Macquarie International Infrastructure Fund

Re: Macquarie International Infrastructure Fund

Postby winston » Fri Aug 10, 2012 11:12 am

not vested

Results in line with our expectations: MIIF exhibited a strong showing in its H1FY2012 results, with net income up by S$15.2mil to reach S$19.6mil.


Major overreaction view played out well for us: In an earlier company update, we noted that a sharp decline in MIIF’s share price from ex-div 57c to 50c on 5 June 2012 was a major overreaction to the estimated impact of the enforced reduction of toll rates from CNY0.75/km to CNY0.60/km on HNE.

At that point, we highlighted that this would present an attractive entry point. MIIF is currently trading at 54.5c. Factoring in the impact of lowered tariffs and the opening of Guanghe Expressway, we are presently valuing HNE at S$128.3mn.


A tantalizing 10% yield: MIIF has declared a 2.75c dividend in the half-year ending June 2012 and has guided for a 2.75c dividend in the second half. This translates into a very enticing yield of 10.2%.

Our fair value now stands at S$0.654, which means that MIIF offers capital gains potential of 20%. This, coupled with a 10% yield, makes MIIF an attractive play in the current market climate. BUY.


Source: AmFraser
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Re: Macquarie International Infrastructure Fund

Postby winston » Fri Aug 10, 2012 11:19 am

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Macquarie International Infrastructure Fund (MIIF) has declared 2.75Scts dividend for 1H12, and guidance for 2H12 maintained at similar level.

But dividends are unlikely to be sustainable at this level in FY13 and beyond, as income from expressway asset is set to reduce substantially.

Downgrade to HOLD with TP of S$0.58 (Prev S$ 0.62)

Source: DBS
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Re: Macquarie International Infrastructure Fund

Postby winston » Tue Oct 23, 2012 6:52 pm

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The key question, clearly, is whether a 25% discount to book value, is overpricing in the aforementioned concerns.

We believe so and have a target price of S$0.670 on MIIF.

Moreover, as stated in our earlier report, we believe a strategic review currently undertaken by MIIF is likely to act as a positive catalyst and potentially trigger a re-rating of the stock.


Source: AmFraser

http://www.remisiers.org/cms_images/res ... 121023.pdf
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Re: Macquarie International Infrastructure Fund

Postby winston » Wed Nov 07, 2012 4:42 pm

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MIIF Q3 earnings fall to S$40.62m By Angela Teng

Macquarie International Infrastructure Fund Ltd on Wednesday reported a fall in net profit for the third quarter ended Sept 30, 2012 to S$40.62 million from S$45.52 million a year ago.

Revenue for the quarter fell to S$43.1 million from S$47.9 million in the previous period.

Earnings per share for the quarter fell to 2.43 cents, from 3.34 cents.

For the nine months ended Sept 30, 2012, net profit rose to S$60.24 million from S$49.7 million.

Revenue increased to S$67.99 million from S$58.36 million.


Source: Business Times
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Re: Macquarie International Infrastructure Fund

Postby winston » Thu Nov 08, 2012 9:34 am

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A real head-turner: As we roll over our estimates and lower our expenses forecast for FY2013, we raise our fair
value to S$0.680.

This means that MIIF provides capital appreciation potential of around 19.3%, not to mention its superior 10% dividend yield.

Furthermore, we see upside risks pending the outcome of MIIF’s strategic review.


Source: AmFraser

http://www.remisiers.org/cms_images/res ... 112012.pdf
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Re: Macquarie International Infrastructure Fund

Postby winston » Mon Nov 12, 2012 2:04 pm

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Valuation and Recommendation.

Management has reaffirmed its dividend guidance of 2.75 Scts per unit for the six months ending 31 Dec 2012, bringing a total dividend of 5.5Scts per unit in FY12.

However, we expect a reduction in FY13 annual dividend due to weaker distribution expected from HNE in FY13.

Recently, management engaged CIMB Bank as its independent financial advisor to undertake a strategic review to consider alternatives, including asset divestments and revision of MIIF’s mandate that could further enhance unit holder value.

In light of the review, the buy-back mandate has been suspended since Oct 10, 2012.

Using DCF and assuming a 20% discount to asset valuation, as previously, we maintain our target price of $0.575.

Our downward revision to distributions has been offset by fewer shares as a result of share buy-back. Pending insights from the review, we remain Neutral on MIIF.

New management initiatives, following the strategic review, could provide upside catalyst.


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Re: Macquarie International Infrastructure Fund

Postby winston » Tue Dec 18, 2012 7:28 am

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Outcome of Strategic Review

http://info.sgx.com/webcoranncatth.nsf/ ... penelement
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Re: Macquarie International Infrastructure Fund

Postby winston » Wed Dec 19, 2012 11:02 am

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STOCKS NEWS SINGAPORE-Macquarie Intl Infrastructure rises

Units of Macquarie International Infrastructure Fund Ltd (MIIF) rose as much as 3.2 percent, after it announced a one-off special dividend following a strategic review.

By 0239 GMT, MIIF units were traded at S$0.645 and have risen 21.7 percent since the start of the year.

After a strategic review done by MIIF's board, it decided to implement certain initiatives such as distributing existing excess cash to shareholders as a one-off special dividend and seek to divest some of its assets.

"MIIF's latest move should enable the fund to further realise its net asset value given the decent quality of the remaining underlying assets, but no timeline has been set to avoid any impression of a fire-sale," said DMG & Partners in a note.

DBS Vickers raised its target price on MIIF shares to S$0.65 from S$0.58 and kept its 'hold' rating on expectations investors could receive a special dividend of 3 Singapore cents, on top of a final dividend of 2.75 Singapore cents for the second half of 2012.

However, it noted that it could be difficult and time consuming for MIIF to realise the true values of its investments, given the uncertainties involved in the process.

Source: Reuters
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Re: Macquarie International Infrastructure Fund

Postby winston » Mon Jan 07, 2013 1:37 pm

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Valuation and Recommendation. Taking into consideration working capital requirements and assuming the four assets will be successfully divested over the next two to two-and-a-half years, we estimated a one-off special dividend of about 5 cts per share will be distributed to shareholders.

lthough there is no disclosure on the timing of declaration of special dividend, we believe it is likely to come together with the declaration of final dividend for FY12, which management guided at 2.75 Scts per shares, during the release of FY12 results in Feb 2013.

Using DCF and assuming TBC is sold at close to valuation, HNE and CXP are disposed at a 20% discount to asset valuation each due to policy risk (toll rates) at HNE and a minority stake holding in CXP while MW is sold for a modest value as the asset is not distribution-yielding due to low wind speed, we value MIIF at $0.66.

A higher than expected valuation achieved on asset disposal will offer upside catalyst to the share price.

Maintain Neutral.


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Re: Macquarie International Infrastructure Fund

Postby winston » Tue Jan 08, 2013 10:16 am

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Unearthing the treasure chest

Macquarie International Infrastructure Fund (MIIF) has concluded its strategic review on December 18 2012 with a decision to divest its assets namely Taiwan Broadband Communications (TBC), Changshu Xinghua Port (CXP), Hua Nan Expressway (HNE) and Miaoli Wind Company (MWC), as well as return excess existing cash to shareholders. The divestment of the assets is likely to take 12-18 months.

· We expect a one-off special dividend of 4.03 cents per share, on top of a regular dividend of 2.75 cents per share, to be distributed in February 2013. Excess cash available for distributions should amount to approximately S$46.4mil.

· Current valuations for MIIF’s assets are certainly not demanding, with CXP, HNE and TBC valued at S$101.6mil, S$140.2mil and S$492.8mil respectively. We believe MIIF is unlikely to face significant difficulties in offloading its assets at current valuations and could potentially realise a slight premium over its current valuations, given the yield-hungry climate and the assets’ strong cash flow generation.

The recent deals of Taiwanese cable TV operators Kbro and China Network Systems were completed at EV/EBITDA multiples of 11-12 times, which could serve as a benchmark for TBC’s valuation. TBC has a EV/EBITDA multiple of 10x.

· Regulatory risk already factored into HNE’s valuation. MIIF has already written down the book value of HNE by S$75.8mil to factor in the impact of recent toll adjustments. We are therefore comfortable that HNE’s current valuation could serve as a good proxy to its future sale price.

· A cash windfall. Based on the current book value of its assets, we estimate that MIIF’s asset divestments would generate distributable income of 63.2 cents after factoring in management fees. In our opinion, the variable portion of the management fees is likely to be structured as a percentage of the asset sale prices in order to keep management’s interests better aligned with those of shareholders’. We assume that variable management fees would represent 1% of the asset sale prices.

We raise our fair value for MIIF to 70.0 cents per share from 68 cents, and may make further adjustments pending further visibility on asset divestment plans.

Source: AmFraser
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