Samudera

[krowten6]

Dear Behappyalways,
Thanks for the information.

Net foreign exchange gain for the last 5 quarters are:
1Q2014: -
2Q2014: US$808k
3Q2014: US$697k
4Q2014: US$373k
1Q2015: US$1,151k

Net foreign exchange gains as percentages of profit attributable to owners of the company are:
1Q2014: -
2Q2014: 19.2%
3Q2014: 13.4%
4Q2014: 8.4%
1Q2015: 18.8%

It appears that Samudera will continue to book good foreign exchange gain.

In addition, out of its fleet if 46 vessels, 15 were chartered in and Samudera will continue to benefit from low chartering rates.

Among Samudera's 46 vessels are 28 container vessels, 2 oil tankers, 7 chemical tankers, 2 gas tankers, 5 marine off shore support vessels and 2 dry bulk carriers. In terms of revenue for 1Q2015, revenue for the container business is USUS69.2m, down 3.1% compared to 1Q2014 because of its efforts to exit non-profitable services. Revenue from the bulk & tanker business recorded a 26.5% decline to USD10.5 million from USD14.3 million, as the Group operated fewer vessels in 1Q15 following the disposal of non-performing vessels in 2014, the non-renewal of the charter-in contract of a chemical tanker upon its expiry at end-2014, as well as the scheduled docking and repair of some vessels during the period. This shows that Samudera's Container Business is much bigger than its Tanker and Bulk Business.

From the management's statements made in 1Q2015 financial report, "While tanker charter rates have remained relatively stable, the bulk and tanker business is expected to be adversely affected by the depressed charter rates of bulk carriers, due to the oversupply situation." What this mean to me is that the smaller Tanker and Bulk Business will not do well but the container business should be doing fine.

From what I heard from a friend in shipping line, demand for container vessels of lower TEUs (< 4,000 TEUs) are of high demand because it is not possible for bigger containers to berth at many small ports in Asia and over the last many years bigger containers have been built and smaller containers have been scrapped.

I believe the prospects for Samudera will continue to be good for FY15.

[behappyalways]

I spent a lot of time reading up on Samudera. Samudera's majority shareholder is Samudera Indonesia which is listed in Indonesia. It would be good to read up on their annual report. They just updated their 2014 annual report. The bulk of Samudera Indonesia's earning came from Samudera Shipping(listed in Singapore) and they consolidated Samudera Shipping result. Samudera Indonesia is trading around 0.4 NTA if I remember correctly. Why it is trading at a discount is because they accounted for their stake in Samudera Shipping at book value which the market value of Samudera Shipping is trading at 0.4X NTA(Kinda like Sunright's situation). If Samudera Indonesia will to adjust their stake in Samudera Shipping at market value, the price to NTA might be close to 1. If one day Samudera Indonesia wants to push up the value of their share price, they either have to delist Samudera Shipping or push up Samudera Shipping's share price.

As bulk of earnings for Samudera Indonesia came from Samudera Shipping, the company kinda depends on the and dividend payout from Samudera Shipping to distribute to their shareholders. So shareholders of Samudera Shipping would benefit from this.

I still think the sell down in early May was due to shortist. If it is from a normal seller, they would try to sell slow at a higher price and not push the price down so fast. My guess is that they need to buy back the shares in the near future. You see some program trading and people trying to push down the price. That seems to me that these people need to push it down to a level for them to buy back. Well it is a risky game because Samudera's 2Q result would be out in late July and hopefully 1st half result would match FY2014 full year result. May or may not happen.....fingers cross.....

[krowten6]

Thanks for the information. Samudera Indonesia's Annual Report is indeed a good read.

I tend to agree with you that a genuine seller will not try to push down the price aggressively. Nonetheless, I am more inclined to look at the fundamental as you have rightly pointed out that chart patterns could be created and there are some very skillful and well-informed market operators in the SGX market.

Profits attributable to owners of company for the last 5 quarters are as follows:
1Q2014 $414k
2Q2014 $4,208k
3Q2014 $5,207
4Q2014 $4,452k
1Q2015 $6,120k

I am cautiously optimistic that 2Q2015 results would be better than 2Q2014 results.

I bought some yesterday and my counter-party is Kim Eng again.

[behappyalways]

I bought some too yesterday. One minus for Samudera is falling revenue which is not good for a company has fixed cost. Falling revenue is partly due to falling shipping rates and grp decision in cutting down on poor performing services. During the AGM, the company states that it is the top 3 in the routes it services but it does not just aim for top 3 in the amount of cargoes it handles but most importantly it must be profitable

Nevertheless they should be able to match last year earnings and with positive cashflow and reduction in debts the dividend paid should be comparable to those paid for FY2014. That is my fall back scenario....I get 7% yield. Anything else positive is a plus and when the share price goes up to my fundamental value I will sell

[krowten6]

Intra-Asia trade driving container shipping demand
http://www.joc.com/maritime-news/trade- ... 50605.html

[behappyalways]

(Prospects for small containerships seems to be good)

UNI-ASIA: Buys 2 containerships for US$36.2 m total
http://nextinsight.net/index.php/story- ... 8-uni-asia

[behappyalways]

Samudera Shipping started at ‘buy’ with 37 cents target price by KGI Fraser
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/en/node/214232

[behappyalways]

Samudera Shipping Line
http://markets.solvith.com/wp-content/u ... 150707.pdf

[behappyalways]

Improve Your Returns With These 3 Great Foreign Stocks
http://seekingalpha.com/article/3369315 ... ign-stocks

[behappyalways]

(Falling revenue.....)


2Q2015
http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/Samuder ... eID=362534