From UOBKH:
DOWNGRADE TO SELLCurrent Price: S$3.19
Fair Price: S$2.75
(Previous: S$3.32)
Analyst
K Ajith
(65) 6590 6627
[email protected]Results
FY09 pre-tax profit (PBT) was below ours and market expectation but net profit at S$443.9m was within market and our estimate. Dividend payout was
cut from 100% to 90% as a prudent measure on expectations of an uncertain economic environment and greater forex volatility. STE emphasised it does not repatriate cash from overseas due to withholding tax.
• Top-line was boosted by Marine (+3%) and Electronics (+20%) segments.
Higher shipbuilding revenue for the marine and rail infrastructure projects in China for the electronics segment accounted for the growth.
• PBT was flat with Aerospace segment dragging down earnings from the other segments. This was mainly due to lower margins on the aircraft
maintenance segment. Land systems division saw revenue declining 6%, but PBT rising 13% due to improved margins for the automotive
segment.
• A 116% increase in stock obsolescence in the Land Systems division also impacted Group PBT. This was due to provision for contracts that
were not delivered.
• FY09 also benefitted from S$39m in job credits and excluding that, PBT and net profit would have been negative.
• PBT was also impacted by higher interest charges from the US$500m notes issuance.
• Orderbook fell from S$10.6b to S$10.3b, but this excluded a US$500m letter of intent which would have raised orderbook to S$11b.
• JAL has indicated commitment towards payables but post restructuring, there is the risk of lower MRO works.
• Free cash flow rose 43% to S$448m, but net cash flow excluding funds from the bond issue and debt repayments was negative. This suggests
that the current modus operandi of high dividend payouts is unsustainable.
Valuation/RecommendationThis is the first time in 10 years that STE cuts its dividend payout from 100% to 90%, suggesting concerns over cash flow. We downgrade the stock to SELL and value the stock at S$2.75. This is derived by regressing 2-year average forward ROE and book value to historical average P/B multiples. At
S$2.75, the stock will be trading close to its mid-cycle PE multiple of 18.5x.