EcoWise 5CT

Re: EcoWise 5CT

Postby helios » Wed Jul 30, 2008 12:42 pm

chaibu wrote:Hi LP

What you need to do is to make that site visit happen.


Pick an auspicious date, my dear guys!

I just execute this arrangement with the PR finance company. EG: We could all meet at a consolidated venue.

i went to visit SULO before ... haaa ... it is also very near to ecoWise. Want to go?
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Re: EcoWise 5CT

Postby la papillion » Wed Jul 30, 2008 12:59 pm

Hi chaibu,

Take a look at this:

Year---------highest price-------lowest price-------EPS*----------PE(high)---------PE(low)
2008----------0.27----------------0.17-----------1.27cts**
2007----------0.94----------------0.2------------5.67cts----------16.5------------3.5
2006----------0.21----------------0.07-----------4.41cts----------4.8-------------1.6

* EPS is based on diluted shares holding
** Forecasted EPS (by me), includes extraordinary gains


Take note that the financial year for ecowise ends in oct, while my data for the highest and lowest adjusted closing price is based on 1st jan and 31st dec on that year. Shouldn't make much difference, I hope.

Ecowise's website is so sucky that I cannot even find more data for FY05,04 and earlier. This is extremely not illustrative, do bear this in mind. But we can sort of figure how low the historical PE is. I think I'll only give them a PE of at most 5 - and that's stretching it a little too much already, I feel. That makes it $0.064 per share. If we use my forecast for their EPS without extraordinary gains, it's even worse - only $0.023 per share, haha :) Coincidentally, using EPS of 1.27 cts x PE multiple of 16.5x gives us $0.210 - the current price.

That reminds me why I'm not even thinking of owning this company. Unless they do a lot more to convince me, the combined factors of increasing shares outstanding, wanton issuance of rights, poor investor relations, lack of a concrete and real growth engine, this company will at most be filed under my keep-in-view folder.
An investment operation is one which, upon thorough analysis promises safety of principal and an adequate return - Benjamin Graham
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Re: EcoWise 5CT

Postby kennynah » Wed Jul 30, 2008 1:12 pm

That reminds me why I'm not even thinking of owning this company. Unless they do a lot more to convince me, the combined factors of increasing shares outstanding, wanton issuance of rights, poor investor relations, lack of a concrete and real growth engine, this company will at most be filed under my keep-in-view folder.

if u have your way, you'd strike them off the listing man....hor? :lol: :lol:
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Re: EcoWise 5CT

Postby la papillion » Wed Jul 30, 2008 1:24 pm

kennynah wrote:That reminds me why I'm not even thinking of owning this company. Unless they do a lot more to convince me, the combined factors of increasing shares outstanding, wanton issuance of rights, poor investor relations, lack of a concrete and real growth engine, this company will at most be filed under my keep-in-view folder.

if u have your way, you'd strike them off the listing man....hor? :lol: :lol:


Haha, if i have my way, i'll turn you into mickey mouse - the black mouse with a white face or is it the white mouse with black body? Oh no, i'm confused now :)
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Re: EcoWise 5CT

Postby la papillion » Wed Jul 30, 2008 1:25 pm

San San wrote:
chaibu wrote:Hi LP

What you need to do is to make that site visit happen.


Pick an auspicious date, my dear guys!

I just execute this arrangement with the PR finance company. EG: We could all meet at a consolidated venue.

i went to visit SULO before ... haaa ... it is also very near to ecoWise. Want to go?


What's SULO, san? :)
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Re: EcoWise 5CT

Postby helios » Wed Jul 30, 2008 1:30 pm

diverting the topic, here's sulo: http://www.sulo.com.sg

do you see those colorful collector bins, spouting like mushrooms, planted near our estates? the singapore operation company altvater jakob is the operating entity of Sulo who has merged w Veolia regionally.
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Re: EcoWise 5CT

Postby kennynah » Wed Jul 30, 2008 1:38 pm

la papillion wrote:Haha, if i have my way, i'll turn you into mickey mouse - the black mouse with a white face or is it the white mouse with black body? Oh no, i'm confused now :)



you mean this micky mao ?

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Re: EcoWise 5CT

Postby helios » Wed Jul 30, 2008 6:45 pm

la papillion wrote:Hi chaibu,

Take a look at this:

Year---------highest price-------lowest price-------EPS*----------PE(high)---------PE(low)
2008----------0.27----------------0.17-----------1.27cts**
2007----------0.94----------------0.2------------5.67cts----------16.5------------3.5
2006----------0.21----------------0.07-----------4.41cts----------4.8-------------1.6

* EPS is based on diluted shares holding
** Forecasted EPS (by me), includes extraordinary gains


Take note that the financial year for ecowise ends in oct, while my data for the highest and lowest adjusted closing price is based on 1st jan and 31st dec on that year. Shouldn't make much difference, I hope.

Ecowise's website is so sucky that I cannot even find more data for FY05,04 and earlier. This is extremely not illustrative, do bear this in mind. But we can sort of figure how low the historical PE is. I think I'll only give them a PE of at most 5 - and that's stretching it a little too much already, I feel. That makes it $0.064 per share. If we use my forecast for their EPS without extraordinary gains, it's even worse - only $0.023 per share, haha :) Coincidentally, using EPS of 1.27 cts x PE multiple of 16.5x gives us $0.210 - the current price.

That reminds me why I'm not even thinking of owning this company. Unless they do a lot more to convince me, the combined factors of increasing shares outstanding, wanton issuance of rights, poor investor relations, lack of a concrete and real growth engine, this company will at most be filed under my keep-in-view folder.


since the FY ends in OCT, i would like to plan for a visit in mid-august, probably after the NDP week, either on a Fri or Sat AM.

i'll check with them on their plant scheduled (available) dates, and update accordingly.

in terms of business and legal ethics, i don't think they will reveal the business contract for carbon credits, unless the contract is in near completion (phases). for business operators, there could be a non-disclosure legal and binding clause.

what is the value if all the fundamental information is already in the market, and everyone is trading on the same usage piece of information?
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Re: EcoWise 5CT

Postby iam802 » Wed Jul 30, 2008 8:51 pm

San San wrote:what is the value if all the fundamental information is already in the market, and everyone is trading on the same usage piece of information?


is this the market is efficient theory?

I think even if everyone has the same information, the outcome will be different.
1. Always wait for the setup. NO SETUP; NO TRADE

2. The trend will END but I don't know WHEN.

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Re: EcoWise 5CT

Postby Rontan » Wed Jul 30, 2008 11:12 pm

I used to hold this counter, m quite impressed with their business, you know, recycling is a hot topics these days. And of course, the carbon credit thing, seems promising. However, after attending the last AGM, my view change and I have since disposal off all my shares, with a little kopi money..keke.. :D

And if u want to know why I have a changed mind..okie...I can share, but this is purely my own view hor...

Reason 1 - The carbon credit stuff is not going to be a big revenue contributor for EcoWise. It may not even be recurring. This is very technical, and I am not a technical person. In short, a company will need to "save" some credit and then sell it to others that need more credit. This is not a product that you can produce and sell. It is more of a by-product. (Note: my understanding may be wrong as I have said I am not a technical person)

Reason 2 - They have stock option for staff, well that is okay. But what surprise me is that the exercise price is $0. The management said that they will give stock options if "certain" targets are achieved.

Reason 3 - When a very very senior staff of the company was asked on what he thinks the fair value of the share price should be, his answered that the company share price should worth $0.XX cents, using a PE of 15. :o I hope the ah pek and ah mam shareholders do their homework first before throwing their hard earned money in. For SGX counters, many solid, big cap companies don't even command a PE of 15.

Above are based on my recollection of the AGM which happened a few months back. Anyone here attended the AGM would like to confirm or counter the above?
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