about making peanuts right??

There are many many roads to ROME! but sometimes you wont know whether its the road or not till you reach ROME.

The irony again is to increase your probaility of success by:
1) followed the exact path previous proven men have thread
2) think of innovative ways to open new roads
3) buy a Apple iPhone that has a GPS tracking system :lol: :mrgreen: (its working wonders in my life!)

With prices and indexes rising again, it is either Another chance to get out with rising tide OR you will have thought that your initial assessment is right and Mr Market is now rewarding you!! haha!! there's always 2 sides (or more) to a coin.

All of us are given free will - its a life time struggle. Cheers!

PS: I am also in the process of learning.. what is said above is a great reminder for myself too. Thank you very much for sharing and letting us share with you.

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Re: Sinotel Technologies

Postby mrEngineer » Wed Jul 14, 2010 10:14 pm

中国证监会2010年6月10日晚间公告称,在创业板发审委6月10日召开的2010年第33次会议上,乐视网信息技术 (北京)股份有限公司(以下简称乐视网)的首发申请均获通过,该公司是A股第一家过会视频网站,乐视网实际控制人为贾跃亭,这是贾跃亭旗下第二家上市公司,此人据说是山西煤老板出身:

贾跃亭2007年11月12日曾运作一家名字叫西伯尔科技公司(SINOTEL TECHNOLOGIES LTD)在新加坡主板上市,该公司主业是无线通信模块研发与生产运营商平台、软件开发与系统集成以及3G增值服务的企业,招股价为每股2.55元,融资约 2亿元。

乐视网前身是成立于2003年底的北京西伯尔科技无线星空事业部,做手机流媒体业务,2004年该事业部分离,以贾跃亭为出资人设立北京乐视星空信息技术有限公司,2005年公司更名为乐视移动传媒科技(北京)有限公司,2009年2月整体变更为乐视网信息技术(北京)股份有限公司。

乐视网本次计划发行2500万股,发行后总股本不超过1亿股。公司专注于互联网视频及手机电视等网络视频技术的研究、开发和应用,主要从事网络视频基础服务和视频平台增值服务业务。这是IPO业绩:

作为国内A股第一家过会的视频网站,乐视网靓丽的业绩立即引起业界的强烈质疑,国内视频网站仍在烧钱,就在行业排名老大及老二的优酷、土豆也还未盈利,可是乐视网竟然三年前就盈利了,且2009 年度实现收入1.46亿元,净利高达0.44亿元,营业净利率高达31%,且这还是一家走正版路线的视频网站。《创业家》报道称乐视网“神奇“通过创业板审核, 业内惊呼 “荒诞”。笔者浏览了乐视网招股说明书,也怀疑该公司业绩不实,甚至涉嫌严重造假。

一、收入可疑

首先我们来看乐视网的营业收入结构:

视频服务:乐视网主要收入来源是网络高清视频服务收入,近三年分别占主营业务收入的85.56%、71.78%和54.96%;乐视网网络高清视频服务收入主要又来自个人付费用户:

乐视网在招股书中多次强调2009年公司服务的月均活跃付费用户达30 万人以上,并称:

如此简单计算,该公司2009年度来自个人付费用户高达1.08亿元(30*30*12),但2009年度高清视频业务服务收入只有7355万元,且根据上图,乐视网月均付费用户人次岂只30万人次?

业界质疑是该公司既然“截至2009 年12 月,公司服务的月均活跃付费用户达30 万人以上、日独立访问用户约580 万人次,并呈持续增长状态“,但为何该公司流量排名靠后?据《创业家》报道,根据6月10日alexa排名数据,乐视网全球排名1525,中国排175;优酷全球排51,中国排第9;土豆全球排79,中国排13;酷6全球排157,中国排22。

乐视网在中国视频网站连前十都进不了(在国内视频网站排名据说是第17名),包括笔者在内的大多数网友是第一次听说有乐视网这样的一个视频网站,可该网站为何有如此多的付费用户?莫非该网站涉黄,才有这么高的粘性?金融工作者包凡在微博不禁发出感叹:“一个排名十七的视频网站,却有业内第一的财务指标,变戏法啊。”

对此质疑,持有乐视网4.55% 股权的深创投北京分公司总经理刘纲不以为然,刘纲表示,他们应该是没看招股说明书,应该仔细看一下。刘纲称,实际上我注意到了,当时大家提的就这几个问题,第一流量排名19位,我们再看一个数据,在百度提供的专门做影视剧的专业网站排名,他已经在前三名,我想说如果我们拍一个英雄,是免费的大家都可以看,你相信票房怎样?肯定排名第一。在互联网的商业模式中,视频网站中有四种,第一视频分享网站,第二视频搜索,第三P2P模式,第四乐视的点播模式。经过我们公司在08年的深入研究,认为只有点播模式下,在中国目前视频互联网企业会发展的最为快速,实践证明也是这样。

从招股书上看,乐视网竞争对手分为两种,一是个人付费,二是企业付费,而乐视网主要收入来自个人付费,盈利模式的确与行业排名前茅的优酷、土豆、酷6不同:

据招股书披露,乐视网在个人收费视频网站名列前茅:

乐视网在国内视频网站市场份额如下:

乐视网视频服务收入主要来自个人付费,乐视网2009年度还有将近一半的收入来自企业付费,包括广告发布、版权分销及用户分流收入共计6009万元,这些收入也是疑窦重重:

广告投放:乐视网近三年广告投放最大客户均是北京新锐力广告有限公司:

北京新锐力广告公司(以下简称新锐力)2009年度竟然在乐视网投放高达1874万元的广告费,新锐力是2007年乐视网唯一的广告客户,为乐视网带来收入528万。08年继续充当乐视网排名第一的广告客户,贡献营收946.69万。而在这两年中,新锐力却入不敷出,连续两年亏损。工商资料显示,2007年、2008年北京新锐力的销售收入分别为638.63万、1299万,其中主营业务成本为637万、1296万,几乎刚好覆盖其支付给乐视网的费用。

截止2008年末,新锐力资产总额为2415万元,但应收账款为2358万元,应付账款为2367万元,笔者怀疑乐视网广告收入表面上有合同、有发票、有现金流,但这些收入是通过资金运作实现的,乐视网关联方将资金打进新锐力时贷记应付账款,新锐力将资金打给乐视网时借记应收账款,因此导致新锐力账面上有巨额的等额应收账款及应付账款,等额的应收账款及应付账款是资金运作一个典型征兆,笔者建议监管部门从资金入手,层层追查资金源头,看最终资金提供方是不是乐视网的关联方。

版权分销:乐视网 2009年度实现版权分销收入1269万元也相当离谱,该公司招股书一再强调该网站最大特点是正版:截至2010 年4 月,公司拥有电影版权2,324部,电视剧版权43,097 集。可实际上,该公司在版权投入费用并不多,累计只投入5851万元,累计只摊销1069万元:

而该公司前三年版权分销收入累计高达1615万元,亦即站在利润表角度,乐视网购买版权不但没有增加费用,反而创造利润 546万元。一般认为,视频网站购买正版版权会增加运营费用负担,但乐视网正版路线不但没有增加费用,反而增加利润,这可能吗?

用户分流:乐视网2009年通过视频平台用户分流获取的收入达到1046万元,而乐视网所定义的视频平台用户分流是指:“公司从事的视频平台用户分流业务采取与具有相关用户群体的网站进行收入分成的方式实现收益。”乐视网承认,在“报告期内,公司与网络游戏类服务提供商进行合作,建立了初步的网络游戏用户分流模式。”这1046万元的收入都来自于天津世通天宇科技有限公司,据《创业家》报道:这是一家成立于2008年底的网游公司(休闲平台),员工只有30人左右。笔者怀疑天津世通天宇与北京新税力一样,涉嫌与乐视网合谋虚增乐视网收入,重点要核查天津世通天宇的资金来源。

二、资产异常

乐视网除了收入存在明显异常外,资产也存在异常,这是该公司IPO报告期的现金流:

乐视网近三年经营性现金流良好,但投资性现金流净流出巨大,该公司主要的投资现金流出是购买固定资产及无形资产支出,该公司招股书对经营性及筹资性现金流作了明细分析,但唯独对巨额的投资性现金流出含糊其辞:

一般来说,视频网站是一家轻资产公司,但由于乐视网近三年资本性支出金额巨大,导致该网站成为一家重资产公司:

截止2009年末,非流动资产所占比重高达72%,这在IT行业中是非常罕见的,报告期内固定资产及无形资产增长迅猛:

尤其是固定资产,公司的固定资产主要为服务器,截至2009 年末服务器原值8,210 万元,净值7,332万元,约占固定资产的90%,报告期内服务器及服务能力情况见下表:

乐视网2009年并发能力同比增长146%,但固定资产同比增长565%,而服务器价格是是在下降的,故笔者怀疑该公司2009年末固定资产有虚增之嫌;

再看无形资产,乐视网最重要的无形资产实际上并不是版权,而是一项非专利技术:

在原值1.39亿元的无形资产中,最值钱的是投资者投入的非专利技术0.63亿元,据招股书称:

这软件能值0.63 亿元?明显涉嫌虚假出资,虚假出资后果是乐视网每年要增加摊销费用656万元,且这软件摊销期限还能高达10年,笔者怀疑3年都太长了;版权费摊销也是如此,影视剧原版摊销期限也只有3年,该公司称版权费按合同约定的年限摊销,而合同一般约定年限都是5年:再好看的影视剧,3年后基本没有多少人观顾了,该公司竟然敢以5年作为版权费摊销年限,这严重低估了报告期内版权摊销费用,且在中国盗版猖獗背景下,基本上购买版权支出只能作为收益性支出,还想5年摊销?

该公司无形资产账面上还有系统软件1466万元,据招股书称:

系统软件均为2009年开发完成,之前就没有委托开发?这些平台软件是否已取代了五年前贾老板投入的“无线流媒体媒体平台及管理系统V1.0”,难道这么多年过去了,还是V1.0?笔者怀疑这1466万元系统软件也是开发支出资本化,通过关联交易非关联化达到开发支出资本化目的。

小结

综上所述,笔者怀疑乐视网收入来源不明,涉嫌通过资金运作虚增收入;资产不实,涉嫌推迟确认费用导致无形资产虚增,涉嫌虚增经营性现金流入同时虚增资本性支出导致固定资产非正常增长;且涉嫌关联交易非关联化,多家企业客户及供应商疑为关联方
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Re: Sinotel Technologies

Postby mrEngineer » Wed Jul 14, 2010 10:15 pm

As a responsible poster in this forum, I am posting this report to warn any Sinotel investors. I have to admit that this report has made me lose all confidence in the integrity of the chairman of Sinotel.

I apologise for anyone who has taken heed to my previous analysis.

In summary, the report indicates that there are deep accounting irregularities with the other company LeTV that is listed in China which is owned by the same chairman of Sinotel, Mr Jia Yue Ting. It suspects that LeTV of inflating the balance sheets and income statements via external advertising companies and intangibles.

I have yet to verified the values mentioned in the report. But based on my impression on the Sinotel's profit numbers, account receivables data and auditors engaged are not from Big 4, it is highly possible that similar methods were used to inflate Sinotel figures.

Lastly, I have learnt my lesson and lost all confidence in S-Chips completely. If you do not have ability to verify the company figures, its better left not vested.

Not vested anymore.
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