Noble Group 01 (May 08 - May 10)

[winston]

Noble Group nearly trebled its Q1 net profit to reach a record US$167 million, after seeing strong tonnage growth among its largest business divisions plus a disposal gain.

For the quarter ended March 31, 2008, the group reported sales of US$9.5 billion - up 132 per cent from US$4.09 billion for the year-ago period. Earnings per share were 6.41 US cents - up from 1.81 US cents previously. During the period, Noble said tonnage volume rose to a record 39 million tonnes, a year-on-year rise of 56 per cent.

Shipments of key bulk commodities - coal and coke, iron ore, and grain all doubled year on year, reflecting continuing strong end-user demand. At the segmental level, its agriculture business posted revenues of US$2.1 billion, up 87 per cent, while volume tonnage rose 22 per cent to 3.4 million tonnes.

'Noble's increasingly integrated supply chain operation links our South American sourcing operations to key import countries which provide strong demand and distribution outlets,' said the group.

Under its energy segment, Q1 revenue nearly trebled to US$5 billion from US$1.75 billion, supported by a substantial rise in tonnage volume and higher energy prices.

[winston]

Singapore Hot Stocks-Noble hits record high after strong Q1

SINGAPORE, May 9 (Reuters) - Noble Group rose as much as 10.6 percent to an all-time high of S$2.81 a day after the commodities firm said its first-quarter earnings had nearly quadrupled on strong demand for food, energy and raw materials.

About 6.6 million shares changed hands in the first half-an-hour of trade.

"We believe that the shares will continue to outperform over the next six months, driven by broker upgrades and increased investor attention," Cazenove analyst Alistair Griffin said in a clients note.

Griffin kept his "outperform" investment rating for Noble and raised his share target price to S$3.67 from S$3.27.

[winston]

From Lim & Tan:-

Noble’s results for the seasonally slow first quarter are simply remarkable:

- Only in Agriculture (grains, edible oil products) were there signs of a seasonal slowdown, and
even then, business fared better than normal.

- Actual tonnage of the various commodities it handles via all 4 divisions, others being Energy
(coke and coking coal), Metal & Minerals (iron ore, aluminium) and Logistics (now operates 195
vessels vs 190 at end ’07) rose by 57% y-o-y to 39 mln tones, reflecting strong real demand in
China and India, and not just the work of hedge funds as often alleged in the commodities market.

- Net profit almost tripled to US$1167 mln producing 41.5% ROE, and an equally stunning 71% growth sequentially.

- Even if the US$48 mln profit from the sale of equity stake in Consolidated Mines were excluded, profit still more than doubled to US$119 mln from US$43.82 mln a year ago, for a ROE of 29.7%.

- Financial strength is also noted, despite gross borrowings rising 20% to US$3.06 bln: readily
marketable inventories represent 93% of total inventories; gross debt to Ebitda improved to
3.5x from 5.2x at end 2007.

And what is again reassuring is management’s, or more specifically, the indefatigable CEO Richard
Elman’s continued confidence going forward, specifically in the areas of iron ore in Brazil, coal in
Australia, ethanol in Brazil (the only country in the world where the use of, in this instance, sugar for ethanol production is not at the expense of human consumption) and oil seed crushing in China.

However we maintain Take Profit into strength, as there will likely be other early birds waiting to
do so: the commodities market is red hot (Mr Elman described Q1 as “very trying”, using the analogy of the little legs of a duck paddling away like mad), and volatility is likely to increase as we go along.

We have also taken into account the following:
- Noble will be participating in the Merrill Lynch Rising Stars Conference from May 13-15 (note
however it will be one of many many participants).
- Noble will likely trade ex-bonus / dividend around May 20th.
- The conversion price for the 2014 Convertible Bonds has been adjusted to $2.31 from $2.779,
after the bonus issue.

[winston]

From OCBC:-

Noble Group Ltd: Raising our fair value following a phenomenal 1Q08

Summary: Noble Group Ltd (Noble) surpassed our expectations with its 1Q08 results. Revenue soared 132% YoY to US$9.5b while net profit surged 281% to US$167.1m. Excluding the US$47.8m exceptional gain from the disposal of its stake in Consolidated Minerals Ltd, net profit would still have risen by a credible 172% to US$119.3m.

Noble's strong showing was backed by broad-based growth across all its segments. Its key performance indicators, such as gross profit per ton and profit margins, recorded marked
improvements. To factor in its better-than-expected 1Q08 results, we are raising our FY08 sales and earnings estimates by 26% and 37%, respectively.

We maintain our BUY rating on the stock, and raise our fair value estimate to S$3.30 (from S$2.54). (Lee Wen Ching)

[winston]

From DBS:-

Noble Group nearly trebled its Q1 net profit to reach a record US$167m. Sales came in at US$9.5 bn, up 132% yoy. This was due to strong tonnage growth among its largest business divisions plus a disposal gain.

Shipments of key bulk commodities - coal and coke, iron ore, and grain all doubled year on year, reflecting continuing strong end-user demand.

Noble also expects the strong momentum seen in its shipment volumes to continue into the second quarter.

[winston]

From Phillips:-

Great start
12 May 2008

Strong results to mark the beginning of a good year. Noble Group Limited (“Noble” or the “Group”) registered above expectation numbers for 1QFY08. Revenue was up 132% YoY on the back of strong tonnage volume growth of 57% YoY. Gross profit was at US$355.0 million, up by 168% YoY. Net profit attributable to shareholders was US$167.1 million, up 281% YoY.

Exclude the one-time gain of U$47.8 million as a result of the equity stake disposal of Consolidated Minerals, Noble’s net profit would stand at US$119.3 million, up 172% YoY. Overall, Noble’s 1QFY08’s net profit of US$167.1 million (or US$119.3 million excluding one-time gain) represents 65% of FY07’s bottomline (or 46% if excludes one-time gain).

All four business segments performed beyond expectations. Driven by strong demand for bulk commodities such as grains, coal and coke, and iron ore, Noble’s business segments registered double-digit growth in tonnage volume.

Gross margins also improved, particularly from the Agriculture and MMO1 business segments. While 1QFY08 saw higher average revenue per ton for all segments, we do not think that this is the sole reason for better margins. We believe Noble’s
strategic investments and acquisitions along the various supply chain pipelines are also vital in widening the margins.

Beyond FY08, we expect gross margins to maintain around current level. Further, as indicated in previous report (dated 11 March 2008), we hold a positive long term view for Noble’s Agriculture and Energy business segments. Demand for grains (such as soybeans and wheat) will remain strong while coal will be the main growth driver for Noble’s Energy segment.

Strong BUY. Earnings estimates revised up to reflect strong 1QFY08 results.
Our estimates for FY08 and FY09 are revised upward in view of a strong first quarter. Excluding the one-time net gain in 1QFY08, our bottomline estimates were revised up by 38% for FY08 and 35% for FY09.

Our revised fair value of S$3.26 for Noble is derived from our dividend discount model which translates to a FY09 P/E of 14.3x and P/B of 2.6x. We rate Noble with a strong BUY and investors are advised to accumulate on this counter upon price
weakness.

[helios]

possible reversal: e candlesticks r uptrending, but losing momentum coz rsi hovering ard 70%, might form reversal pattern soon if e dark clouds formed. %K topped at max, might turned downwards.

possible to touch @ 2.20 - 2.25??

[winston]

Not vested anymore.

SINGAPORE, June 12 (Reuters) - Commodities firm Noble Group may be in focus on Thursday after Credit Suisse started coverage with an 'outperform' rating and a price target of S$3.45 per share.

[Aspellian]

Hi W,

I am looking to find a local proxy to the agricultural boom.

now narrowing down my search to Noble, China XLX and China Farm. I will think its reasonable to accumulate Noble on weakness of general market. this will be a remarkable year for Noble.

Thanks for highlighting this counter!

[helios]

oh aspellian,

u r quite a specific person.

thank you for e sharing & con't to do your brainstorm'g here.