From CIMB:-
In line. 1QFY08 net profit of Rmb 142m represented 21.1% and 22.5% of our and consensus FY08 forecasts, in line with our expectations. Turnover grew 10.8% yoy despite a drop in sales volume due to the supply shortage and the closure of the Dezhou plant.
Although gross margin shed 4.7%pt yoy to 8.3% due to higher procurement costs, this already represented a big improvement from 2QFY07 when tight hog supply forced closure of its Dezhou plant, a move that cut its production capacity by 30%.
• Encouraged by sequential improvement in margins on change in product mix.
Gross margin showed sequential improvement from 7.0% in 4QFY07 to 8.3% in 1QFY08 on better pass through of higher costs and higher contribution of downstream products from 29% of sales in 4Q07 to 33.5%.
The group has also made good progress in boosting its fresh pork sales whose contribution to sales rose from 19% in 4Q07 to 22.8% while frozen pork contribution declined from 31.8% to 27% in 1Q08. Pretax margins expanded for all except for HTMPs likely due to weakness in gross margin as a result of higher hog prices.
HTMP market remains the most competitive where ASP increases are more difficult to implement.
• Expect better sales and profitability as hog supply improves.
Dezhou plant recommenced operation in March as hog supply improves. As a result we expect slaughtering volume to pick up starting 2Q. That said, we maintain our view that hog supply will only increase materially in 4Q08 hence live hog prices are likely to hover at high levels in the near term. We expect the group to continue strengthening its fresh pork and LTMP business which is positive for its long term growth.
• Maintain Outperform with an unchanged target price of S$1.31.
The share price has risen only 7.4% since our upgrade to outperform in March after the group released its FY07 results. We believe current share price does not reflect Pfood’s earnings recovery, thus we maintain our Outperform recommendation. We continue to value the stock using discounted cash flow (WACC 13.5% and LTG 2%) which gives a target price of S$1.31, equivalent to 9.4x CY09 P/E.
Not vested..