Thai Beverage

Re: Thai Beverage

Postby winston » Tue Jan 14, 2020 6:21 pm

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Thai Beverage PLC – Beer Losing (from) Interest
Date: 26/11/2019
Source : PHILLIP CAPITAL
Price Target : 0.80
Price Call : SELL

Revenue and earnings were below our forecast.

Earnings suffered from less fair value gains in associate Frasers Property (FPL) and loss in the beer division.

Volumes were healthy for spirits and beer but gross margins suffered.

More than 100% of 4Q19 PATMI is from the spirits division.

Dividends for the year raised by 23% to Bt0.48 (S$0.021).

Downgrade to REDUCE.

We lowered our SOTP-derived TP to S$0.80 (previously S$0.83) as we cut FY20e earnings by 5%.

We lowered our margins and raised interest expense estimates.

Outlook for FY20e is dependent on government support for farm income.

Earnings from Sabeco will be under pressure from interest expenses and contribution to the group will be minimal.

Source: Phillips

https://sgx.i3investor.com/servlets/ptres/13902.jsp
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Re: Thai Beverage

Postby winston » Tue Jan 14, 2020 6:23 pm

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Thai Beverage - FY19 Missed Expectations; Finance Costs Still a Drag
Date: 25/11/2019

Source : UOB KayHian
Price Target : 0.90
Price Call : HOLD

Thai Beverage reported 4QFY19 net profit of Bt3.4b, up 11% y-o-y.

Full-year core PATMI made up 93%/94% of our and consensus estimates, missing expectations.

The key negative came from the beer segment’s PATMI, which dropped to a net loss for the quarter as it continued to be weighed down by finance expenses.

Dividend payout ratio remained similar to the FY18 level.

Thai Beverage is trading close to its historical mean at 19.4x FY20F PE.

Maintain HOLD with a target price of S$0.90.

Entry price: S$0.78.

Source: UOBKH

https://sgx.i3investor.com/servlets/ptres/13918.jsp
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Re: Thai Beverage

Postby winston » Tue Jan 14, 2020 6:28 pm

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Thai Beverage - Healthy Volume Growth
Date: 25/11/2019
Price Target : 0.95
Price Call : HOLD

Move to NEUTRAL from Take Profit, with higher Target Price of SGD0.95 from SGD0.92, 7% upside and 3% yield.

Thai Beverage recorded FY19 PATMI of THB23.3bn, in line with our expectation, but 7% below consensus’ estimate.

Higher finance costs dragged down earnings growth despite strong revenue.

Thailand’s alcohol demand showed strong improvement in 4QFY19 (Sep) due to Government stimulus measures.

We expect this consumption momentum to follow through in 1QFY20.

As such, we increase our FY20F- 21F earnings by 2-3%, which raises our Target Price to SGD0.95.

Source: RHB

https://sgx.i3investor.com/servlets/ptres/13901.jsp
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Re: Thai Beverage

Postby winston » Tue Jan 28, 2020 10:18 am

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Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)
Curbing Vietnam’s Enthusiasm


A new drink-driving law in Vietnam has dampened expectations in the high-growth
market for Thai Beverage, with local reports of beer sales being heavily affected since
the new regulation was enacted on 1 Jan 20.

We see more severe effects for Sabeco if Vietnam’s regulatory rules encompass wider public restrictions.

Maintain HOLD and SOTP-based target price of $0.90. Entry price: S$0.75.

Source: UOBKH

https://research.uobkayhian.com/content ... 08d3530709
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Re: Thai Beverage

Postby winston » Mon Feb 10, 2020 9:41 am

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ThaiBev Considering a Singapore IPO of $10 Billion Brewery Business

By Ishika Mookerjee, Elffie Chew, Joyce Koh, and Vinicy Chan

November 29, 2019

Listing could be the biggest in Singapore since 2011
Deal could include ThaiBev’s assets in Thailand and Vietnam

Source: Bloomberg

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... y-business
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Re: Thai Beverage

Postby behappyalways » Sun Feb 16, 2020 5:49 pm

ThaiBev posts 14% rise in 1Q earnings on higher revenue
https://www.theedgesingapore.com/capita ... er-revenue
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Re: Thai Beverage

Postby winston » Mon Feb 17, 2020 9:33 am

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ST Vietnam headwinds, but LT value intact

1QFY9/20 net profit (+13.6% yoy) was in-line with expectations at 32.7%/32% of our/consensus FY20F due to higher margins.

Future quarters could be hit by sluggish sales growth in Vietnam, while Covid-19 outbreak could impact 2H20F. We cut FY20-22F EPS.

Reiterate Add due to its longer-term outlook, but with a lower SOP-based TP of S$0.90 as we cut forecasts and lower SABECO valuations.

Besides earnings cuts, we believe weakness in SABECO’S business and macro headwinds could weigh on any appetite for an IPO of THBEV’s beer business, which could lead to potential delays.

Source: CIMB

https://rfs.cgs-cimb.com/api/download?f ... F4CC2B0873
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Re: Thai Beverage

Postby winston » Mon Feb 17, 2020 10:08 am

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Upgrade To BUY On Low Price Levels
Buy (From Neutral)
Target Price (Return): SGD0.92 (16%)
Price: SGD0.79
Market Cap: USD14,167m
Avg Daily Turnover (SGD/USD) 13.7m/10.1m
Source: Bloomberg

Upgrade to BUY from Neutral, new TP of SGD0.92 from SGD0.95, 16% upside with c.3% FY20F (Sep) yield.

Thai Beverage’s share price has fallen by 11.8% YTD on the back of market volatilities amidst the COVID19 outbreak.

We believe the decline in share price is unjustified, as we estimate 60-70% of Thaibev’s products are consumed off-premise – so it is less likely to be affected by the virus outbreak.

Due to its strong 1QFY20 results, we upgrade our call to BUY.

Source: RHB

https://research.rhbtradesmart.com/atta ... 22c4bb.pdf
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Re: Thai Beverage

Postby winston » Mon Feb 17, 2020 10:35 am

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Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)
1QFY20: In High Spirits But Cautious On Challenges Ahead


THBEV reported 1QFY20 net profit of Bt8.4b, up 13.6% yoy, ahead of expectations.

Spirits sales volume grew strongly, with domestic volume up 7% yoy, while margins were stronger on the back of lower raw material prices and admin and selling expenses.

COVID-19 will have a larger impact on on-premise trade but THBEV noted a low proportion of on-premise trade for its beverage business.

Maintain HOLD and target price of S$0.90.
Entry price: S$0.75.

Maintain HOLD and SOTP-based target price of S$0.90.

We value:
a) the spirits business at 17x EV/EBITDA, in line with global peers’;
b) the beer business at 15x EV/EBITDA, in line with peers’ average;
c) the NAB business at 2x EV/sales, a slight discount to peers’ 3.0x and
d) the food business at 14x EV/EBITDA, in line with local peers’.

FPL and FNN, in which THBEV owns 28% each, are valued based on market value.
Entry price is S$0.75.

Source: UOBKH

https://research.uobkayhian.com/content ... 9f1bb055cf
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Re: Thai Beverage

Postby winston » Mon Feb 17, 2020 5:24 pm

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Thai Beverage Public Company (THBEV SP): BUY
Market Cap: US$14,163m
Average Daily Value: US$11.00m
Price Target: S$1.04 (Upside 32.1%) (Prev S$1.04)


Alcohol guards against virus infection

1Q20 attributable net profit up 14% y-o-y despite high base last year, exceeding expectations
Robust domestic Spirits volume, NAB profitability helped drive performance Covid-19 worries unlikely to have major impact
Results reflect resilient performance, YTD share price retreat unwarranted, maintain BUY

Maintain BUY with TP at S$ 1.04. ThaiBev’s share price is down YTD, possibly on concerns of flagging growth in the Thai economy and the impact of drink driving laws in Vietnam.

With a strong start and robust 1Q20 results, we believe this should allay concerns. We maintain our BUY recommendation and TP of S$ 1.04, and retain our positive stance on the counter.

1Q20 net profit up 14% y-o-y; ahead of expectations. ThaiBev reported a strong 1Q20, with core attributable net profit growth of 14% y-o-y to Bt8.4bn, while revenue was up 4% to Bt 75.7bn. This came ahead of our expectations, and the pleasant surprise came largely from a strong Thai domestic spirits and beer volume growth, registering 7% and 13.5%, respectively.

Valuation is reasonable at 17.1x FY20F PE, which is below its historical 5-year forward average PE of 22x.

Where we differ? High gearing mitigated by strong OCF. The market could be skeptical of its high gearing. We believe this should not be an issue as management has termed out its borrowings and able to repay/ refinance its obligations with its strong cashflow. We opine that deleveraging remains among the key priorities of management.

Potential catalysts. Stronger volume picks up in Thailand, better performance from Saigon Beer Alcohol Beverage Joint Stock Company (Sabeco), faster turnaround in non-alcoholic beverages, and deleveraging through monetisation of assets.

Valuation:
Our TP remains at S$ 1.04, implying 32% upside from current price of S$ 0.79. Our TP is based on sum-of-parts valuation, derived via discounted cashflows of its core operations, and fair values for stakes in listed associates.

Key Risks to Our View:
Expectations of continued upturn in demand misplaced. Our thesis is premised on continued demand recovery on the back of an uptick in farm income, support in consumption from government stimulus; and if this is not sustained or misplaced, it could present downside risks.

Source: DBS

https://researchwise.dbsvresearch.com/R ... bfdhkfdhjg
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