InvestIdeas

if I trade based on TA, it would be very wrong principally of me to second guess the chart pattern.

Suppose, I'm gunning for a bearish continuation after price breakdown neckline, reverted back to 2.10 neckline resistance n put in my bearish position, then thereafter, price continue to move up, I must admit my losses n move on. If I start wondering, I might as well don't use TA at all.

I might as well use the "i wonder" analysis. U agree?

For the bigger pattern, I think anyone following TA would have sold (or mabye even short) as it gapped below the 2.10 neckline on 5th Feb. I would have. So only the 'serious' holders (probably FA people) are left.

So if you were bearish, as in your example, and you got stopped out by the last bar today, you would have to cut your losses. The chart would have broken your expectations... and alot of other peoples. I'm wondering if you could then turn around and go long?

I don't think I'm second guessing... the pattern was broken, by the last bar today.

Got the idea from a book 'Getting started in chart patterns' by Thomas Bulkowski, with a chapter called 'Busted patterns'. I think in Schwager's "Stock Market Wizards", Mark Minervini also alludes to this. Something like: the failure of a pattern may be part of a wider pattern.

i agree... using chart patterns must be in the context of time frame..this one, i learn foremost from Grandrake right here in this forum....

so, if i read the pattern within a 3 months period, then any of my bearish position, if i instituted them once the neckline was broken, would and should have been out since last bar.. and since i looked at the last 3 months only, i should not want to worry myself about 4months to 10 years ago.... i am trading it...not investing in it...

would i go Long?... i should... but i wont...becos, since i lost on this trade... fedup already.... i go look for other plays... but this is just my style...

Thanks for sharing...v helpful for me to hear from other more experienced people's views... hard to know when to apply things read from books when betting real money... and when market conditions change so suddenly.

thanks for the discussion too.... cant say i am more experienced than anyone here... in any case, in this business, it's really 活到老，学到老... never ending process....

cheers

February 24, 2010, 5.56 pm (Singapore time)

Straits Asia FY09 net profit up 7%

By EMILYN YAP

Straits Asia Resources on Wednesday posted a net profit of US$133.5 million for the full year ended Dec 31. This reflects a 7.3 per cent growth from the previous year.

Sales revenue rose 27.9 per cent year-on-year to US$748.4 million.

The group is proposing to pay out a final cash dividend of 2.03 US cents per share for FY2009.

Not vested. From OCBC:-

Straits Asia Resources: Conference call with new CEO

Summary: Straits Asia Resources Ltd (SAR) hosted a post FY09 results conference call last evening, during which its new CEO Mr Martin Purvis allayed concerns over management continuity. 70% of its FY10 output has been committed to date, but as the pricing of most of these contracts is index-linked, the group’s earnings remain exposed to price volatility.

Management guided for lower thermal coal prices in the range of “high US$60s to mid US$70s” in FY10 vs. its ASP of US$82.14/ton in FY09. We expect higher production volumes to partially offset the impact of lower selling prices on the group’s revenue. On the operational front, production at the re-zoned Sebuku area looks to be delayed pending approvals from the Indonesian government, while a replacement facility for the failed Jembayan loading facility is being planned.

We have fine-tuned our estimates and lift our fair value estimate to S$1.76 (from S$1.73). Maintain SELL. (Lee Wen Ching)

Not vested. From CIMB:-

Straits Asia Resources Limited (S$1.99) - Narrowing profitability

Maintain Neutral on SAR due to limited upside potential with a lower DCF-based target price of S$2.09 (from S$2.37). We have lowered our production forecast and ASP assumptions, and raised cost assumptions following recent discussions with management.

This leads to a 6-16% downgrade in our FY10-12 EPS estimates, which reduces our DCF-based target price to S$2.09 (from S$2.37). Approval for Northern Leases is expected to come in mid-FY10, with production to commence only in 2H11.

Despite strong coal prices, management expects FY10 ASP to be in the high US$60s to mid-US$70s only. A pending reserves upgrade is likely to be a non-event. We see potential catalysts from earlier-then-expected approval for Northern Leases, which we believe is unlikely, or a sharp and sustained spike in coal prices.

most brokerages calling for sell yet it still continue to move up.. any reason?

these brokerages are buying from the sellers...