Orchard Parade Holdings 1Q08 Results - BUY
Previous Day Closing price: $1.25
Recommendation: BUY (maintained)
Target price: $2.58 (reduced from $3.10)
Significant improvement in core earnings
Welcome to Singapore
Orchard Parade Holdings (OPH) delivered a 1Q08 net profit of $16.6m, a 225% improvement Y/Y, despite seeing a 44.5% decrease in sales to $17.2m. The lower revenue was mainly because there was no property sale in 1Q08. Adjusting for fair value gains on investment properties and unrealized losses on financial assets, PBT of $11.2m far exceeded our expectations due to its better than expected hospitality operations.
Slow flow for Floridian
OPH is already feeling the benefits of the increased tourist arrivals and the resultant higher Average Room Rates (ARR). Revenue from its hospitality business and rental income from its investment properties have increased by $4.1m, mainly attributable to higher ARR at Orchard Parade Hotel.
While the availability of hotel rooms remains tight despite increased tourist arrivals, we expect OPH to continue to enjoy improved hospitality revenue.
YHS boosted by large tax reversal
Sales of Floridian remains at a standstill, mirroring the general outlook in the Singapore private residential property market.
Our latest check shows only 5 caveats lodged, averaging at $1,690 psf. We maintain our average selling price assumption of $1,600 psf for the entire project, but have also adjusted our profit recognition schedule.
Undervalued assets
OPH's share of associated companies profits jumped 136.7% to $4.7m, principally due to a 146% increase in Yeo Hiap Seng's PATMI of $9.5m. However, the earnings were boosted by a $11.8m tax write-back from YHS property division and its core earnings remain weak.
YHS expects its F&B business to continue to face pressure on its selling price due to intense competition and rising raw material and energy costs. Construction of the Jardin is expected to commence soon and YHS should be able to recognise some profits from it in FY08, even as sales have been slow up till now.
OPH's hospitality business continues to outperform, underpinning earnings as the stalemate in the residential market continues. We adjust our profit recognition schedules for Jardin and Floridian, reducing our FY08 and FY09 forecasts by 43% and 27.7%.
Maintain our BUY recommendation with a target price of $2.58, based on a 20% discount to RNAV.
Source: Kim Eng