Asiatravel.com

[winston]

Not vested. I've used their service though. Not too reliable during peak periods. But how many people travel during off-peak periods ?

==================================
From Kim Eng:-

Asiatravel 1HFY08 results (Johnny TEO, DID: 64321431)
Previous Day Closing price: $0.52
Recommendation: Buy (maintained)
Target price: $0.79 (maintained)

Results in line with expectations despite slight hiccup in March
AsiaTravel’s (AST) net profit grew by 38.1% Y/Y to $3m (46% of our full-year estimates) on the back of a Y/Y growth of 30% in revenue to $44m for 1HFY08. This was largely due to the increased hotel room reservations and the maiden 6-month contributions from air tickets bookings. Its gross margin declined by around 1 full ppt Y/Y which is, on the contrary, positive for AST. (Refer to our initiating coverage for the explanation).

Deepen its regional flight departure footprint
AST is slated to increase the number of departure points from Asia on top of Singapore, Thailand, Indonesia, Hong Kong, China, Philippines and UAE. Following this, AST will start its launchpad for flights departing from the US, Europe and Australia into Singapore. This will increase the number of hotel bookings as travelers who concurrently search and book flights and hotels can have more varied choices.

More shifting from off-line to on-line channel
Though Mar 08 reported a low Y/Y growth of 12% in room nights, its overall 2QFY08 still grew strongly at 23% (better than the 17% Y/Y of 2QFY07). The low growth is due primarily to flu in Hong Kong and the traffic congestion at the causeway linking Singapore and Malaysia (due to the Mas Selamat incident). However, its growth has been back on track, as AST has already seen a growth rate of 29% Y/Y in the first two weeks of April.

Dual core engine reving fast forward
AST saw good maiden contribution from its air tickets sales in 1HFY08. Together with hotel reservation, this dual engine is expected to catalyze the forward earnings. Riding on this simultaneous surge in dual engine, we are confident in AST for achieving our full year FY08 net profit forecast of $6.5m.

This is notwithstanding the additional traffic-flow when the full one-stop instant confirmation booking engine (includes other travel products such as travel insurance, cruise, golf and tour packages) comes online by end of FY08.

Dirt cheap compared to Ctrip
We continue to promote Asiatravel as an M&A target within the radar screen of interested parties in the online travel space. We feel that AST is cruising on fast track towards the likes of Ctrip, a mainly domestic player in the PRC who currently commands a premium valuation of 35.8x FY09F PER. DPS of 0.9 cents is proposed for 1HFY08 (0.55 cents in 1HFY07). We roll over our forecast and maintain our SOTP target price of $0.79. This puts AST at only 14.4x FY09PER. Maintain BUY

[winston]

AsiaTravel.com Holdings Ltd reported that revenue increased by 21.58% (S$15.20 million) to S$85.75 million for the financial year under review when compared to S$70.53 million in the previous corresponding year.

Cost of sales rose by 24.52% (S$12.47 million), which was broadly in line with the increase in the Group’s revenue. The Group’s net profit after tax and minority interest for the period increased by 21.77% (S$0.99 million) amounting to S$5.51 million as compared to S$4.52 million in the previous corresponding year. This was a direct result of the increase in the Group’s revenue.

[winston]

Asiatravel.com stays positive about online bookings By NISHA RAMCHANDANI

ONLINE travel service provider Asiatravel.com Holdings posted an overall 3 per cent year on year growth in total online monthly room nights for 1Q FY2009, ended 31 December 2008.

The figure was dragged down by the closure of Bangkok's Suvarnabhumi Airport in November, as Thailand is a core destination for the group. 'If not due to the closure of the Bangkok Airport, we would have achieved stronger room night growth in the 1Q FY2009,' Asiatravel said in a statement on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, online air ticket sales - a relatively new service - was up 44 per cent compared to 4Q FY2008.

'The global economic recession has affected the tourism industry. However, we believe that the online hotel and travel reservation segment will be able to weather the recession and continue to record positive growth going forward,' Asiatravel said.

[winston]

Not vested. And what about Swine Flu ?

From DBS:-

Potential to go places
( A few years ago, I thought they have potential too. After a few years, we are still talking about their potential .. )

• Will benefit from higher tourist arrivals after opening of Singapore IRs, FY09-11 EPS CAGR estimated at 34%

( Why ? )

• Scalable business model implies incremental revenue can flow almost directly to the bottomline

• Strong in-house technical capabilities and relationships with hotel owners make it an attractive M&A target

• Initiate coverage with BUY, target price of S$0.72 offers 24% total return potential (includes 3% dividend yield)

Trusted presence in the online hotel booking space. Armed with a state-of-the-art booking engine providing instant confirmation of hotel rooms and a physical presence in key destinations (unlike most online agents), Asiatravel.com is well positioned to serve the growing number of Internet-savvy travellers in Asia. It has direct contacts with hoteliers and can offer both prepaid and postpaid booking options to customers.

Bundle & Package. The Group has leveraged its existing customer base to introduce outbound flight bookings on its site and growth in this segment has effectively compensated for the downturn in hotel business in FY09. While FY09 EPS will still register a decline y-o-y, we expect earnings to rebound in FY10 and FY11 with a CAGR of 34%, on the back of higher tourist arrivals and room rates. The opening of the Integrated Resorts in Singapore will provide further fillip and might herald the Group’s entry into the online pre-booked tour package space.

Scalable Model. With strong technical platforms, and tie-ups with technical partners and wholesalers already in place, Asiatravel.com is capable of handling about 10 times current traffic without significant increase in capex or operating expenses. In other words, increases in revenue should flow almost directly to the bottom line at minimum incremental costs.

Initiate with BUY, DCF-based TP of S$0.72. Despite generating higher ROEs (31%) than most online/ travel companies, the Group has historically traded at a discount to its peers. With its proprietary software and pan-Asian customer base, it is also an attractive M&A target, in our opinion.

[Aspellian]

Not vested. And what about Swine Flu ?

From DBS:-

Potential to go places
( A few years ago, I thought they have potential too. After a few years, we are still talking about their potential .. )

• Will benefit from higher tourist arrivals after opening of Singapore IRs, FY09-11 EPS CAGR estimated at 34%

( Why ? )

• Scalable business model implies incremental revenue can flow almost directly to the bottomline

• Strong in-house technical capabilities and relationships with hotel owners make it an attractive M&A target

• Initiate coverage with BUY, target price of S$0.72 offers 24% total return potential (includes 3% dividend yield)

Scalable Model. With strong technical platforms, and tie-ups with technical partners and wholesalers already in place, Asiatravel.com is capable of handling about 10 times current traffic without significant increase in capex or operating expenses. In other words, increases in revenue should flow almost directly to the bottom line at minimum incremental costs.

I ENTIRELY agree on the Scalable Model part - but relating to competition.
1) easily available technical platforms
2) tie-ups easily obtain - why should hotels or airlines limit to only 1 website?
3) handling of 10 times traffic - so great!! especially if those living in MARS and PLUTO also booked through Asiatravel.com!
4) Little capex required to increase traffic - low barrier of entry; a group of IT-savvy high school guys with a few sweet voices can start such a website.
5) increases in revenue! - yes - of cos - but its spread across competitors! i have no doubt that industry as a whole has greater revenue and customer base - but will it flow so much into Asiatravel website ONLy?

There are too many of such travel booking websites - i couldnt even remember which was the last 3 websites i went to when i booked my previous 3 holidays... asiaroom.com? tripadvisor? or is it 2 other names??? i just get the best deal each time! and ASIATRAXEL was none each time....

PS: this forum is great as i begin to questioned the assumptions used by analysts - especially the non-factual and based on textbook (fantasy - perfect world) judgement where each company operates ALONE with NO competitors!

Lots of room to learn and grow as an investor - hopefully not a cynical and judgemental person!!

[winston]

Not vested

Singapore Hot Stocks- Asiatravel.com falls on poor earnings

SINGAPORE, Nov 29 (Reuters) - Shares of online travel reservation site Asiatravel.com fell as much as 6.7 percent to a near 5-month low after it reported lower-than-expected full-year net profit, a local trader said.

At 0309 GMT, Asiatravel.com shares were down 4.4 percent at S$0.43 with over 595,000 share changing hands, higher than its average 5 day volume of 517,400.

Asiatravel.com said its net profit for the year ended Sept 30 fell 70 percent to S$1.6 million, compared with S$5.5 million a year ago, due to higher operating costs.

Kim Eng Securities also downgraded Asiatravel.com to "hold" and lowered its target price to S$0.47 from S$0.62 due to the weak earnings.

"We see potential for Asiatravel to scale up its business but we expect fiscal 2011 earnings to remain suppressed as the company intends to continue its marketing activities into first half of 2011," said the brokerage in a report.

Source: Reuters

[winston]

not vested

Online hotel and travel site Asiatravel.com said it made a net loss of S$1.6 million for the full year ended Sept. 30, compared with a net profit of S$1.6 million the year before, weighed by higher advertising and promotion expenses.

Source: Reuters

[winston]

Shares in Asiatravel.com leapt more than 9% as talk that China-based e-commerce giant Alibaba could be poised for a stake in the company made a return trip to the market.

[winston]

not vested

Asiatravel.com says in talks with several parties but no firm deal yet By Angela Tanangelat

ASIATRAVEL.COM Holdings Ltd reiterated on Thursday that the company is in "varying stages of discussions with several potential parties to explore different opportunities for strategic collaboration and/or mergers and acquisitions''.

But the company, whose share price has surged on speculation of interest from e-commerce giant Alibaba, stressed that "there is no certainty nor assurance as at the date of this announcement that any of these discussions will materialise into any agreement, muchless the completion of any material transaction''.

Asiatravel.com shares rallied 9 per cent on Wednesday on renewed talk that Jack Ma's Alibaba might take a stake in the travel booking portal.

Market rumours of a possible suitor for the Singapore company first started circulating about two weeks ago, sending the stock soaring to 38 cents.

Source: Business Times

[behappyalways]

Chinese firm mulls takeover bid for Asiatravel.com; shares jump 13%
http://sgx.i3investor.com/servlets/fdnews/54017.jsp