by winston » Thu Jul 09, 2026 8:30 am
A Strong El Niño Is Building. It's Hitting a World Already on the Edge.
NOAA confirmed El Niño on June 11 and temperatures in the central Pacific are already 1.7°C above average — strong enough to trigger the worst-case scenarios.
There's an 89% chance it reaches "strong" intensity by December and a 62% chance of a "Super El Niño."
It's arriving as the world is still reeling from the largest oil supply disruption in history and a global fertilizer price spike.
Which regions face the highest flood, drought, typhoon, and supply chain risks
Why the Panama Canal could face 2023-style transit restrictions again
How El Niño could push food insecurity toward famine conditions in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia
Which countries are most at risk of recession, political instability and insurgency escalation
The stakes are enormous: USAID cuts have gutted the humanitarian infrastructure that previously blunted El Niño's worst effects.
The UN Food and Agriculture Organization is already seeking $202 million to respond and facing a funding gap.
The 1997 El Niño was bad — this one is hitting harder, faster and into a weaker global system.
Source: RANE Worldview
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"