Noble Group 01 (May 08 - May 10)

[Musicwhiz]

haha... all these weren't a problem when market was going up

I don't know la, but these things make me sit up if I got long positions. When sellers overwhelm buyers, stock prices drop. That's all I need to know.

Even though I do my own FAs, I don't believe that there is an "intrinsci value" to a stock where buyers will come to support the stock. If there was, we wouldn't have seen STI at 800 during the AFC.

My FAs tell me which stocks to buy, my TAs tell me when to buy them if I go long..

TA also tells me when to sell them. This is the part where FA will fail. Cos' by the time all the bad news and quarterly earnings are out, the stock might have dropped 50%.

Hi MM,

I understand where you are coming from. The power of "FA" as you call it is only as good as the practitioner. If you assess a company wrongly or missed something out (and something goes awry with the business), then it's a lesson learnt. Analysis can only get you so far - the future is always uncertain, which is why there is something called the "equity risk premium".

As for stock prices, yes they do get pummelled to a pulp now and then due to sentiment. This is not to say the underlying business has any problems though - it's something for the enterprising investor to dig out. Of course, if one wanted to sell and buy back later, there's nothing wrong with that. Just make sure you are indeed buying back something of quality, and which has not permanently deteriorated or been impaired!

[newbieinvestor]

commodities prices will keep rising in the future.. noble and olam will be a good hedge.. i agree partly with musicwhiz, these 2 stocks are highly speculative recently and both has corrected more than sti. However, i think both are still attractive to long term investors. I believe at the current price, Wilmar is almost fully valued.

[Musicwhiz]

Net margin at 1.78% for FY 2009, wow is this normal for the industry?

Profit attributable to shareholders down 4% year on year.

Inventories nearly doubled, while cash has fallen from US$1.3B to US$937M. Meanwhile, debt has gone up, both short term and long-term. A quick glance shows that total bank loans roughly doubled from a year ago, while Senior Notes increased by about US$400M....Noble is in a net debt position of about US$2.755 billion.

Net cash OUTflow from operating activities was a high US$810M, while short term financing activities brought in US$42.6M. Investing activities drained a large pile of US$1.1billion. All these were, of course, financed by debt. US$1.35 billion was raised through financing, out of which US$1 billion was through bank loans and another US$835M through Senior Notes.

With such cash flows, it's no wonder the Company gave the option to choose scrip dividend. It probably needs all the cash it can get.....

[millionairemind]

SHORT?
February 23, 2010, 6.07 pm (Singapore time)

Noble's FY09 net profit falls 4% to US$556m

By CHEW XIANG

SINGAPORE - Noble Group on Tuesday said net profit for 2009 fell 4 per cent to US$556 million, from US$577.3 million in 2008.

Revenues were 14 per cent down at US$31.2 billion, compared to US$36.1 billion in 2008.

Earnings per share correspondingly fell to 16.03 US cents, from 17.46 US cents.

The global supply chain manager of agricultural, metals, minerals and ores, and energy products handled 180.3 million metric tons, up 27 per cent from 2008 with a number of business divisions reporting record tonnage volumes.

[winston]

Not vested. from Lim & Tan:-

Solid China / Commodities Play S$3.12-NOBL.SI

What will likely please investors is the proposed 6-for-11 bonus issue, on top of the 1st & Final dividend
of 3.6 US cents, up from 4.4 US cents a year ago, before adjustment. The dividend will cost the company US$146.14 mln vs US$68.01 mln in 2008. (Shareholders may, as for 2008’s payout, opt for scrip dividend in lieu of cash.)

Richard Elman’s focus in his usual “letter” to shareholders is succession planning, with him now as Executive Chairman (from CEO) and Ricado Leiman, the new CEO (formerly the COO). The issue has been of some concern to some institutional investors.

The 2009 performance is creditable, after stripping out the exceptionals, eg US$141.4 mln negative goodwill in Q2 ’09, and the US$139.5 mln gain from the investment disposal in 2008.

Q4’s performance was however affected by 87.7% owned subsidiary Gloucester Coal, whose profit decline announced 2 days ago was no great surprise given the drop in coal prices, until recently. (Gloucester will be sold to MacArthur Coal, under a deal announced just before Christmas, such that Noble will end up with a 24% in the latter, the largest independent coal producer of Australia.)

At $3.12, Noble trades on 15.7x historic PE.

With China Investment Corp, which holds a 15% stake in Noble, likely in acquisition mode in the commodities arena for a long while, which implies Noble’s likely participation, we remain bullish on Noble; hence maintain BUY.

[winston]

NOBLE GROUP - Commodity trader Noble Group is seeking an extension to an $800 million loan it took last year and could increase it and push for lower pricing, banking sources said on Tuesday.


Source: Reuters

[millionairemind]

Share placement......

http://info.sgx.com/webcoranncatth.nsf/ ... penelement

[Aspellian]

Share placement, good or bad? more liquidity? as if Noble not liquid enough?
Or he just wants the money in pocket and get ready to retire? A cool S$356mln!! Congrats to the Dude!

[millionairemind]

Just looking at the chart, this ticker has a habit of going down for several days once it breaks the 10DMA....

[Musicwhiz]

Share placement, good or bad? more liquidity? as if Noble not liquid enough?
Or he just wants the money in pocket and get ready to retire? A cool S$356mln!! Congrats to the Dude!

He wants to cash out and retire, but they conveniently call it a "placement". If you sell your shares in the open market, it also goes to other parties right? I don't see the difference.

Call it packaging and marketing. Noble really knows how to make something sound good.....