InvestIdeas

DJ MARKET TALK: CIMB Raises People's Food Target To S$0.63

0350 GMT [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: CIMB raises People's Food (P05.SG) target price to S$0.63 from S$0.37 after rolling forward valuation to end-2010 from end-2009.

( rollover can change Target Price by so much ? )

Forecasts EPS CAGR of 22.9% over FY09-11 for China-based pork supplier on stronger topline growth stemming from higher hog prices, improving margins. Says pig farming project well on schedule, with facility expected to be fully operational by end-2010 or early 2011, allowing company to iron out supply issues.

( CAGR of 23% ? )

Still, keeps Underperform call; "we believe the market has more than factored in next year's earnings recovery." Stock +4.0% at S$0.78.

Source: Dow Jones Newswire

What's a rollover?

When they look further ahead..

Example: As we are now in October 2009, we should not be looking at end 2009 anymore. We should look at end 2010 instead...

See CIMB above. They were forecasting EPS CAGR of 22.9% over FY09-11. How can the "experts" be so far off and what chance does mere mortals like us have ?

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PEOPLE'S FOOD HOLDINGS - China food company People's Food Holdings reported on Tuesday a 59 percent drop in net profit to 85.6 million yuan ($12.54 million) for the third quarter ended September.

Not vested.

Brandes Investment sold 1.7m shares. Still owned 4.93%

winston wrote:See CIMB above. They were forecasting EPS CAGR of 22.9% over FY09-11. How can the "experts" be so far off and what chance does mere mortals like us have ?

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PEOPLE'S FOOD HOLDINGS - China food company People's Food Holdings reported on Tuesday a 59 percent drop in net profit to 85.6 million yuan ($12.54 million) for the third quarter ended September.

Precisely because they are "experts" at predicting events, and are not businessmen themselves. That's why they get it very wrong quite consistently.

May 14, 2010, 6.07 pm (Singapore time)

People's Food Q1 net profit trebled

By ANGELA TAN

People's Food Holdings Ltd said on Friday that its net profit for the first quarter of 2010 trebled to RMB133.87 million due to the significant increase in gross profit.

The commerical pig farmer saw its revenue increased by 30.4 per cent during the quarter to RMB2.84 billion due to increased demand and higher average selling prices.

Not vested

People's Food ST: as long as 0.607 is support look for 0.714 <PPFH.SI>

Click here to see our chart:
http://www.tradingcentral.com/chart/PFH ... 021411.gif

Our pivot point stands at 0.607.

Our preference: as long as 0.607 is support look for 0.714.

Alternative scenario: the downside breakout of 0.607 would call for 0.578 and 0.561.

Comment: the RSI is above its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is positive and below its signal line. The stock could retrace in the short term. Moreover,the stock is trading under its 20 day MA (0.66) but above its 50 day MA(0.66).

Supports and resistances: 0.732 *0.714 **0.696 0.66 last 0.619 0.607 **0.578

Source: Reuters

Not vested

People's Food ST: the downside prevails as long as 0.677 is resistance <PPFH.SI>

Click here to see our chart:
http://www.tradingcentral.com/chart/PFH ... 032328.gif

Our pivot point is at 0.677.

Our preference: the downside prevails as long as 0.677 is resistance.

Alternative scenario: the upside breakout of 0.677 would call for 0.704 and 0.721.

Comment: the RSI is below 30. It could either mean that the stock is in a lasting downtrend or just oversold and therefore bound to retrace (look forbullish divergence in this case). The MACD is negative and below its signalline.

The configuration is negative. Moreover, the stock is trading under bothits 20 and 50 day MA (standing respectively at 0.66 and 0.66).

Supports and resistances: 0.704 *0.677 **0.666 0.635 last 0.603 0.587 **0.572 *


Source: Reuters

The danger of using TA to trade.

On Sept 27, the graph says up.

Just one week later, the graph says down.

Has anything change in the past week ? In fact, the markets were very strong ...